蘇州市大氣顆粒物與居民呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病死亡的時間序列分析
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-16 08:53
【摘要】：目的探討蘇州市大氣顆粒物的急性暴露與居民每日呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病死亡的關(guān)系。方法采用時間序列的廣義相加模型,在控制時間趨勢和氣象因素等混雜因素的基礎(chǔ)上,建立單污染物和雙污染物模型,分析2010—2013年蘇州市大氣PM10、PM2.5濃度對居民每日呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病死亡人數(shù)的影響。結(jié)果單污染物模型中,蘇州市大氣PM10(lag0~1)、PM2.5(lag4)濃度每升高10μg/m3,居民呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病日死亡數(shù)分別增加0.408%(95%CI:0.083%~0.732%)和0.509%(95%CI:0.098%~0.921%)。雙污染物模型中,調(diào)整大氣PM2.5的影響后,PM10(lag0~1)對呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病死亡的超額危險度略有增加(ER=0.466%,95%CI:0.062%~0.871%);分別調(diào)整PM10和NO2的影響后,PM2.5(lag4)對呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病死亡的超額危險度分別為0.525%(95%CI:0.020%~1.029%)和0.782%(95%CI:0.320%~1.243%),差異均有統(tǒng)計學意義(P0.05)。結(jié)論蘇州市大氣PM10和PM2.5濃度升高可能導致居民每日呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病死亡人數(shù)增加。
[Abstract]:Objective to study the relationship between acute exposure of atmospheric particulate matter and daily respiratory disease death in Suzhou. Methods the generalized additive model of time series was used to analyze the atmospheric PM10, of Suzhou from 2010 to 2013. Based on controlling the mixed factors such as time trend and meteorological factors, the model of single pollutant and double pollutant was established. The effect of PM2.5 concentration on the daily death toll of respiratory diseases in residents. Results in the model of single pollutant, the concentration of PM10 (lag0~1) and PM2.5 (lag4) increased by 10 渭 g / m ~ (3). The daily death rate of respiratory diseases of residents increased by 0.408% (95 CI: 0.083%) and 0.509% (95 CI: 0.098%). In the dual-pollutant model, after adjusting the effect of atmospheric PM2.5, PM10 (lag0~1) slightly increased the excess risk of respiratory disease death (ER=0.466%,95%CI:0.062%~0.871%). After adjusting the effects of PM10 and NO2, the excess risk of PM2.5 (lag4) to death from respiratory diseases was 0.525% (95 CI: 0.020 1.029%) and 0.782% (95 CI: 0.3200.320 1.243%), respectively. The difference was statistically significant (P0.05). Conclusion the increase of PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations in Suzhou may lead to an increase in the daily death toll of respiratory diseases.
【作者單位】： 蘇州市高新區(qū)疾病預防控制中心衛(wèi)生監(jiān)測科;蘇州市疾病預防控制中心慢性病防制科;蘇州市環(huán)境監(jiān)測中心自動監(jiān)測與預警科;蘇州市疾病預防控制中心環(huán)境衛(wèi)生科;
【基金】：蘇州市醫(yī)學重點學科項目(2013012) 蘇州市科技局科技支撐計劃(SS201430)
【分類號】：R56
[Abstract]:Objective to study the relationship between acute exposure of atmospheric particulate matter and daily respiratory disease death in Suzhou. Methods the generalized additive model of time series was used to analyze the atmospheric PM10, of Suzhou from 2010 to 2013. Based on controlling the mixed factors such as time trend and meteorological factors, the model of single pollutant and double pollutant was established. The effect of PM2.5 concentration on the daily death toll of respiratory diseases in residents. Results in the model of single pollutant, the concentration of PM10 (lag0~1) and PM2.5 (lag4) increased by 10 渭 g / m ~ (3). The daily death rate of respiratory diseases of residents increased by 0.408% (95 CI: 0.083%) and 0.509% (95 CI: 0.098%). In the dual-pollutant model, after adjusting the effect of atmospheric PM2.5, PM10 (lag0~1) slightly increased the excess risk of respiratory disease death (ER=0.466%,95%CI:0.062%~0.871%). After adjusting the effects of PM10 and NO2, the excess risk of PM2.5 (lag4) to death from respiratory diseases was 0.525% (95 CI: 0.020 1.029%) and 0.782% (95 CI: 0.3200.320 1.243%), respectively. The difference was statistically significant (P0.05). Conclusion the increase of PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations in Suzhou may lead to an increase in the daily death toll of respiratory diseases.
【作者單位】： 蘇州市高新區(qū)疾病預防控制中心衛(wèi)生監(jiān)測科;蘇州市疾病預防控制中心慢性病防制科;蘇州市環(huán)境監(jiān)測中心自動監(jiān)測與預警科;蘇州市疾病預防控制中心環(huán)境衛(wèi)生科;
【基金】：蘇州市醫(yī)學重點學科項目(2013012) 蘇州市科技局科技支撐計劃(SS201430)
【分類號】：R56
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