草原碳匯補(bǔ)償機(jī)制設(shè)計(jì)及仿真研究
本文選題:生態(tài)環(huán)境 + 草原碳匯; 參考:《內(nèi)蒙古工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文
【摘要】:隨著世界范圍內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,各國對于溫室氣體的過度排放,全球氣候變暖問題成為了各國共同面對的挑戰(zhàn)。政府間氣候變化專門委員會(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,簡稱IPCC)提出地球系統(tǒng)受到碳循環(huán)系統(tǒng)的直接影響。碳排放強(qiáng)度較大會導(dǎo)致全球溫度升高。為了能夠盡快的控制氣候變化的形勢,世界范圍內(nèi)的影響較大的國家間達(dá)成了一系列的國際公約。其中包括初始階段的《聯(lián)合國氣候變化框架公約》及之后隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)變化達(dá)成的《京都議定書》和后來的《巴黎氣候協(xié)定》,其中碳匯經(jīng)濟(jì)成為了這些公約的重要組成部分,然而現(xiàn)階段在我國碳匯經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展還主要集中在森林碳匯的發(fā)展研究方面,在草原碳匯的研究方面還較為初級,即便如此,草原碳匯補(bǔ)償機(jī)制對整個(gè)草原碳匯發(fā)展的激勵(lì)確不可忽視。良好的草原碳匯補(bǔ)償機(jī)制表現(xiàn)為內(nèi)在的各個(gè)因素之間的和諧發(fā)展,文章以此為出發(fā)點(diǎn),對我國草原碳匯補(bǔ)償機(jī)制進(jìn)行了分析、構(gòu)建與模擬。論文的第一部分,主要介紹了草原碳匯補(bǔ)償機(jī)制研究的背景、建立草原碳匯補(bǔ)償機(jī)制的意義和現(xiàn)階段在草原碳匯方面的國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀,以及文章所用的研究方法、本文的研究思路及所要研究的主要內(nèi)容。論文第二章主要在查閱大量文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上對草原碳匯和草原碳匯補(bǔ)償相關(guān)概念進(jìn)行細(xì)分與界定,并且在此基礎(chǔ)上對本文中所用到的方法系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)進(jìn)行介紹,為文章后續(xù)研究奠定了理論基礎(chǔ)。第三章從國際框架的角度出發(fā),客觀描述了《京都議定書》、《巴黎氣候協(xié)定》等國際公約下對我國草原碳匯補(bǔ)償?shù)挠绊?通過對現(xiàn)狀的研究探討,從政府和市場的角度分析了我國草原碳匯補(bǔ)償機(jī)制現(xiàn)在的發(fā)展存在的問題。第四章運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的方法,對我國草原碳匯補(bǔ)償機(jī)制中所涉及的相互關(guān)系,量化了因果關(guān)系圖,并且對反饋關(guān)系進(jìn)行了分析。第五章采用了系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)仿真模擬的方法,對我國草原碳匯補(bǔ)償機(jī)制進(jìn)行了定量分析,對草原碳匯補(bǔ)償?shù)倪\(yùn)行機(jī)制做了明確的說明,進(jìn)一步分析了其中所涉及到的子系統(tǒng)。并且根據(jù)系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)(System Dynamics,簡稱SD)圖中所涉及的變量的分析,收集了大量相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用Vensim DSS軟件對模型進(jìn)行了仿真模擬,對所得出的仿真結(jié)果進(jìn)行了進(jìn)一步分析。最后,根據(jù)所做系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)分析,對我國草原碳匯補(bǔ)償機(jī)制的設(shè)計(jì)和完善提出了具體的政策建議。本文通過對我國草原碳匯補(bǔ)償機(jī)制發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀的分析和對我國草原碳匯補(bǔ)償機(jī)制的設(shè)計(jì)及模擬得出了政府、市場和個(gè)人相互作用的補(bǔ)償機(jī)制。因此,建立并發(fā)展我國草原碳匯補(bǔ)償機(jī)制要從政府、市場和個(gè)人三方面入手,并且結(jié)合法律、宣傳等要素,建立并發(fā)展我國草原碳匯補(bǔ)償機(jī)制。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the world economy and the excessive emission of greenhouse gases, global warming has become a common challenge. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) argues that the Earth system is directly affected by the carbon cycle. Higher carbon emissions can lead to higher global temperatures. In order to control the situation of climate change as soon as possible, a series of international conventions have been reached among the most influential countries around the world. These include the initial United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change and the subsequent Kyoto Protocol, as the global economy changed, and the subsequent Paris Climate Agreement, of which the economy of carbon sinks became an important component of those conventions, However, at the present stage, the development of carbon sink economy in China is mainly focused on the development and research of forest carbon sinks, and the research on grassland carbon sinks is still at the primary level, even so. The compensation mechanism of grassland carbon sink can not be ignored to encourage the development of the whole grassland carbon sink. The good compensation mechanism of grassland carbon sequestration is the harmonious development among various factors. This paper analyzes, constructs and simulates the compensation mechanism of grassland carbon sink in China. The first part of the paper mainly introduces the background of the research on the compensation mechanism of the grassland carbon sink, the significance of establishing the compensation mechanism of the grassland carbon sink, the current research situation at home and abroad on the grassland carbon sink at present, and the research methods used in the article. The research ideas and main contents of this paper. In the second chapter, the related concepts of grassland carbon sink and grassland carbon sink compensation are subdivided and defined on the basis of consulting a large number of literatures, and then the systematic dynamics of the methods used in this paper are introduced. It lays a theoretical foundation for further research. The third chapter, from the perspective of international framework, objectively describes the impact of international conventions, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Climate Agreement, on the compensation of grassland carbon sinks in China. The problems existing in the development of grassland carbon sequestration compensation mechanism in China are analyzed from the point of view of government and market. In chapter 4, we use the method of system dynamics to quantify the causality diagram of the compensation mechanism of grassland carbon sink in China, and analyze the feedback relation. In the fifth chapter, the simulation method of system dynamics is used to quantitatively analyze the compensation mechanism of grassland carbon sink in China. The operating mechanism of compensation for grassland carbon sink is explained clearly, and the subsystem involved is analyzed. According to the analysis of the variables involved in the system Dynamics (SD) diagram, a large number of relevant data are collected, and the model is simulated with Vensim DSS software, and the simulation results are further analyzed. Finally, according to the system dynamics analysis, the paper puts forward some specific policy suggestions on the design and improvement of the compensation mechanism of grassland carbon sinks in China. Based on the analysis of the present situation of the development of the compensation mechanism of grassland carbon sinks in China and the design and simulation of the compensation mechanism of the grassland carbon sinks in China, the compensation mechanism of the interaction among the government, the market and the individual is obtained in this paper. Therefore, it is necessary to establish and develop the compensation mechanism of grassland carbon sink in our country from three aspects of government, market and individual, and combine the elements of law, propaganda and so on, to establish and develop the compensation mechanism of grassland carbon sink in our country.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:內(nèi)蒙古工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2017
【分類號】:S812;F323.212
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