本文選題：輿情演化 + 元胞自動機　； 參考：《西華師范大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著互聯(lián)網對社會政治、經濟、文化生活的影響與日俱增,以及新媒體建設的空前發(fā)展,網絡輿情成為反映公眾輿論的新形式,并受到全社會廣泛的關注和重視。在此背景下,分析網絡輿情產生原因,傳播規(guī)律,影響因素,從理論上和技術上解釋輿情動態(tài)演進機制,具有十分重要的現(xiàn)實意義。網絡輿情傳播及演化是一種復雜系統(tǒng)的演化過程,從人文社科鄰域角度的研究方法只能對輿情發(fā)展的特征、內涵以及表現(xiàn)途徑和形成結果等方面給出定性的描述,而無法從定量角度分析其內在演進變化機制。而元胞自動機模型具有并行性、離散性和行為系統(tǒng)級涌現(xiàn)性等特征,能夠有效模擬和仿真現(xiàn)實網絡輿情傳播規(guī)律。因此,本文在整理現(xiàn)實網絡輿情傳播規(guī)律基礎上,綜合運用元胞自動機模型,理論分析與計算機仿真等方法,模擬輿情觀點演化,構建了的輿情觀點聚合和輿情引導模型。并對輿情傳播與輿情引導進行了深入的仿真分析。具體的研究工作和創(chuàng)新點如下。(1)在輿情理論分析方面,分析了從定性和定量角度進行輿情傳播的研究現(xiàn)狀和優(yōu)缺點。針對元胞自動機的特征和網絡輿情傳播特點。對網絡輿情要素定界、輿情生命周期進行了分析。(2)在輿情傳播機制研究方面,針對現(xiàn)有元胞自動機模型進行網絡輿情研究存在的問題,通過定義多種元胞屬性,離散意見值,提出了基于元胞自動機的網絡輿情觀點聚合演進模型。仿真實驗探究了輿情主體屬性和輿情主體環(huán)境因素與輿情傳播及演化的關系。進行多組實驗得到了J型分布和雙眾數(shù)分布的群體觀點聚合模型。(3)在輿情導控機制研究方面,針對輿情發(fā)展生命期特點,通過定義具體導控機制下的輿情主體屬性和狀態(tài)轉移函數(shù),對輿情形成時期和發(fā)展時期進行了導控實驗。提出兩種輿情導控系數(shù):強制導控系數(shù)和內在動力轉化導控系數(shù)。并探討了這兩種導控作用不同的輿情引導效果。輿情引導終態(tài)呈現(xiàn)傾向中立趨勢,從理論上驗證了這種機制有效性。
[Abstract]:With the increasing influence of Internet on social politics, economy and cultural life, as well as the unprecedented development of new media construction, network public opinion has become a new form of reflecting public opinion, and has been widely concerned and valued by the whole society. Under this background, it is of great practical significance to analyze the causes, propagation rules, influencing factors of network public opinion and explain the dynamic evolution mechanism of public opinion theoretically and technically. The dissemination and evolution of network public opinion is a complex system evolution process. The research method from the angle of neighborhood of humanities and social sciences can only give a qualitative description of the characteristics, connotation, performance ways and formation results of public opinion development. However, it is impossible to analyze its internal evolution mechanism from a quantitative point of view. The cellular automata model has the characteristics of parallelism, discreteness and behavior system-level emergence, which can effectively simulate and simulate the law of public opinion spread in real network. Therefore, on the basis of sorting out the law of the spread of the public opinion on the real network, this paper synthetically uses the cellular automata model, theoretical analysis and computer simulation to simulate the evolution of the opinion of the public opinion, and constructs the aggregation and guidance model of the opinion of the public opinion. And carried on the thorough simulation analysis to the public opinion dissemination and the public opinion guidance. The specific research work and innovation are as follows: 1) in the theoretical analysis of public opinion, this paper analyzes the current research situation, advantages and disadvantages of public opinion transmission from the qualitative and quantitative perspectives. According to the characteristics of cellular automata and network public opinion dissemination characteristics. In the aspect of the research on the communication mechanism of public opinion, aiming at the problems existing in the research of network public opinion based on the existing cellular automata model, this paper defines a variety of cellular attributes and discretizes the opinion values, and analyzes the boundary of the elements of network public opinion and the life cycle of public opinion. Based on cellular automata, a model of network public opinion aggregation and evolution is proposed. The simulation experiment explores the relationship between the attribute of public opinion subject and the environmental factors of public opinion subject and the dissemination and evolution of public opinion. A group view aggregation model of J-type distribution and double-mode distribution was obtained by multi-group experiments. In the aspect of guiding and controlling mechanism of public opinion, according to the characteristics of the life period of public opinion development, By defining the attribute and state transfer function of the public opinion subject under the specific guidance and control mechanism, the guidance and control experiments were carried out in the period of formation and development of public opinion. Two kinds of guiding and controlling coefficients of public opinion are proposed: forced guide control coefficient and intrinsic dynamic transformation guide control coefficient. And discussed the two different guidance and control of public opinion guidance effect. Public opinion leads the final state to a neutral trend, which theoretically verifies the effectiveness of this mechanism.
【學位授予單位】：西華師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：G206;TP301.1

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