本文選題：臺風(fēng) + 農(nóng)業(yè)��； 參考：《華東師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：臺風(fēng)是影響巨大的災(zāi)害性天氣系統(tǒng)。一方面,臺風(fēng)常帶來充沛降水,可緩解部分地區(qū)的旱情,保障農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn),對于淡水資源和生態(tài)環(huán)境維系具有重要意義;同時臺風(fēng)能夠促進(jìn)熱循環(huán),對于維持熱平衡具有重要作用。另一方面,臺風(fēng)突發(fā)性強(qiáng)、破壞力大,往往帶來重大損失,是世界上最嚴(yán)重的自然災(zāi)害之一。對臺風(fēng)導(dǎo)致的農(nóng)業(yè)災(zāi)害進(jìn)行風(fēng)險評估是臺風(fēng)災(zāi)害響應(yīng)研究的重要組成部分,是臺風(fēng)防災(zāi)減災(zāi)和損失評估的重要基礎(chǔ)。在臺風(fēng)氣象數(shù)據(jù)存在時空尺度限制、農(nóng)業(yè)災(zāi)害數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計不完整及其空間信息不明確,尤其是農(nóng)作物受災(zāi)面積無法準(zhǔn)確獲得的條件下,進(jìn)行臺風(fēng)導(dǎo)致農(nóng)業(yè)災(zāi)害的風(fēng)險評估非常有意義。因此,本研究即聚焦臺風(fēng)導(dǎo)致農(nóng)業(yè)災(zāi)害的風(fēng)險評估,主要從臺風(fēng)風(fēng)險評價、臺風(fēng)影響下的農(nóng)業(yè)災(zāi)損估算兩個方面展開。其中,臺風(fēng)災(zāi)害的風(fēng)險評價可以促進(jìn)決策者清楚認(rèn)識臺風(fēng)致災(zāi)的農(nóng)作物分布狀況及災(zāi)害程度的區(qū)域格局特征;而臺風(fēng)災(zāi)害導(dǎo)致的農(nóng)業(yè)損失研究能夠為防災(zāi)減災(zāi)、災(zāi)后重建及農(nóng)業(yè)保險理賠工作提供相關(guān)依據(jù),為農(nóng)業(yè)健康穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的政策支持提供參考。首先,在分析臺風(fēng)對農(nóng)田及農(nóng)作物影響的潛在機(jī)理基礎(chǔ)上,探索臺風(fēng)導(dǎo)致農(nóng)作物受災(zāi)的多方面因素,建立臺風(fēng)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評價體系。即通過深入了解臺風(fēng)致災(zāi)的相關(guān)途徑,推理這些途徑背后的可能過程,挖掘出臺風(fēng)影響農(nóng)作物的11項關(guān)鍵致災(zāi)因子(涵蓋大風(fēng)、降雨、土壤、地形、河網(wǎng)等五個方面)。針對這些因子,再建立層次分析模型,調(diào)查評價不同致災(zāi)因子的相對重要性,確定不同因子在整體災(zāi)損評估模型中的權(quán)重,從而完成臺風(fēng)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估。其次,選擇廣東省為臺風(fēng)導(dǎo)致農(nóng)業(yè)災(zāi)損的估算示例區(qū)域,以農(nóng)作物受災(zāi)面積作為估算的表征目標(biāo),從大風(fēng)、降雨、土壤、地形、河網(wǎng)五個方面挖掘出8個臺風(fēng)致災(zāi)相關(guān)因子,并以此為自變量,建立多元線性回歸判定方程,對降雨洪澇情境下農(nóng)作物是否產(chǎn)生損失進(jìn)行判斷;并參考相關(guān)學(xué)者關(guān)于大風(fēng)情況下農(nóng)作物受災(zāi)狀況的研究成果,建立大風(fēng)情境下農(nóng)作物受災(zāi)判定方程。隨后,在臺風(fēng)歷史記錄中選擇典型臺風(fēng)受災(zāi)案例數(shù)據(jù),以上述降雨和大風(fēng)的農(nóng)作物受災(zāi)判定方程為基礎(chǔ),不斷調(diào)整模型參數(shù)進(jìn)行迭代,計算農(nóng)作物受災(zāi)面積;再根據(jù)最小二乘原理對農(nóng)業(yè)損失面積估算值與真實值進(jìn)行比較,根據(jù)誤差閾值條件最終確定模型參數(shù),建立臺風(fēng)致災(zāi)的農(nóng)業(yè)損失估算模型。最后,本研究另選其它臺風(fēng)致災(zāi)的案例數(shù)據(jù)驗證模型,對臺風(fēng)致災(zāi)的農(nóng)業(yè)損失估算模型進(jìn)行可用性驗證與精度評價。農(nóng)業(yè)損失估算模型在廣東省2008年09號臺風(fēng)"北冥"、2008年14號臺風(fēng)"黑格比"、2009年07號臺風(fēng)"天鵝"、2012年13號臺風(fēng)"啟德"致災(zāi)的農(nóng)作物損失面積估算的過程中,誤差精度在20.3%以內(nèi)。接著,選擇不同的臺風(fēng)受災(zāi)案例數(shù)據(jù),確定針對不同臺風(fēng)受災(zāi)案例數(shù)據(jù)下的農(nóng)業(yè)損失估算模型參數(shù),評價不同模型參數(shù)下臺風(fēng)致災(zāi)的農(nóng)業(yè)損失估算模型的誤差,分析臺風(fēng)災(zāi)情數(shù)據(jù)樣本對農(nóng)作物損失面積估算精度的影響。論文主要工作:建立了我國臺風(fēng)影響下的農(nóng)業(yè)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估模型,利用相關(guān)因子建立了臺風(fēng)導(dǎo)致的農(nóng)作物損失估算模型,初步解決了臺風(fēng)導(dǎo)致的農(nóng)作物受災(zāi)面積長期無法客觀估算的問題;同時,選擇不同臺風(fēng)災(zāi)情案例數(shù)據(jù)確定模型參數(shù),對農(nóng)作物損失面積估算模型的合理性進(jìn)行驗證,結(jié)果表明該方法在明確的災(zāi)情和地域情境下是有效的,為后續(xù)的精準(zhǔn)建模及完善提供了一種框架性的視角。
[Abstract]:Typhoon is a huge and catastrophic weather system. On the one hand, typhoon often brings abundant precipitation, which can relieve the drought in some areas, ensure the agricultural production and maintain the fresh water resources and ecological environment. At the same time, typhoon can promote thermal cycle and play an important role in maintaining heat balance. On the other hand, typhoon is sudden and strong, It is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world, and it is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world. The risk assessment of the agricultural disasters caused by the typhoon is an important part of the typhoon disaster response research. It is an important basis for the typhoon disaster prevention and reduction and the loss assessment. It is very meaningful to assess the risk of agricultural disasters caused by typhoons. Therefore, this study focuses on the risk assessment of agricultural disasters caused by typhoons, mainly from typhoon risk assessment, and two agricultural disaster estimates under the influence of typhoons. Among them, the risk assessment of typhoon disaster can promote the decision-makers to understand the distribution of crops and the characteristics of the regional pattern of disasters, and the research on agricultural losses caused by typhoon disaster can provide the basis for disaster prevention and reduction, post disaster reconstruction and agricultural insurance compensation work, so that the health of Agriculture is stable and stable. First, on the basis of the analysis of the potential mechanism of Typhoon Effects on farmland and crops, we explore the multifaceted factors caused by the typhoon caused by the typhoon and establish the risk assessment system of typhoon disaster. That is, through the thorough understanding of the related ways of typhoon disaster, the possible process behind these channels is put forward and the typhoon is excavated. 11 key factors affecting crop disaster (including wind, rainfall, soil, terrain, river network, etc.). In view of these factors, a hierarchical analysis model is established to investigate the relative importance of different disaster factors and determine the weight of different factors in the overall damage assessment model, thus completing the risk assessment of Typhoon disaster. Secondly, This paper selects the example area of Guangdong province to estimate the damage of the typhoon caused by the typhoon. Taking the area of crop disaster as the target of estimation, we excavate 8 related factors of typhoon disaster from five aspects of wind, rain, soil, terrain and river network, and set up a multiple linear regression determination equation, and the crop is the crop under the situation of rainfall and flood. No loss is judged. And referring to the relevant scholars' research results on the situation of crop disaster in the wind situation, the determination equation of crop disaster in the wind situation is established. Then, the typical typhoon disaster case data is selected in the typhoon history record, based on the rainfall and the wind crop disaster determination equation. The whole model parameters are iterated and the crop disaster area is calculated. According to the least square principle, the estimated value of the agricultural loss area and the real value are compared, and the model parameters of the model are finally determined according to the error threshold conditions. Finally, the case data verification model of the typhoon caused disaster is selected in this study. The accuracy of the agricultural loss estimation model was 20.3% in the process of estimating the damage area of the crops caused by Typhoon "Eic", No. 07 typhoon "Swan" in 2009, and typhoon "Eic" on 2012 13. The accuracy of the agricultural loss estimation model was 20.3% in the process of estimating the area of crop loss caused by Typhoon "Eic" in 2012 13. Then, we choose different typhoon disaster case data to determine the parameters of the agricultural loss estimation model under the data of different typhoon disaster cases, evaluate the error of the agricultural loss estimation model of typhoon caused by different model parameters, and analyze the influence of typhoon disaster data samples on the estimation precision of agricultural crop loss area. Work: establishing the risk assessment model of agricultural disaster under the influence of typhoon in China, using related factors to establish the estimation model of crop loss caused by typhoon, and preliminarily solve the problem that the crop affected area caused by typhoon can not be objectively estimated for a long time. At the same time, the model parameters of different typhoon disaster cases are selected to determine the agricultural work. The rationality of the area estimation model is verified. The results show that the method is effective in the clear disaster situation and regional situation, and provides a framework perspective for the follow-up precision modeling and improvement.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：S424

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