本文關(guān)鍵詞： 耕地生態(tài)安全評價 PSR 變權(quán)模型 TOPSIS 障礙度診斷 山東省　出處：《山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：耕地是土地的精華,是農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中最基本的生產(chǎn)材料。隨著人類的社會經(jīng)濟活動和耕地資源過度利用,耕地生態(tài)環(huán)境遭到破壞,耕地生態(tài)安全問題日愈嚴(yán)重。因此開展區(qū)域耕地生態(tài)安全評價研究顯得非常必要。本文在人地關(guān)系理論、可持續(xù)利用理論、系統(tǒng)科學(xué)理論和生態(tài)系統(tǒng)平衡理論等相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ)上,選取山東省為研究區(qū),根據(jù)區(qū)域耕地生態(tài)安全現(xiàn)狀與特點,基于PSR模型,從壓力、狀態(tài)、響應(yīng)三個方面選取20項具體指標(biāo)構(gòu)建區(qū)域耕地生態(tài)安全評價指標(biāo)體系;采用層次分析法與熵值法相結(jié)合計算各指標(biāo)靜態(tài)權(quán)重,運用變權(quán)TOPSIS評價模型對2006-2015年區(qū)域耕地生態(tài)安全水平進行了定量分析評價,探討區(qū)域耕地生態(tài)安全狀況在不同懲罰系數(shù)下評價結(jié)果的變化,認為當(dāng)懲罰系數(shù)k=0.5評價結(jié)果最理想;在此基礎(chǔ)上進行綜合評價和子系統(tǒng)層面的評價分析。后引入障礙度診斷模型尋找制約區(qū)域耕地生態(tài)安全水平的主要障礙因子,在指標(biāo)層和子系統(tǒng)層進行了分析討論。針對以上分析結(jié)果提出相應(yīng)對策措施。主要結(jié)論如下:(1)2006-2015年限內(nèi),山東省耕地生態(tài)安全指數(shù)C_i~*由大到小依次為:C_2013~*(0.7087)、C_2012~*(0.7012)、C_2011~*(0.6998)、C_2015~*(0.6874)、C_2010~*(0.6805)、C_2014~*(0.6584)、C_2009~*(0.6514)、C_2008~*(0.6122)、C_2007~*(0.5766)、C_2006~*(0.5260)。其中,2006年山東省耕地生態(tài)安全等級處于安全敏感級(II),2007-2008年處于臨界安全級(III),2009-2015年處于基本安全極(IV),耕地生態(tài)安全水平總體呈上升態(tài)勢。然而,山東省耕地生態(tài)安全形勢還不容樂觀,耕地生態(tài)安全指數(shù)還不穩(wěn)定,且近兩年出現(xiàn)了下降趨勢,整體介于較不安全(II)到基本安全狀態(tài)(IV)之間,有較大上升空間;總結(jié)的說,耕地生態(tài)安全水平提升有限,整體未達到安全級別(V),沒有本質(zhì)性的好轉(zhuǎn)。(2)從各子系統(tǒng)來看,山東省耕地生態(tài)安全的壓力子系統(tǒng)與響應(yīng)子系統(tǒng)整體上波動上升,狀態(tài)子系統(tǒng)有明顯的波動。具體分析,2006年只有響應(yīng)子系統(tǒng)處于安全敏感級(II),其余兩個子系統(tǒng)均處于臨界安全級(III),到2015年僅有壓力子系統(tǒng)與響應(yīng)子系統(tǒng)上升到基本安全級(IV),狀態(tài)子系統(tǒng)則處于臨界安全級(III),整體上有明顯的下降趨勢。然而,壓力子系統(tǒng)和響應(yīng)子系統(tǒng)近年來已經(jīng)進入基本安全級(IV),并且整體波動上升。(3)依據(jù)障礙度診斷結(jié)果,制約山東省耕地生態(tài)安全水平的主要障礙因子是:環(huán)保投資占GDP比重、人均水資源占有量、森林覆蓋率、農(nóng)村人均純收入、單位耕地農(nóng)業(yè)機械動力、水土協(xié)調(diào)度、水土流失治理面積等,其中環(huán)保投資占GDP比重是十年內(nèi)的首要障礙因子。子系統(tǒng)層面,響應(yīng)子系統(tǒng)的障礙度在整體上最高且呈現(xiàn)波動下降,2015年為36.96%;狀態(tài)子系統(tǒng)的障礙度次之且呈現(xiàn)波動上升,2015年為41.74%;壓力子系統(tǒng)的障礙度最小且波動下降,2015年為21.30%。對于目前山東省面臨的主要耕地生態(tài)安全問題,可從保護水資源、加大環(huán)保投入、提高植被覆蓋率、降低耕地負荷、增加土地投入等角度進行治理。
[Abstract]:Cultivated land is the essence, is the most basic production material in agricultural production. With the social and economic activities and excessive utilization of cultivated land resources, cultivated land ecological environment destruction, land ecological security problems increasingly serious. So the research on the ecological security evaluation of cultivated land area is very necessary. In this paper, the theory of human land relationship, sustainable utilization in theory, the system theory and the balance of the ecological system theory on the basis of Shandong province were selected as the study area, according to the current situation and characteristics of regional land ecological security, based on the PSR model, from the pressure, state, response from three aspects of 20 specific indicators to construct the evaluation index system of regional ecological security of cultivated land; the index of static calculation weight using AHP and entropy method combined with variable weight TOPSIS evaluation model for the quantitative analysis of regional land ecological security level 2006-2015 Study on the change of evaluation, the security situation of regional land ecological evaluation results in different penalty coefficients, that when the penalty coefficient k=0.5 evaluation results of the ideal; analysis and evaluation on the basis of comprehensive evaluation and subsystem level. After the introduction of obstaclesdiagnosis model to find the main obstacle factors restricting the area of cultivated land ecological security level, in the index layer and the subsystem layer are analyzed and discussed. Based on the above analysis results and put forward the corresponding countermeasures. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) 2006-2015 years, the cultivated land in Shandong Province ecological security index of C_i~* in descending order: C_2013~* (0.7087), C_2012~* (0.7012), C_2011~* (0.6998), C_2015~* (0.6874), C_2010~* (0.6805), C_2014~* (0.6584), C_2009~* (0.6514), C_2008~* (0.6122), C_2007~* (0.5766), C_2006~* (0.5260). Among them, the level of ecological security of cultivated land in Shandong province in 2006 in security sensitive level (II), 2007-2008 In the critical safety level (III), 2009-2015 years in the basic safety (IV), the level of ecological security of cultivated land increased. However, the Shandong province cultivated land ecological security situation is not optimistic, the ecological security index of arable land is not stable, and in recent years the decline trend, the overall is relatively unsafe (II) to basic safety state (IV), a large increase in space; summary, enhance the level of ecological security of cultivated land is limited, the overall did not reach the level of security (V), there is no essential improvement. (2) from the point of view of each subsystem, the pressure of cultivated land in Shandong Province ecological security subsystem and subsystem of the overall response on the increased volatility, state system has obvious fluctuation. Specific analysis, in 2006 only response subsystem in security sensitive level (II), the other two subsystems are at a critical level of security (III), by 2015 only pressure subsystem and subsystem response up to The basic security level (IV), the state of subsystem is at a critical level of security (III), a significant downward trend on the whole. However, the pressure response subsystem and subsystem in recent years has entered the basic security level (IV), and the overall volatility increased. (3) on the basis of obstaclesdiagnosis results, the main obstacle factor restricting Shandong province cultivated land ecological security level is: environmental protection investment accounted for the proportion of GDP, the per capita water resources, forest coverage rate, the per capita net income of rural land units, agricultural machinery power, water co scheduling, area of water and soil conservation, the environmental protection investment accounted for the proportion of GDP is the primary obstacle factor within ten years. The system level, the subsystem responses in the highest overall and obstacle degree fluctuated downward, in 2015 36.96%; the state system obstacle degree and fluctuated upward, to 41.74% in 2015; the pressure subsystem and obstacle degree minimum fluctuation decreased 2 015 years for 21.30%., for the current main farmland ecological security problems in Shandong Province, we can manage from the perspective of protecting water resources, increasing input in environmental protection, increasing vegetation coverage, reducing cultivated land load and increasing land investment.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F323.211

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 盧濤;周學(xué)武;王占岐;魏超;;基于VW模型的土地可持續(xù)利用評價及時空特征分析——以安徽省市域為例[J];中國土地科學(xué);2015年12期

2 項瓊;;基于組合權(quán)重TOPSIS模型的區(qū)域水資源承載力綜合評價[J];西北水電;2015年04期

3 郭永奇;;基于懲罰型變權(quán)的農(nóng)地生態(tài)安全預(yù)警評價——以新疆生產(chǎn)建設(shè)兵團為例[J];地域研究與開發(fā);2014年05期

4 李燦;張鳳榮;朱泰峰;奉婷;安萍莉;;基于熵權(quán)TOPSIS模型的土地利用績效評價及關(guān)聯(lián)分析[J];農(nóng)業(yè)工程學(xué)報;2013年05期

5 金淑婷;石培基;李博;潘竟虎;魏偉;;武威市綠洲區(qū)耕地集約利用綜合評估[J];水土保持通報;2013年01期

6 李磊;金菊良;朱永楠;;TOPSIS方法應(yīng)用中若干問題的探討[J];水電能源科學(xué);2012年03期

7 王千;金曉斌;周寅康;;河北省耕地生態(tài)安全及空間聚集格局[J];農(nóng)業(yè)工程學(xué)報;2011年08期

8 楊寶臣;陳躍;;基于變權(quán)和TOPSIS方法的灰色關(guān)聯(lián)決策模型[J];系統(tǒng)工程;2011年06期

9 江勇;付梅臣;杜春艷;伍賢斌;;基于DPSIR模型的生態(tài)安全動態(tài)評價研究——以河北永清縣為例[J];資源與產(chǎn)業(yè);2011年01期

10 李中才;劉林德;孫玉峰;崔金榮;;基于PSR方法的區(qū)域生態(tài)安全評價[J];生態(tài)學(xué)報;2010年23期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 吳冠岑;區(qū)域土地生態(tài)安全預(yù)警研究[D];南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué);2008年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前6條

1 盧濤;基于變權(quán)TOPSIS-DPSIR模型的土地生態(tài)安全評價[D];中國地質(zhì)大學(xué);2016年

2 程紅繼;河南省新密市耕地生態(tài)安全評價[D];西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué);2015年

3 王強;基于組合賦權(quán)和改進TOPSIS模型的長沙市生態(tài)可持續(xù)能力評價[D];中南大學(xué);2013年

4 王穎君;基于改進Topsis法的土地集約利用評價研究[D];華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué);2013年

5 楊俊;土地整治項目實施后效益評價研究[D];中國地質(zhì)大學(xué);2012年

6 劉靜靜;江漢平原湖泊面源污染效應(yīng)及調(diào)控機制研究[D];長江大學(xué);2012年

，

本文編號：1449684