本文關鍵詞：山東省水資源非農(nóng)化驅(qū)動因素研究　出處：《山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 水資源非農(nóng)化 驅(qū)動因素 主成分分析 多元線性回歸

【摘要】：近幾年在山東省水資源非農(nóng)化速度和規(guī)模不斷擴大的現(xiàn)實情況下,水資源利用的經(jīng)濟價值得以提高,也滿足了非農(nóng)經(jīng)濟的用水需求,同時在優(yōu)化配置水資源,實現(xiàn)利用效益最大化方面對我省水資源管理有著重要的作用。但是,許多問題也隨之產(chǎn)生,比如水資源非農(nóng)化的過度會引發(fā)糧食安全、破壞生態(tài)環(huán)境,損害水資源出讓方的利益等。面對這些負面效應本文分別從理論分析和實證分析的角度探討了山東省不同驅(qū)動因素對水資源非農(nóng)化的作用。通過查閱大量的文獻資料以及吸取國內(nèi)外研究學者的成果,總結(jié)并提煉出一套針對山東省現(xiàn)實情況的水資源非農(nóng)化驅(qū)動因素體系,并采用主成分分析法和多元線性回歸對其進行實證分析,從八個驅(qū)動因素中提取了五個具有主要影響作用的公共因子,從研究中可以發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)根據(jù)近10年山東省17地市的相關數(shù)據(jù),可以看出不同地區(qū)水資源非農(nóng)化程度存在差異,各因素對不同地區(qū)的影響不同,并且隨著時間的推移,非農(nóng)化的趨勢越來越顯著。(2)各驅(qū)動因素對山東省水資源非農(nóng)化的作用方向存在差異。其中經(jīng)濟增長、城鎮(zhèn)化、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變化、水資源利用比較收益、生態(tài)環(huán)境改善和水資源稟賦都對水資源非農(nóng)化有正向促進作用;而人口增長和有效灌溉水平對水資源非農(nóng)化具有抑制作用,近十年人口非農(nóng)化趨勢顯著且表現(xiàn)出結(jié)構(gòu)性的變化特征,同時伴隨著人口的增長引起了對糧食的需求不斷加大,從而需要擴大農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn),投入更多的水資源,而有效灌溉水平也決定了農(nóng)業(yè)用水的投入量,兩者都在一定程度上抑制了水資源非農(nóng)化加劇的趨勢。(3)各驅(qū)動因素對山東省水資源非農(nóng)化的作用程度不同。經(jīng)濟增長和城鎮(zhèn)化對其具有顯著的正向推進作用,而產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變化、水資源利用比較收益、生態(tài)環(huán)境改善和水資源稟賦都對水資源非農(nóng)化有促進的作用,但是影響程度較小,其中由非農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)值變化和水資源利用比較收益在內(nèi)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)因子影響效果更小,主要考慮到農(nóng)業(yè)內(nèi)部的結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整及地方政府的行為導致水資源利用比較收益發(fā)生變化從而弱化了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)因子對其的作用效果;而對水資源非農(nóng)化具有抑制作用的人口增長因素和有效灌溉水平因素的影響程度也不一樣,前者較后者來說,作用效果更強。通過以上研究結(jié)果,本文結(jié)合各驅(qū)動因素的作用方向和作用效果,根據(jù)新時代的發(fā)展要求為實現(xiàn)山東省水資源的合理配置提出了相應的政策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, in Shandong Province, the economic value of water resources utilization has been improved, and the water demand of non-agricultural economy has also been met, while the optimal allocation of water resources has been achieved under the situation of the expanding speed and scale of water resources in Shandong Province. Realizing the maximization of utilization benefits plays an important role in the management of water resources in our province. However, many problems also arise, such as excessive non-agricultural water resources will lead to food security, damage to the ecological environment. In the face of these negative effects, this paper discusses the effects of different driving factors on non-agricultural water resources in Shandong Province from the angle of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. Data and draw on the achievements of domestic and foreign scholars. Summarize and extract a set of non-agricultural driving factors system of water resources in Shandong Province, and use principal component analysis and multiple linear regression to carry out empirical analysis. Five major public factors were extracted from the eight driving factors. From the study, we found that: 1) based on the relevant data of 17 cities in Shandong Province in the past 10 years. It can be seen that there are differences in the degree of non-agricultural water resources in different regions, and the influence of different factors on different regions is different, and with the passage of time. The trend of non-agricultural development is becoming more and more significant. (2) different driving factors have different effects on non-agricultural water resources in Shandong Province. Among them, economic growth, urbanization, changes in industrial structure, and comparative benefits of water resources utilization. The improvement of ecological environment and the endowment of water resources have positive effects on the non-agricultural water resources. Population growth and effective irrigation level can inhibit the non-agricultural water resources. The trend of population non-agricultural in the last ten years is significant and shows structural characteristics. At the same time, with the growth of population, the demand for food is increasing, which requires the expansion of agricultural production and the investment of more water resources, and the level of effective irrigation also determines the amount of agricultural water input. Both of them have restrained to some extent the increasing trend of non-agricultural water resources. The effect of driving factors on non-agricultural water resources in Shandong Province is different. Economic growth and urbanization have a significant positive impact on the development of water resources in Shandong Province. The changes of industrial structure, the comparative benefits of water resources utilization, the improvement of ecological environment and the endowment of water resources all promote the non-agricultural conversion of water resources, but to a lesser extent. Among them, the effect of industrial structure factors, including the change of non-agricultural output value and the comparative benefit of water resources utilization, is smaller. The main consideration is that the structural adjustment of agriculture and the behavior of local government lead to the change of comparative income of water resources utilization, which weakens the effect of industrial structure factor on it. But the influence degree of population growth factor and effective irrigation level factor is not the same, the former is more effective than the latter. Combined with the direction and effect of each driving factor, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions for realizing the rational allocation of water resources in Shandong Province according to the development requirements of the new era.
【學位授予單位】：山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F323.213

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