本文關(guān)鍵詞：數(shù)學(xué)模型在血吸蟲病監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)中的應(yīng)用　出處：《四川大學(xué)》2006年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 日本血吸蟲病 負(fù)二項(xiàng)分布 傳播動(dòng)力學(xué)模型 隨機(jī)模型 調(diào)零分解

【摘要】：數(shù)學(xué)模型在血吸蟲病監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)中的應(yīng)用 目的 了解四川省血吸蟲病監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)血吸蟲病的流行趨勢(shì)、流行現(xiàn)狀及防治措施的效果，發(fā)現(xiàn)血吸蟲病防治過程中的不足及將來防治工作的重點(diǎn)，形成良好的信息反饋，為現(xiàn)場(chǎng)血吸蟲病防治工作服務(wù)，為制定相關(guān)的政策及宏觀規(guī)劃提供參考，也為相關(guān)研究提供方法學(xué)的借鑒。 方法 利用2000～2004年四川省血吸蟲病監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)數(shù)據(jù)，對(duì)血吸蟲病的流行趨勢(shì)和流行現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行描述，并反映出防治措施的效果；計(jì)算血吸蟲病傳播動(dòng)力學(xué)指標(biāo)，進(jìn)一步揭示血吸蟲病的流行特征和不同監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)的流行特點(diǎn)；擬合血吸蟲卵計(jì)量變異的隨機(jī)模型，估計(jì)“實(shí)際”的感染率；探討感染度的計(jì)算方法，并對(duì)各年各監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)的感染度進(jìn)行比較。 結(jié)果 各監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)血吸蟲病感染率有所波動(dòng)，但整體呈下降趨勢(shì)，現(xiàn)各監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)感染率較穩(wěn)定，處在較難進(jìn)一步下降的狀態(tài)(2004年西昌為9.04％，蒲江為0.95％，丹棱為3.19％，廣漢為1.09％)，近幾年防治效果較明顯；傳播動(dòng)力學(xué)指標(biāo)顯示各監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)傳播雖在進(jìn)行，，但已處于較低的水平，另各監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)的指標(biāo)值略有差別，提示各監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)有不同的防治重點(diǎn)；模型估計(jì)的“實(shí)際”感染率遠(yuǎn)高于由監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算的感染率，將來的血防工作仍任重而道遠(yuǎn)；加權(quán)感染度界于非零感染度(或純感染度)與“±1”感染度之間，各年各監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)的人群感染度(純感染度和全感染度)差異均具有統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義，且2000與2001年人群感染度以西昌監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)為最高，2002年丹棱監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)最高，2003年蒲江監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)最高，2004年仍以西昌監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)為最高。 結(jié)論 從五年的監(jiān)測(cè)情況看，各監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)疫情得到進(jìn)一步的控制，血防效果較明顯，通過統(tǒng)計(jì)描述及對(duì)反映血吸蟲病流行程度的主要指標(biāo)感染率和感染度的
[Abstract]:Application of mathematical model in schistosomiasis surveillance data Objective to understand the epidemic trend of schistosomiasis in Sichuan schistosomiasis surveillance points, the current situation of schistosomiasis epidemic and the effect of prevention and control measures, and to find out the deficiency in the process of schistosomiasis control and the key points of future prevention and control. To form good information feedback, to serve for the prevention and control of schistosomiasis in the field, to provide reference for the formulation of relevant policies and macro planning, and to provide methodological reference for related research. Methods based on the data of schistosomiasis surveillance in Sichuan Province from 2000 to 2004, the epidemic trend and current situation of schistosomiasis were described, and the effect of control measures was reflected. The transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis was calculated to reveal the epidemic characteristics of schistosomiasis and the epidemic characteristics of different surveillance sites. Fitting the random model of the egg metrological variation of Schistosoma japonicum to estimate the "actual" infection rate; The calculation method of infection degree was discussed, and the infection degree of each year was compared. Results the infection rate of schistosomiasis fluctuated in all monitoring points, but the overall trend was decreasing, and the infection rate of schistosomiasis was stable. In 2004, Xichang was 9.04, Pujiang was 0.955, Danling was 3.19m, Guanghan was 1.09m, the control effect was obvious in recent years. The transmission dynamics index shows that the propagation of each monitoring point is in a low level, and the index values of the other monitoring points are slightly different, indicating that each monitoring point has different prevention and control emphases. The "actual" infection rate estimated by the model is much higher than the infection rate calculated by the monitoring data. The weighted degree of infection was between non-zero infection (or pure infection) and "鹵1" infection. The population infection degree (pure infection degree and total infection degree) had statistical significance in each year. In 2000 and 2001, the infection rate was highest in Xichang, Danling on 2002, Pujiang on 2003 and Xichang on 2003. Conclusion from the monitoring situation of five years, the epidemic situation of each surveillance point has been further controlled, and the effect of blood control is obvious. The infection rate and infection degree of schistosomiasis were analyzed by statistical description and the main index reflecting the prevalence of schistosomiasis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：四川大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2006
【分類號(hào)】：R181.8;R311

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 李文潮,徐勇勇,夏結(jié)來;改進(jìn)簡單催化模型中感染力函數(shù)的判別準(zhǔn)則[J];第四軍醫(yī)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);1992年04期

2 何毅勛;;關(guān)于血吸蟲病病原的史料[J];國外醫(yī)學(xué)(寄生蟲病分冊(cè));1979年01期

3 鄭江;我國血吸蟲病防治應(yīng)堅(jiān)持以社會(huì)措施為主導(dǎo)的策略[J];國外醫(yī)學(xué).流行病學(xué)傳染病學(xué)分冊(cè);2005年01期

4 吳建宏 ,劉南根 ,卓尚炯;日本血吸蟲病的傳播動(dòng)力學(xué)模型——(Ⅰ)定性分析[J];高校應(yīng)用數(shù)學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)A輯(中文版);1987年03期

5 伍衛(wèi)平,官亞宜,朱石南,朱雪花,李小鋼;選擇血吸蟲病化療方案的成本—效果分析模型[J];海峽預(yù)防醫(yī)學(xué)雜志;2003年03期

6 余金明,袁鴻昌,楊求吉,SakeDeVlas,BrunoGryseels;日本血吸蟲在人體內(nèi)成蟲數(shù)與糞中蟲卵計(jì)數(shù)的關(guān)系[J];疾病控制雜志;1997年01期

7 余金明,袁鴻昌,陳啟明,楊求吉,姜慶五,SakedeVlas,BrunoGryseels;日本血吸蟲卵計(jì)量變異的模型及應(yīng)用[J];疾病控制雜志;2000年04期

8 雷秉鈞;我國血吸蟲病防治研究現(xiàn)況[J];臨床內(nèi)科雜志;2004年01期

9 羅建平,袁建華,姜唯生,嚴(yán)蕭,曾曉軍,高曉輝,管曉虹,吳觀陵,趙慰先;評(píng)估糞檢Kato法血吸蟲卵陽性漏檢人數(shù)的數(shù)學(xué)模型[J];南京醫(yī)科大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);1998年06期

10 陳文江,吳開琛,李才旭,林明和,吳開錄;登革熱、瘧疾和絲蟲病蚊媒的傳播動(dòng)力學(xué)比較及其與防治效應(yīng)的研究[J];中國熱帶醫(yī)學(xué);2003年02期

本文編號(hào)：1407683