本文選題：高血壓 + 患病率��； 參考：《中國(guó)衛(wèi)生統(tǒng)計(jì)》2014年03期

【摘要】：目的比較既往數(shù)據(jù)較少時(shí)不同方法在疾病預(yù)測(cè)中的應(yīng)用。方法利用我國(guó)建國(guó)以來(lái)四次大規(guī)模高血壓抽樣調(diào)查的數(shù)據(jù),分別采用幾何級(jí)數(shù)法、logistic函數(shù)模型和GM(1,1)灰色模型對(duì)患病率進(jìn)行估計(jì),并通過(guò)對(duì)比各方法的擬合效果、理論依據(jù)和臨床意義等,評(píng)價(jià)其可靠性和準(zhǔn)確性。結(jié)果所有方法用于高血壓患病率的短期預(yù)測(cè)(2~3年),結(jié)果都比較相似,2005年患病率的估計(jì)值均處在(19.3±1.0)%之間。但隨著預(yù)測(cè)時(shí)間的延長(zhǎng),不同方法給出的疾病趨勢(shì)則有了較大幅度的差異,截至2050年,GM(1,1)灰色模型(R2=0.9863)的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果已達(dá)到86.44%,幾何級(jí)數(shù)法給出的估計(jì)值也超過(guò)75%,而logistic函數(shù)模型(R2=0.6933)認(rèn)為患病率仍只有33.53%。其中l(wèi)ogistic模型估計(jì)較保守,并假設(shè)患病率始終不會(huì)超過(guò)上限40%;而幾何級(jí)數(shù)法和GM(1,1)模型給出的預(yù)測(cè)值將快速增長(zhǎng),于2060年之前突破100%。結(jié)論幾何級(jí)數(shù)法結(jié)合了數(shù)據(jù)的數(shù)學(xué)意義和臨床意義,適用于中短期的患病率估計(jì),而logistic回歸模型給出的患病率趨勢(shì)在理論上符合人們對(duì)未來(lái)疾病發(fā)展的預(yù)估,更適合遠(yuǎn)期推斷。GM(1,1)灰色模型與原始數(shù)據(jù)的擬合程度較高,且不要求提供大量相關(guān)信息,因此也較為適合數(shù)據(jù)點(diǎn)較少的短期預(yù)測(cè)。
[Abstract]:Objective to compare the application of different methods in disease prediction with less previous data. Methods based on the data of four large-scale sampling surveys of hypertension since the founding of the people's Republic of China, the geometric series logistic function model and the GM-1 1) grey model were used to estimate the prevalence rate, and the fitting results of the methods were compared. The theoretical basis and clinical significance were used to evaluate its reliability and accuracy. Results all the methods were used to predict the prevalence of hypertension for 2 ~ 3 years, and the results were similar. The estimated prevalence rate in 2005 was between 19.3 鹵1.0%. However, with the prolongation of the prediction time, the disease trends given by different methods vary considerably. By 2050, the predicted results of the grey model R2 + 0.9863) had reached 86.44 and the estimated value given by the geometric series method was more than 750.6933, while the logistic function model R20.6933) considered that the prevalence rate was still only 33.53. The logistic model is conservative and assumes that the prevalence rate will never exceed the upper limit of 40. Conclusion the geometric series method combines the mathematical and clinical significance of the data, and is suitable for estimating the prevalence rate in the short and medium term. However, the prevalence trend given by the logistic regression model is theoretically in line with the prediction of the future disease development. The grey model is more suitable for the short-term prediction with fewer data points because of its high fitting degree with the original data, and does not require a large amount of relevant information.
【作者單位】： 北京協(xié)和醫(yī)學(xué)院 中國(guó)醫(yī)學(xué)科學(xué)院 國(guó)家心血管病中心 阜外心血管病醫(yī)院 心血管疾病國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;
【分類號(hào)】：R311

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本文編號(hào)：1789822