發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-09 11:30

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于RS和GIS的莆田市土地利用景觀格局監(jiān)測與模擬研究　出處：《福建農(nóng)林大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 莆田市 土地利用 景觀格局 驅(qū)動(dòng)力 模擬

【摘要】：土地利用景觀格局是指不同大小和形狀的土地利用型斑塊在空間上的排列狀況,是景觀異質(zhì)性的具體表現(xiàn),具有顯著的時(shí)空特征。因自然環(huán)境的限制及人類活動(dòng)的干擾會(huì)對(duì)土地利用景觀格局造成影響,故開展對(duì)土地利用景觀格局監(jiān)測與模擬的深入研究,有利于為科學(xué)、合理的土地利用規(guī)劃和管理政策的制定提供更多的空間資料與實(shí)際狀況,為區(qū)域生態(tài)環(huán)境保護(hù)提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。莆田市地處閩中沿海山地、丘陵帶,是福建省重要的綠色寶庫,近年來,城市化和工業(yè)化進(jìn)程的加快,致使該區(qū)域衍生出許多土地供需矛盾,生態(tài)環(huán)境遭到破壞。本研究在RS和GIS技術(shù)的支持下,以莆田市1995,2005,2015年遙感影像解譯結(jié)果為基礎(chǔ),運(yùn)用景觀指數(shù)法、Shannon多樣性t檢驗(yàn)法、Logistic回歸模型、Markov模型對(duì)莆田市20年間的土地利用景觀格局特征變化進(jìn)行分析,對(duì)不同時(shí)段不同行政區(qū)景觀格局變化差異程度進(jìn)行檢定,對(duì)土地利用景觀格局變化驅(qū)動(dòng)機(jī)制進(jìn)行研究,對(duì)未來莆田市林地景觀格局變化進(jìn)行模擬研究,并預(yù)測2015-2035年間林地轉(zhuǎn)出的空間分布位置,以期為莆田市土地利用規(guī)劃與管理、生態(tài)恢復(fù)和城市發(fā)展政策的制定提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。主要結(jié)論如下:(1)從土地利用面積變化上看,1995-2015年,莆田市區(qū)域林地、農(nóng)用地、水體面積不斷減少,建設(shè)用地面積大幅度增加,裸露地則表現(xiàn)為先減少后增加。從土地利用轉(zhuǎn)移變化上看,1995-2005年,林地、水體轉(zhuǎn)出轉(zhuǎn)入雙向變化特點(diǎn)突出;農(nóng)用地、裸露地以轉(zhuǎn)出為主;建設(shè)用地以轉(zhuǎn)入為主,主要來源于農(nóng)用地和裸露地。2005-2015年,土地利用變化程度加劇,表現(xiàn)為農(nóng)用地與裸露地轉(zhuǎn)入轉(zhuǎn)出雙向變化特點(diǎn)突出;建設(shè)用地以轉(zhuǎn)入為主;林地、水體以轉(zhuǎn)出為主。(2)由類別層級(jí)景觀指數(shù)得知,20年間,林地的斑塊密度、最大斑塊指數(shù)、平均斑塊大小等指標(biāo)的逐年下降表明林地正處于被蠶食分割的狀態(tài)之下;農(nóng)用地的形狀逐年趨于規(guī)則化簡單化,且正處于破碎化狀態(tài);道路交通設(shè)施的逐步完善使得建設(shè)用地的連接程度逐年上升。由景觀層級(jí)景觀指數(shù)得知,莆田市區(qū)域景觀的破碎化程度日益加深,空間聚集度逐年下降,多樣性和均勻度增加。(3)根據(jù)Shannon多樣性指數(shù)t檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果,1995-2005年間、2005-2015年間和1995-2015年間這三個(gè)時(shí)段的莆田市土地利用景觀格局變化均具有極顯著性。除1995-2005年間城廂區(qū)和荔城區(qū)的土地利用景觀格局變化不具有顯著性以外,該時(shí)段內(nèi)的其他行政區(qū)和其他時(shí)段的全部行政區(qū)土地利用景觀格局變化均具有極顯著性。(4)根據(jù)Logistic回歸模型結(jié)果顯示,各模型對(duì)因變數(shù)的聯(lián)合解釋能力均達(dá)到極顯著的效果,即模型的整體性擬合效果較好。在12個(gè)驅(qū)動(dòng)土地利用型發(fā)生改變的因子中,地理因子相對(duì)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因子具有更大的驅(qū)動(dòng)作用,同時(shí)驅(qū)動(dòng)不同土地利用型發(fā)生變化的因子也不盡相同。其中坡向、高程、距裸露地距離、距農(nóng)用地距離、距林地距離、人口密度與地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值對(duì)林地轉(zhuǎn)出具有顯著的影響。(5)利用Markov模型對(duì)未來莆田市各土地利用景觀面積變化進(jìn)行預(yù)測。根據(jù)預(yù)測結(jié)果,2015-2075年間,林地、農(nóng)用地、水體將持續(xù)減少,建設(shè)用地與裸露地持續(xù)增加,至2075年,林地的比例將減少至32.52%,建設(shè)用地占土地總面積的比例將超過林地,取代林地成為莆田市區(qū)域的主導(dǎo)景觀,這說明城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程將越來越顯著。(6)利用1995-2015年的林地轉(zhuǎn)出模型對(duì)2015-2035年莆田市林地轉(zhuǎn)出進(jìn)行空間模擬,根據(jù)模擬結(jié)果,2015-2035年,林地轉(zhuǎn)出的位置主要分布在仙游縣和涵江區(qū),城廂區(qū)的林地保留相對(duì)較完善,可見2015年后,仙游縣和涵江區(qū)的土地利用矛盾越來越突出,是今后土地利用規(guī)劃和林地保護(hù)的重點(diǎn)區(qū)域。
[Abstract]:The landscape pattern of land use refers to land use type patches of different sizes and shapes are arranged in space, is a concrete manifestation of landscape heterogeneity, with spatial and temporal characteristics significantly. Due to the interference of human activities and the limitation of the natural environment impact on landscape pattern of land use, so to carry out in-depth Study on landscape pattern and monitoring simulation of land use, to provide space for science, more information and actual situation of the development of rational land use planning and management policies, and provide scientific basis for the regional ecological environment. Putian city is located in the coastal mountain area, hilly zone, is an important green treasure, in recent years in Fujian Province, city and industrialization to speed up the process, resulting in the area derived from the contradiction between supply and demand a lot of land, the destruction of the ecological environment. In this study, RS and GIS, to 199520052015 years in Putian City Remote sensing image interpretation based on the results of using the landscape index method, Shannon test method t diversity, Logistic regression model, Markov model of landscape pattern change of land use in Putian city during 20 years were analyzed for the calibration of different periods of landscape patterns in different administrative region difference degree, the landscape pattern of land use change driving mechanism research and Simulation Research for the future of Putian city forest landscape pattern change, and predict the location of 2015-2035 between woodland from space, in order for the planning and management of land use in Putian City, ecological restoration and city development policy to provide the scientific basis. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) from the area of land use change on the look. 1995-2015, Putian city agricultural land area, forest land, water area decreased continuously, the construction land area increased greatly, bare land showed increased after the first reduction from. The transfer of land use change, 1995-2005, woodland, water transferred into two-way change characteristics; agricultural land, bare land in turn; land into main construction, mainly from agricultural land and bare land.2005-2015, degree of land use change intensifies, for agricultural land and turn into a two-way change characteristics of bare outstanding; land to woodland, water into the main building; to turn out. (2) the class level landscape index that 20 years, forest patch density, largest patch index decreased year by year, the average patch size and other indicators showed that the forest is under the condition of segmentation has been eroded; agricultural land tends to shape the rule is simple, and is in a fragmented state; road traffic facilities and gradually improve the connection degree of the construction has increased year by year. By the landscape landscape level index showed that the area of Putian City The landscape fragmentation is growing, spatial aggregation decreased year by year, diversity and evenness increased. (3) according to the Shannon diversity index t test results, 1995-2005 years, Putian City, the landscape pattern of land use change between 2005-2015 and 1995-2015 during the three time were extremely significant. In addition to the landscape pattern change of land the use of 1995-2005 between Chengxiang district and Licheng District are not significant, the period of the other administrative region and all other periods of land use and landscape pattern change administrative region were significant. (4) according to the Logistic regression model showed that the model of the dependent variable explanatory power reached extremely significant the effect is better that the integrity of the model fitting effect. In the 12 driving factors changing land use type, geographical factors relative social and economic factors have a greater role in driving, At the same time, different driving factors of land use type changes are not the same. The slope, elevation, distance from bare land, agricultural land from the distance from the forest, distance, density of population and GDP have a significant impact on the forest land transferred. (5) using Markov model to predict the future changes of the landscape area land use in Putian city. According to the prediction results, 2015-2075 years, forest land, farmland, water will continue to decrease, the construction land and bare land continued to increase, to 2075, the proportion of forest land will be reduced to 32.52%, construction land accounted for the proportion of the total land area of more than woodland, woodland replaced become the dominant landscape in Putian region this shows that the process of urbanization will become more and more prominent. (6) the space simulation of forest out of 2015-2035 years in Putian City, the use of forest land transferred model for 1995-2015 years, according to the simulation results, 2015-2035 years out of the forest The main distribution in Xianyou county and Hanjiang District, Chengxiang district land reserve is relatively perfect, visible after 2015, Xianyou county and district land use contradiction is increasingly prominent, the future land use planning and key areas of forest protection.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：福建農(nóng)林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：P901;F301.2

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