2000 - 2010年期間,利率和股票價格在中國的關(guān)系分析
1999年在懷俄明州舉行的貨幣政策會議上,格林斯潘美聯(lián)儲主席強調(diào),美聯(lián)儲的貨幣政策將采取積極的股市因素考慮在內(nèi)(華盛頓郵報,2005年)。貨幣政策與資產(chǎn)價格之間的關(guān)系,仍是當前的貨幣結(jié)構(gòu)理論,脫穎而出前沿問題,尤其是在大力發(fā)展的中國(彭,2011年)。本文將詳細談到中國的貨幣政策和股票價格的問題,特別是從2000年到2010年這將首先集中于周期性變化,中國的貨幣政策(尤其是在基準利率)和股票價格(基于上證綜合指數(shù)),然后流下光經(jīng)測試為他們的關(guān)系。第三部分將集中在利率對股票價格參照相關(guān)股票定價模型的影響。此外,利率和股票價格之間的互動影響進行了分析,旨在對應(yīng)的周期。最后,,一些一般的意義和局限性就會顯露出來。
In the Monetary Policy meeting held in Wyoming in 1999, Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, emphasized that the FED’s monetary policy would positively take stock market factors into account (The Washington Post, 2005). The relationship between monetary policy and asset price, is still one forefront question in current monetary theory, especially in vigorously developed China (Peng, 2011). This essay will elaborate the issue referring to China’s monetary policy and its stock price, especially from 2000 to 2010. It will firstly focus on the periodic changes in China’s monetary policy (especially in Benchmark Interest Rates) and stock price (based on SSE Composite Index), and then shed light upon the test for their relationship. The third part will concentrate onthe influence of interest rate on stock price with reference to relevant stock pricing models. Furthermore, interactive impactsbetween interest rate and stock price are analyzed aiming atcorresponding periods. Finally, some general implications and limitations will be revealed.
Part I: Overview of Periodic Changes in Interest Rate and Stock Price
Monetary Policy and Interest Rates in China during 2000 – 2010
National GDP Annual Growth Rate in China during 2000-2010
Monetary policy is the process by which the monetary authority of a country controls the supply of money. It often targets interest rate for the purpose of promoting economic development and stability (Filecluster, 2010), and is reflected by National GDP figures tosome extent (Judd, 1993). In order to efficiently understand China’s monetary policy during 2000 – 2010, the National GDP Annual Growth Rate in China during 2000-2010 will be analyzed in Chart One. In general, China’s GDP experienced the boom-decline-rehabilitation process of during these ten days.
Part II: Test for Relationship between Benchmark Interest Rate and Stock Price
Part III: Influence of Interest Rate on Stock Price with reference to MODELs
Part IV: Interactive Impacts between Interest Rate and Stock Price in PRACTICEs
Part V: Conclusion and limitations總結(jié)
In conclusion, the periodic changes in China’s monetary policy (especially interest rates) and stock price during 2000 – 2010 is revealed at the start of this essay. Test for their relationship is then conducted. In order to grasp the relationship between interest rate and stock price, an analysis of their interactive impacts is launched from theoretical and practical perspectives. However, this analysis ignores the difference between the nominal interest rate and the real interest rate, neglects other factors in monetary policy (such as exchange rate), and overlooks the insignificant change in either interest rate or stock price during 2000 – 2010. These problems are worth to be considered in further research and investigation.
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Appendix One: National GDP in China during 2000-2010
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