發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-19 11:13

  本文選題：非法疫苗 + MAXENT模型　； 參考：《山東科技大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：自“山東濟(jì)南非法經(jīng)營疫苗系列案件”披露后,該事件影響范圍廣泛,引發(fā)社會(huì)各界人士的高度關(guān)注和重視,引起公眾、受種者和兒童家長對(duì)涉案疫苗安全性和有效性的擔(dān)憂。科學(xué)嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)胤治錾姘敢呙缃臃N在中國可能波及的空間范圍,為采取后續(xù)處置措施提供依據(jù),保障受種者的健康,盡快恢復(fù)公眾接種疫苗的信心,是本研究的主要目的。在生態(tài)學(xué)中,解決物種分布適宜區(qū)的問題通常采用物種分布模型(species distribution models,SDMS)推測(cè)物種在某一地區(qū)的適生性分布。本次研究借鑒物種適宜性分布預(yù)測(cè)方法,分別利用最大熵模型(MAXENT)和規(guī)則集遺傳算法模型(GARP)在地理空間上對(duì)非法疫苗在中國地區(qū)的潛在分布范圍進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)。MAXENT模型是根據(jù)物種現(xiàn)實(shí)分布點(diǎn)和物種分布區(qū)域的環(huán)境預(yù)測(cè)物種的潛在分布區(qū),其結(jié)果要優(yōu)于同類的其他預(yù)測(cè)模型。本文應(yīng)用生態(tài)位模型和GIS技術(shù)對(duì)涉案疫苗在中國區(qū)域內(nèi)可能波及范圍進(jìn)行估計(jì),明確涉案疫苗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)的空間分布及主要影響因子,以期為政府采取后續(xù)處置措施提供依據(jù)。并利用受試者工作特征曲線比較不同模型模擬精度。實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明:1 )MAXENT模型和GARP模型都較好的預(yù)測(cè)了非法疫苗的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū),山東、河北、河南、江蘇、安徽是主要的受涉案疫苗影響的高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)。2)人口密度、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)是影響非法疫苗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)空間分布的主要環(huán)境因子。3)GARP模型得到的結(jié)果分析:產(chǎn)生了連續(xù)范圍較大的潛在分布區(qū),在沒有非法疫苗的地區(qū)也產(chǎn)生了過多預(yù)測(cè)的破碎化分布;而MAXENT預(yù)測(cè)到的潛在分布區(qū),在不同區(qū)域具有不同的環(huán)境適生性指數(shù),而且成功地排除了不合理的破碎化分布,與采集到的真實(shí)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)比分布區(qū)吻合度較高,從而更準(zhǔn)確地展示了非法疫苗流入的潛在分布格局。
[Abstract]:Since the disclosure of the case of "the illegal Operation of Vaccine Series in Jinan, Shandong Province", the incident has affected a wide range of people from all walks of life, and has aroused public concern and concern about the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine involved, as well as among the public, grantees and parents of children. The main purpose of this study is to scientifically and rigorously analyze the space range of the vaccination involved in China, to provide the basis for the subsequent disposal measures, to protect the health of the seed recipients and to restore public confidence in the vaccination as soon as possible. In ecology, species distribution models are usually used to predict the suitable distribution of species in a region. This study draws lessons from the prediction method of species suitability distribution, The maximum entropy model (MAXENT) and the rule set genetic algorithm (GARP) model are used to predict the potential distribution of illegal vaccines in China in geographical space. The MAXENT model is based on the species distribution point and species distribution area. Potential distribution of environmentally predicted species, The results are superior to other prediction models of the same kind. In this paper, niche model and GIS technique are used to estimate the potential spread of the vaccine in China, and to determine the spatial distribution and main influencing factors of the vaccine risk area, so as to provide the basis for the government to take further measures to dispose the vaccine. The simulation accuracy of different models was compared by using the operating characteristic curve of the subjects. The experimental results show that both the 1: 1 Maxent model and the GARP model are good predictors of the population density in the risk areas of illegal vaccines, Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui are the main high-risk areas affected by the vaccines involved. Industrial structure is the main environmental factor affecting the spatial distribution of illegal vaccine risk areas. The results obtained from the GARP model are as follows: a large range of potential distribution areas have been generated, and too many predicted fragmentation distributions have been produced in areas without illegal vaccines; The potential distribution area predicted by MAXENT has different environmental suitability index in different regions, and the unreasonable fragmentation distribution is successfully excluded, which is consistent with the real data collected. Thus a more accurate picture of the illegal vaccine inflow potential distribution pattern.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：R95;P208

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