氣候變化對(duì)新疆意大利蝗潛在分布的影響
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-08-14 09:37
【摘要】：意大利蝗Calliptamus italicus(L.)是新疆草原主要優(yōu)勢(shì)蝗蟲之一,每年給新疆畜牧業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)嚴(yán)重?fù)p失,氣候變化對(duì)其潛在分布影響的預(yù)測(cè)對(duì)其科學(xué)防治有重要意義。本研究采用意大利蝗的分布數(shù)據(jù)和生物氣候數(shù)據(jù),結(jié)合MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS軟件,預(yù)測(cè)了BCC_CSM1.1氣候模式下政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì)第五次工作報(bào)告(IPCC AR5)采用的RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5三種氣候情景在2021-2040年(2030s)、2041-2060年(2050s)和2061-2080年(2070s)的意大利蝗新疆潛在適生區(qū)分布范圍。結(jié)果表明:在BCC_CSM1.1的各情景下,意大利蝗適生區(qū)在北疆及天山一帶分布格局基本保持不變,但高度適生區(qū)面積都有所增加,其中在天山和阿爾泰山地區(qū),意大利蝗中、高度適生區(qū)范圍將向更高海拔區(qū)域蔓延,在北疆阿勒泰地區(qū)高度適生區(qū)明顯增加。極端水分條件和水熱條件對(duì)意大利蝗在新疆潛在分布發(fā)揮主要作用,其中4月、10月、3月和11月降水量對(duì)意大利蝗在新疆潛在分布影響最大,因其直接影響土壤相對(duì)含水量和土壤溫度,從而決定意大利蝗卵的存活量。
[Abstract]:Italian locust Calliptamus italicus (L.) It is one of the main dominant locusts in Xinjiang grassland, which brings serious losses to Xinjiang animal husbandry economy every year. The prediction of the influence of climate change on its potential distribution is of great significance to its scientific prevention and control. In this study, the distribution data and bioclimatic data of Italian locust, combined with MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, were used to predict the distribution range of RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios used in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC AR5) under BCC_CSM1.1 climate model in 2021-2040 (2030s), 2041-2060 (2050s) and 2061-2080 (2070 s). The results showed that the distribution pattern of Italian locust in northern Xinjiang and Tianshan remained basically unchanged, but the area of highly suitable area increased, among them, in Tianshan and Altai mountains, the range of highly suitable area would spread to higher altitude area, and the highly suitable area in Altay area of northern Xinjiang would increase obviously. Extreme water conditions and hydrothermal conditions play a major role in the potential distribution of Italian locust in Xinjiang, among which precipitation in April, October, March and November has the greatest effect on the potential distribution of Italian locust in Xinjiang, because it directly affects the relative soil water content and soil temperature, thus determining the survival of Italian locust eggs.
【作者單位】： 新疆大學(xué)資源與環(huán)境科學(xué)學(xué)院;新疆大學(xué)智慧城市與環(huán)境建模普通高校重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)治蝗滅鼠指揮部辦公室;
【基金】：新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)治蝗滅鼠指揮辦公室委托項(xiàng)目(2016) 新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)高層次人才培養(yǎng)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(104-40002) 教育部創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊(duì)項(xiàng)目(IRT1180)
【分類號(hào)】：S812.6
本文編號(hào)：2526486
[Abstract]:Italian locust Calliptamus italicus (L.) It is one of the main dominant locusts in Xinjiang grassland, which brings serious losses to Xinjiang animal husbandry economy every year. The prediction of the influence of climate change on its potential distribution is of great significance to its scientific prevention and control. In this study, the distribution data and bioclimatic data of Italian locust, combined with MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, were used to predict the distribution range of RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios used in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC AR5) under BCC_CSM1.1 climate model in 2021-2040 (2030s), 2041-2060 (2050s) and 2061-2080 (2070 s). The results showed that the distribution pattern of Italian locust in northern Xinjiang and Tianshan remained basically unchanged, but the area of highly suitable area increased, among them, in Tianshan and Altai mountains, the range of highly suitable area would spread to higher altitude area, and the highly suitable area in Altay area of northern Xinjiang would increase obviously. Extreme water conditions and hydrothermal conditions play a major role in the potential distribution of Italian locust in Xinjiang, among which precipitation in April, October, March and November has the greatest effect on the potential distribution of Italian locust in Xinjiang, because it directly affects the relative soil water content and soil temperature, thus determining the survival of Italian locust eggs.
【作者單位】： 新疆大學(xué)資源與環(huán)境科學(xué)學(xué)院;新疆大學(xué)智慧城市與環(huán)境建模普通高校重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)治蝗滅鼠指揮部辦公室;
【基金】：新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)治蝗滅鼠指揮辦公室委托項(xiàng)目(2016) 新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)高層次人才培養(yǎng)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(104-40002) 教育部創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊(duì)項(xiàng)目(IRT1180)
【分類號(hào)】：S812.6
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