【摘要】：河北省是我國重要的農(nóng)業(yè)大省,小麥與玉米是其中重要的兩大糧食作物,其中小麥的健康穩(wěn)定生產(chǎn)對本省農(nóng)業(yè)系統(tǒng)和全國糧食生產(chǎn)都有重要意義。該省大陸性季風氣候明顯,自然降水量遠不能滿足小麥生產(chǎn)需要,必須依賴于灌溉用水,由于長期抽取地下水進行灌溉,華北地區(qū)出現(xiàn)了全國最大的地下漏斗。在氣候變化與水資源短缺的今天,明確冬小麥生產(chǎn)的區(qū)域分布及其影響因素,可為本省小麥合理布局及科學生產(chǎn)規(guī)劃提供依據(jù),促使全省糧食的安全生產(chǎn)和資源的可持續(xù)利用。本文基于冬小麥產(chǎn)量、播種面積以及灌溉面積、化肥使用量、農(nóng)藥使用量、農(nóng)業(yè)機械總動力等要素的數(shù)據(jù),以縣市平均冬小麥播種面積大于總播種面積的20%為標準選取冬小麥主產(chǎn)縣(101個縣市),以主產(chǎn)縣市為基本研究單元,運用系統(tǒng)聚類分析、因子分析、逐步回歸分析、單因素方差分析等方法,并結合綜合比較優(yōu)勢模型,分析了河北省冬小麥生產(chǎn)的時空分布及影響因素。得到如下主要結論:(1)利用1980-2014年資料分析表明,河北省冬小麥時間變化特征為:播種面積沒有隨時間顯著變化,但是近兩年來減少明顯;單產(chǎn)與總產(chǎn)量變化趨勢基本一致,隨時間顯著提高。(2)河北省冬小麥既具有綜合比較優(yōu)勢,又具有規(guī)模比較優(yōu)勢、單產(chǎn)比較優(yōu)勢與效益比較優(yōu)勢,與玉米、大豆、稻谷等糧食作物比較,冬小麥是全省最具生產(chǎn)優(yōu)勢的糧食作物。(3)基于1998-2014年冬小麥生產(chǎn)資料,通過聚類分析方法將全省冬小麥主產(chǎn)區(qū)分為四個(Ⅰ~Ⅳ),從Ⅰ區(qū)向Ⅳ區(qū)產(chǎn)量依次遞減,產(chǎn)量變異依次增大,并且各區(qū)間差異顯著(P0.05)。說明越是低產(chǎn)區(qū)產(chǎn)量越不穩(wěn)定。因子分析結果顯示,農(nóng)業(yè)機械總動力因子(F1)、化肥使用量因子(F2)、灌溉面積因子(F3)、農(nóng)藥使用量因子(F4)、年降水量因子(F5)、年降水量極小值因子(F6)等6個主成分因子被提取。其中F1、F2、F3、F4、F6與冬小麥產(chǎn)量均值(Y)有顯著的線性回歸關系(R2=0.569,P0.05),化肥使用量因子(F2)、灌溉面積因子(F3)分別解釋了產(chǎn)量均值(Y)的23.6%、14.2%,農(nóng)藥使用量因子(F4)、農(nóng)業(yè)機械總動力因子(F1)與年降水量極小值因子(F6)分別解釋了10.1%、4.7%、4.2%。說明化肥使用量是影響河北省冬小麥生產(chǎn)區(qū)域分布的首要因素,其次是灌溉面積,而農(nóng)藥使用量、農(nóng)業(yè)機械總動力以及年降水量極小值對冬小麥生產(chǎn)區(qū)域分布影響微弱。年降水量(F5)影響效應不顯著,說明各區(qū)間年降水量較均勻,對冬小麥生產(chǎn)的區(qū)域分布影響不顯著。另外,全省冬小麥播種面積與產(chǎn)量水平的區(qū)域吻合度較好(R2=0.051,P0.05),基本上播種面積比重大的地區(qū)其產(chǎn)量水平高,說明現(xiàn)有的冬小麥生產(chǎn)區(qū)域布局基本合理。但也存在不合理的現(xiàn)象,如邢臺縣及分布在渤海西岸的Ⅳ區(qū)的個別縣市產(chǎn)量低,播種面積比重大,認為該縣市所在區(qū)域冬小麥種植與收成有所失調,需要慎重審視。
[Abstract]:Hebei Province is an important agricultural province in China, among which wheat and corn are two important food crops. The healthy and stable production of wheat plays an important role in the agricultural system of Hebei Province and the national grain production. The continental monsoon climate of the province is obvious, and the natural precipitation is far from meeting the needs of wheat production. It must rely on irrigation water. Because of the long-term groundwater extraction for irrigation, the largest underground funnel has appeared in North China. In today's climate change and water shortage, the regional distribution of winter wheat production and its influencing factors can provide the basis for the rational distribution and scientific production planning of wheat in this province, and promote the safe production of grain and the sustainable utilization of resources in the whole province. Based on the data of winter wheat yield, sowing area and irrigation area, fertilizer usage, pesticide use, total power of agricultural machinery, etc. The average sowing area of winter wheat in county and city is more than 20% of the total sowing area. The main winter wheat producing county (101 counties and cities) is selected as the standard, and the main producing county is taken as the basic research unit. The system cluster analysis, factor analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used. The spatial and temporal distribution and influencing factors of winter wheat production in Hebei Province were analyzed by means of single factor variance analysis and combined with comprehensive comparative advantage model. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) based on the analysis of the data from 1980 to 2014, the characteristics of winter wheat time variation in Hebei Province are as follows: the sowing area does not change significantly with time, but it decreases obviously in the last two years, and the variation trend of yield per unit yield is basically consistent with that of total yield. (2) Winter wheat in Hebei Province has both comprehensive comparative advantage and comparative advantage in scale, comparative advantage in yield per unit yield and comparative advantage in benefit, compared with corn, soybean, rice and other grain crops. Winter wheat is the most advantageous food crop in the province. (3) based on the data of winter wheat production from 1998 to 2014, the main winter wheat production areas in the province are divided into four areas (鈪，

本文編號：2265338