發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-10 16:15

  本文選題：市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) + 均值方差��； 參考：《吉林農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：肉牛產(chǎn)業(yè)是我國(guó)畜牧產(chǎn)業(yè)的重要組成部分,中國(guó)在改革開(kāi)放到加入WTO后,隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展人們生活水平提高,人民對(duì)牛肉及牛肉制品從量到質(zhì)需求逐漸增多,肉牛養(yǎng)殖業(yè)的持續(xù)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展是滿(mǎn)足牛肉及其制品需求的重要基石,而減少肉牛養(yǎng)殖市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)則是確保肉牛養(yǎng)殖穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵。因此,肉牛養(yǎng)殖市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的預(yù)防及控制是擺在肉牛養(yǎng)殖者和政府管理部門(mén)面前的重要問(wèn)題。本文主要采用統(tǒng)計(jì)分析、文獻(xiàn)分析法和均值-方差分析法,分析我國(guó)1995年至2015年全國(guó)肉牛養(yǎng)殖的成本與利潤(rùn)狀況與變動(dòng)趨勢(shì),根據(jù)相關(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論和畜牧業(yè)理論,研究肉牛養(yǎng)殖的市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況、變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)及其影響因素,為肉牛產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈條上的相關(guān)主體和準(zhǔn)備對(duì)肉牛養(yǎng)殖產(chǎn)業(yè)投資的潛在投資者提供理論參考和決策依據(jù),幫助其提高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的防控與應(yīng)變能力,同時(shí)也為政府部門(mén)在制定有關(guān)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防控政策提供對(duì)策建議。本文一共分為五個(gè)部分:第一部分是緒論,主要闡述問(wèn)題研究背景和研究意義,第二部分是對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等概念的闡述及其應(yīng)用理論進(jìn)行說(shuō)明。第三部分是分析我國(guó)近二十年間,肉牛養(yǎng)殖市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的內(nèi)涵及其變動(dòng)情況。對(duì)肉牛養(yǎng)殖市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的歷史變動(dòng)進(jìn)行分析,一方面解析肉牛養(yǎng)殖市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的內(nèi)涵及特點(diǎn),通過(guò)其含義對(duì)肉牛市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的基本成因做分析;另一方面根據(jù)養(yǎng)殖市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的成因提出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)衡量指標(biāo)。第四部分是分析肉牛養(yǎng)殖市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響因素,從肉牛供給與需求、飼料供應(yīng)、仔畜供求、疫病防控、國(guó)際市場(chǎng)變動(dòng)等方面分析肉牛養(yǎng)殖市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的變化。第五部分是根據(jù)三、四部分的分析對(duì)提高肉牛養(yǎng)殖市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的防控能力提供有效的對(duì)策建議。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),目前我國(guó)肉牛養(yǎng)殖市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較低,國(guó)內(nèi)對(duì)肉牛需求正在逐步增加,適合養(yǎng)殖者繼續(xù)投資該行業(yè)。建議養(yǎng)殖者努力做到規(guī)模化、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化經(jīng)營(yíng),積極參加合作經(jīng)濟(jì)組織。政府方面加強(qiáng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè),增加風(fēng)險(xiǎn)補(bǔ)貼,設(shè)置肉牛養(yǎng)殖業(yè)政策性保險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品,規(guī)范肉牛養(yǎng)殖市場(chǎng)。
[Abstract]:Beef cattle industry is an important part of China's livestock industry. After China's reform and opening up to the WTO, with the development of the economy, people's living standards have improved, and the people's demand for beef and beef products from quantity to quality has gradually increased.The sustainable and stable development of beef breeding industry is an important cornerstone to meet the demand of beef and its products, and reducing the market risk of beef breeding is the key to ensure the stable development of beef breeding.Therefore, the prevention and control of market risk is an important problem for cattle breeders and government management departments.In this paper, statistical analysis, literature analysis and mean-variance analysis are used to analyze the cost and profit status and changing trend of beef cattle breeding in China from 1995 to 2015, according to the related risk and risk management theory and animal husbandry theory.This paper studies the market risk situation, changing trend and influencing factors of beef cattle breeding, and provides theoretical reference and decision basis for the related subjects in beef cattle industry chain and potential investors preparing to invest in beef cattle farming industry.It helps to improve the ability of prevention and control of risks and provides suggestions for government departments to formulate policies on risk prevention and control of agricultural products.This paper is divided into five parts: the first part is the introduction, mainly expounds the research background and research significance, the second part is to explain the concept of risk and market risk and its application theory.The third part is to analyze the connotation and change of beef cattle market risk in recent twenty years.This paper analyzes the historical changes of the market risk of beef cattle breeding. On the one hand, it analyzes the connotation and characteristics of the market risk of beef cattle culture, and analyzes the basic causes of the market risk of beef cattle through its meaning.On the other hand, according to the causes of risk in aquaculture market, the risk measurement index is put forward.The fourth part is to analyze the influencing factors of market risk of beef cattle breeding, and analyze the changes of market risk of beef cattle breeding from the aspects of beef supply and demand, feed supply, supply and demand of young animals, epidemic disease prevention and control, changes of international market, etc.The fifth part is based on the analysis of three and four parts to improve the market risk prevention and control of beef cattle to provide effective countermeasures.It is found that the market risk of beef breeding in China is low and the domestic demand for beef cattle is increasing step by step, which is suitable for farmers to continue to invest in this industry.Farmers are advised to work hard to achieve scale, standardized management, and actively participate in cooperative economic organizations.The government has strengthened infrastructure construction, increased risk subsidies, set up policy insurance products for beef farming, and standardized beef breeding markets.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F326.3

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