發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-18 17:39

  本文選題：熱浪 + 心理疾病�。� 參考：《山東大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：[研究背景] 近百年來(lái),地球氣候主要經(jīng)歷以全球變暖為主要特征的顯著變化,全球氣候變暖是21世紀(jì)人類面臨的最大的健康威脅。在過(guò)去的幾十年,地球表面溫度以超乎我們想象的速度大幅度上升,預(yù)計(jì)到2100年,地球表面溫度將上升1.4-5.8℃(政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì),Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC)。隨著全球變暖的加劇,全球范圍內(nèi)的酷熱日益頻繁,高溫?zé)崂艘殉蔀槟壳笆澜绶秶鷥?nèi)頻繁發(fā)生的極端災(zāi)害天氣事件,且它的發(fā)生頻率、強(qiáng)度及持續(xù)時(shí)間都在不斷增加。熱浪主要是因?yàn)榭諝鉁囟雀?且這樣的高溫持續(xù)時(shí)間較長(zhǎng),引起人、動(dòng)物、植物不能適應(yīng)的一種天氣過(guò)程。極端高溫會(huì)通過(guò)一系列直接或間接途徑給人類健康造成各種不利影響,所以目前高溫?zé)崂耸录捌浣】祮?wèn)題已成為國(guó)際上氣候與健康領(lǐng)域的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題。國(guó)外已有研究表明,熱浪期間心理疾病的發(fā)病率和患病率是顯著上升的。2007年,IPCC第四次評(píng)估報(bào)告也指出,氣候變化可能會(huì)對(duì)人類身體健康帶來(lái)不利影響,并明確表示對(duì)心理健康的影響將會(huì)是其中很重要的一個(gè)方面,不容忽視。目前,國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)熱浪已經(jīng)開(kāi)展了諸多研究,但專門針對(duì)熱浪對(duì)心理健康影響的研究還相對(duì)較少。本文在全球氣候變化的大背景和總結(jié)國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究的基礎(chǔ)上,主要采用病例交叉研究和病例對(duì)照研究的方法,對(duì)熱浪對(duì)心理健康的影響、影響其效應(yīng)的相關(guān)因素及預(yù)防和保護(hù)措施進(jìn)行了初步探討與分析,旨在為識(shí)別高危人群,開(kāi)展相關(guān)的高溫?zé)崂说念A(yù)報(bào)預(yù)測(cè)工作,預(yù)防或減少熱浪對(duì)心理健康的危害提供科學(xué)參考。 [研究目的] 探討2010年濟(jì)南市夏天各次熱浪事件對(duì)心理疾病日就診人次的影響、特征及其與心理疾病患病率發(fā)生改變有關(guān)的影響因素,并初步探討預(yù)防與保護(hù)措施,為政府和民眾采取有效措施避免或減輕熱浪對(duì)心理健康的影響提供科學(xué)的決策依據(jù)。 [研究方法] 本研究以濟(jì)南市居民為研究對(duì)象,2010年6月1日-8月31日的逐日氣象資料由中國(guó)氣象數(shù)據(jù)共享服務(wù)網(wǎng)提供,心理疾病門診和住院病例的相關(guān)資料取自山東省精神衛(wèi)生中心。 本研究主要采用兩種研究方法：即病例交叉研究和病例對(duì)照研究。前者主要采用1：1單向回顧性對(duì)照設(shè)計(jì)和時(shí)間分層對(duì)照設(shè)計(jì)來(lái)分析研究期間濟(jì)南市發(fā)生的各次熱浪事件對(duì)濟(jì)南市居民心理疾病日就診人次的影響及其特征；后者主要用來(lái)分析熱浪時(shí)期與心理疾病患病率發(fā)生改變有關(guān)的影響因素。 [結(jié)果] 研究期間共發(fā)生4次熱浪,其中熱浪期心理疾病就診人為3573人次,非熱浪期心理疾病就診人次為15996人次。4次熱浪對(duì)每日心理疾病就診人次影響的1：1單向?qū)φ赵O(shè)計(jì)和時(shí)間分層對(duì)照設(shè)計(jì)的OR值及其95%C1分別為2.224(1.980～2.498)和2.439(2.192～2.713),2.940(2.444～3.536)和2.940(2.575～3.358),3.165(2.657～3.771)和3.436(3.013～3.918),3.019(2.476～3.681)和3.039(2.536～3.642)；且本研究顯示,熱浪對(duì)心理疾病日就診人次的影響是存在滯后效應(yīng)的,4次熱浪的最佳滯后期分別為3天,2天,3天,2天； 熱浪時(shí)期與心理疾病患病率發(fā)生改變有關(guān)的影響因素主要包括：年齡(≤65歲組/65歲組)、家庭住址(城市/郊區(qū)或農(nóng)村)、職業(yè)(農(nóng)民/非農(nóng)民)及婚姻狀況(離異/非離異)。即年齡在65歲以上的老年人、居住在城市地區(qū)的居民和離異人群在熱浪期間發(fā)生心理疾病的危險(xiǎn)性大大增加；農(nóng)民相對(duì)于其它職業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō),在熱浪期間更容易受到高溫?zé)崂说挠绊憽?[結(jié)論與建議] 2010年濟(jì)南市的4次熱浪事件均使當(dāng)?shù)鼐用裥睦砑膊〉娜站驮\人次明顯增加,且存在滯后效應(yīng)。年齡、職業(yè)、家庭住址及婚姻狀況可能是熱浪時(shí)期與心理疾病患病率發(fā)生改變有關(guān)的影響因素。
[Abstract]:[research background]
In the last hundred years, the earth's climate has undergone major changes with the main features of global warming. Global warming is the biggest health threat to humans in the twenty-first Century. In the past few decades, the earth's surface temperature has risen dramatically over the speed of our imagination. The earth surface temperature is expected to rise by 1.4-5.8 C by 2100 (Intergovernmental). The Special Committee on climate change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC). As the global warming increases, the global heat is becoming more and more frequent. High temperature heat waves have become the most frequent extreme disaster weather events around the world, and the frequency, intensity and duration of its occurrence are increasing. Because of the high temperature of the air and the long duration of this high temperature, it causes a weather process that is unsuitable for people, animals and plants. Extreme heat will cause various adverse effects on human health through a series of direct or indirect ways, so the current heat wave events and their health problems have become the international climate and health field. Foreign studies have shown that the incidence and prevalence of psychological diseases during the heat wave are significantly increased in.2007 years, and the IPCC fourth assessment report also points out that climate change may have adverse effects on human health, and that the impact on mental health will be an important aspect of it. At present, many studies have been carried out on heat waves at home and abroad, but the research on the effects of heat waves on mental health is relatively small. Based on the background of global climate change and the related research at home and abroad, this paper mainly adopts the method of case cross study and case control study, and the psychological health of the heat waves. The related factors affecting the effect and the prevention and protection measures were preliminarily discussed and analyzed in order to provide a scientific reference for the identification of high risk population, the prediction and prediction of high temperature heat waves, and the prevention or reduction of the harm of heat waves to mental health.
[research purposes]
The effects of the summer heat waves in Ji'nan in the summer of 2010 on the visits of psychological disease day visits, characteristics and factors related to the changes in the prevalence of psychological diseases were discussed, and the preventive and protective measures were preliminarily discussed to provide a scientific decision for the government and the public to take effective measures to avoid or reduce the impact of heat waves on mental health. According to it.
[research methods]
In this study, Ji'nan residents were taken as the research object. The daily meteorological data of 31 -8 month in June 1, 2010 were provided by the China Meteorological data sharing service network. The related data of psychological disease outpatient and hospitalized cases were taken from the mental health center of Shandong province.
Two methods are used in this study, namely, case cross study and case control study. The former mainly uses 1:1 one-way retrospective control design and time stratified control design to analyze the influence and characteristics of each heat wave event in Ji'nan on the daily visits of Ji'nan residents' psychological diseases during the study. It should be used to analyze the factors related to the change of the prevalence of mental illness during the heat wave period.
[results]
During the period of the study, there were 4 times of heat wave, of which 3573 people were diagnosed with mental illness during the heat wave period, and 15996 times in non hot wave period, 15996 times of.4 heat wave, the OR value of 1:1 one-way control design and time stratified control design and 95% C1 were 2.224 (1.980 to 2.498) and 2.439 (2.192), respectively. 2.713), 2.940 (2.444 to 3.536) and 2.940 (2.575 to 3.358), 3.165 (2.657 to 3.771) and 3.436 (3.013 ~ 3.918).
The factors associated with the changes in the prevalence of mental illness include age (group /65 years younger than 65 years old), home address (city / suburb or rural), occupation (farmer / non farmer) and marital status (divorced / non divorced). That is, aged people over 65 years old, residents living in urban areas and divorced people in heat waves During the period, the risk of mental illness increased significantly. Compared with other occupations, farmers were more likely to be affected by high temperature heat waves during the heat wave.
[conclusions and recommendations]
In 2010, the 4 heat wave events in Ji'nan all increased the daily visits of local residents with mental illness, and there was a lag effect. Age, occupation, home address and marital status may be the factors associated with the change in the prevalence of mental illness during the heat wave period.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：R395

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