本文關鍵詞： 手足口病 季節(jié) 發(fā)病率 流行病學研究　出處：《中國學校衛(wèi)生》2017年07期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：目的分析氣象因素對手足口病發(fā)病的影響,為傳染病預防控制提供科學依據。方法利用廣義相加Quasi-Poisson模型,對北京市海淀區(qū)2008—2014年手足口周發(fā)病數(shù)的時間序列和同期氣象因素的關系進行分析。結果北京市海淀區(qū)2008年1月1日至2014年12月31日手足口病共報告33 704例,平均周報92例,發(fā)病率為143.8/10萬。其中男性20 718例,女性12 986例,男女性別比為1.60∶1。全年各月均有報告,發(fā)病高峰主要出現(xiàn)在5—8月,共發(fā)病24 460例,占發(fā)病總數(shù)的72.57%。2008—2014年發(fā)病率總體呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,其中2009年發(fā)病率最低,為94.2/10萬(2 904例);2010年發(fā)病率最高,為216.9/10萬(7 115例)。發(fā)病呈現(xiàn)明顯的季節(jié)性,發(fā)病高峰主要集中在夏、秋季。當平均溫度、相對濕度、日照時數(shù)分別超過閾值(9.1℃,40.2%,7.7 h)時,每增加1個單位,手足口發(fā)病人數(shù)分別增加4.81%(95%CI=3.99%~5.64%)、0.30%(95%CI=0.10%~0.50%)、2.02%(95%CI=0.63%~3.43%),且趨勢均有統(tǒng)計學意義(P值均0.05)。當大氣氣壓低于閾值(1 014.5 k Pa)時,大氣氣壓每降低1 k Pa導致手足口發(fā)病人數(shù)增加5.76%(95%CI=4.52%~7.01%)。結論氣象因素可能是手足口發(fā)病的一個重要影響因素,在今后的疾病防控工作中應予以考慮。廣義相加模型可應用于分析手足口病與氣候因素的相互關系。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease and to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of infectious diseases. Methods the generalized additive Quasi-Poisson model was used. The relationship between the time series of incidence of hand and foot mouth and meteorological factors in Haidian District of Beijing from 2008 to 2014 was analyzed. Results from January 1st 2008 to December 31st 2014, 33 704 cases of hand, foot and mouth disease were reported in Haidian District, Beijing, with an average of 92 cases reported weekly. The incidence rate was 143.8 / 100,000,000. Among them, 20,718 males, 12,986 females and 1.60: 1.The incidence peak occurred in May to August, accounting for 24,460 cases, accounting for 72.57% of the total incidence in 2008-2014. In 2009, the incidence rate was the lowest (94.2 / 100 000) in 2 904 cases, and in 2010 the incidence rate was the highest (216.9 / 100 000 ~ 7 115 cases). The incidence showed obvious seasonality, and the peak of incidence was mainly in summer and autumn. When the mean temperature, relative humidity, When the hours of sunshine exceeded the threshold of 9.1 鈩，

本文編號：1505098