【摘要】：氣候變化正成為全球公認(rèn)的環(huán)境問題,農(nóng)業(yè)是國家的基礎(chǔ)性產(chǎn)業(yè),氣候因素對(duì)糧食生產(chǎn)的影響研究一直是學(xué)術(shù)界關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)。除氣候因素外,其他因素對(duì)糧食生產(chǎn)的影響也不容忽視。在農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域,水足跡提供了一種新的方法來評(píng)估農(nóng)作物對(duì)水資源的利用效率。本研究以半濕潤地區(qū)的典型灌區(qū)人民勝利渠灌區(qū)以及純井灌區(qū)和井渠灌區(qū)代表地成安縣和獲嘉縣為例,綜合灌區(qū)和農(nóng)戶兩個(gè)層次研究灌區(qū)糧食生產(chǎn)單位產(chǎn)量水足跡的影響因素。研究內(nèi)容與結(jié)論如下:(1)首先以人民勝利渠灌區(qū)為研究區(qū),基于1961—2013年的長系列數(shù)據(jù),采用彭曼公式和CROPWAT軟件,計(jì)算出歷年灌區(qū)冬小麥的單位產(chǎn)量藍(lán)水、綠水足跡,并根據(jù)計(jì)算結(jié)果進(jìn)行藍(lán)水、綠水足跡及其影響因子的時(shí)間序列分析。采用結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型方法,對(duì)藍(lán)水、綠水足跡與氣候和農(nóng)業(yè)投入因子的作用關(guān)系進(jìn)行路徑分析。結(jié)果表明:1961—2013年灌區(qū)冬小麥的藍(lán)水、綠水足跡均呈顯著下降趨勢,作物蒸散發(fā)(ETc)無顯著變化,冬小麥產(chǎn)量顯著增加是冬小麥藍(lán)水、綠水足跡下降的主要原因;影響冬小麥ETc的主要?dú)夂蛞蛩厥瞧骄L(fēng)速、平均氣溫、相對(duì)濕度和日照時(shí)數(shù);在不考慮農(nóng)業(yè)投入的影響時(shí),灌區(qū)冬小麥生長季平均風(fēng)速是對(duì)藍(lán)水、綠水足跡影響最大的氣候因素,日照時(shí)數(shù)和有效降水的影響次之;在農(nóng)業(yè)投入和氣候因素的共同作用下,冬小麥藍(lán)水、綠水足跡的主要影響因素為農(nóng)用化肥使用折純量、農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械總動(dòng)力和有效降水。(2)以成安縣與獲嘉縣為研究區(qū),采用彭曼公式和作物需水量法從微觀上定量核算在不同的灌溉程度下農(nóng)戶的糧食生產(chǎn)作物需水量,并進(jìn)一步核算在不同的投入水平和自然條件下具有不同的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)特征的農(nóng)戶的糧食生產(chǎn)單位產(chǎn)量水足跡。在此基礎(chǔ)上,采用多元回歸分析方法對(duì)影響農(nóng)戶糧食生產(chǎn)水足跡的氣候因素和非氣候因素進(jìn)行定量分離,明確影響農(nóng)戶糧食生產(chǎn)水足跡的關(guān)鍵因素。得出以下結(jié)論:從農(nóng)戶層次來看,農(nóng)戶的灌溉保障程度及家庭特征為影響農(nóng)戶糧食作物綠水足跡的關(guān)鍵因素。農(nóng)戶需水緊缺程度(作物生育期間的有效降水量/作物需水量)通過灌溉保障程度對(duì)糧食產(chǎn)量、作物水足跡間產(chǎn)生影響。其它條件不變的情況下,需水越緊缺,農(nóng)戶的糧食作物灌溉保障程度會(huì)減小,產(chǎn)量會(huì)隨之減少,藍(lán)水足跡隨之增加,綠水足跡隨之增加。夏玉米變化程度小于冬小麥。(3)本研究最后根據(jù)影響灌區(qū)和農(nóng)戶兩個(gè)層次糧食生產(chǎn)單位產(chǎn)量水足跡的關(guān)鍵因素,探明主要影響因素對(duì)糧食作物單位產(chǎn)量水足跡的影響程度。分析灌區(qū)光溫生產(chǎn)潛力的變化,明確氣候變化對(duì)灌區(qū)糧食作物產(chǎn)量的影響。結(jié)合氣候變化對(duì)作物需水量的影響分析,預(yù)測氣候變化引起的灌區(qū)糧食生產(chǎn)水足跡的變化。得出結(jié)論:在保持現(xiàn)有農(nóng)業(yè)投入水平和灌溉條件下,氣候因素的綜合影響使得未來灌區(qū)糧食作物藍(lán)綠水足跡均呈小幅下降趨勢,藍(lán)水足跡下降趨勢小于綠水足跡。
[Abstract]:Climate change is becoming a globally recognized environmental problem. Agriculture is the basic industry of a country. The impact of climate factors on grain production has always been a hot topic in academia. In this study, the influencing factors of water footprint per unit yield of grain production in the semi-humid areas were studied at two levels, i.e., the typical irrigation areas in Shengli Canal, Chengan County and Huojia County, as well as pure well as Jingqu and Jingqu irrigation areas. Based on the long series of data from 1961 to 2013 in the People's Shengli Canal Irrigation Area, the blue water and green water footprints of winter wheat per unit yield in the past years were calculated by Penman formula and CROPAT software, and the time series analysis of blue water, green water footprints and their influencing factors were carried out according to the calculated results. The results showed that: from 1961 to 2013, the green water footprint of Winter Wheat in the irrigation area showed a significant downward trend, crop evapotranspiration (ETc) had no significant change, winter wheat yield significantly increased was the main reason for the decline of winter wheat blue water, green water footprint; The main climatic factors of wheat ETc were average wind speed, average temperature, relative humidity and sunshine hours; the average wind speed in the growing season of Winter Wheat in irrigation area was the most important climatic factor for blue water, green water footprint, sunshine hours and effective precipitation, followed by the combined effects of agricultural input and climate factors. The main factors affecting the green water footprint and the blue water footprint of winter wheat were converted fertilizer use, total power of agricultural machinery and effective precipitation. (2) Taking Chengan and Huojia counties as study areas, the water requirements of grain production crops of farmers under different irrigation degrees were calculated quantitatively by Pengman formula and crop water requirement method. One-step calculation of water footprints per unit yield of grain production of farmers with different input levels and natural conditions is carried out. On this basis, the climatic and non-climatic factors affecting water footprints of grain production of farmers are quantitatively separated by means of multiple regression analysis, and the grain production of farmers is clearly affected. The following conclusions are drawn: From the level of farmers, the degree of irrigation security and family characteristics of farmers are the key factors affecting the green water footprint of grain crops. Other conditions remain unchanged, the more water demand, the less irrigation security of grain crops will be reduced, the yield will be reduced, the blue water footprint will be increased, and the green water footprint will be increased. The key factor of water footprint is to find out the influence degree of the main influencing factors on the water footprint per unit yield of grain crops. It is concluded that under the condition of maintaining the current level of agricultural input and irrigation, the combined effects of climate factors will make the blue and green water footprints of grain crops decrease slightly in the future, and the decreasing trend of the blue water footprints is smaller than that of the green water footprints.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北水利水電大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：S27

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