本文選題：戶籍制度 + 動力��； 參考：《浙江大學(xué)》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：中國的戶籍制度改革在新世紀(jì)以前進(jìn)展緩慢,在新世紀(jì)以后卻有較為明顯的實(shí)質(zhì)性突破。但與此同時,仍有很多地方政府在具體實(shí)施戶籍制度改革時表現(xiàn)出了遲疑甚至反對。鑒于這一現(xiàn)實(shí)背景,本文旨在回答如下兩個問題：第一,新世紀(jì)以來什么樣的因素的出現(xiàn)為地方政府改革戶籍制度提供了新的動力從而帶來了戶籍制度改革的實(shí)質(zhì)性突破?第二,地方政府在推行戶籍制度改革時的遲疑或反對的根本原因是什么,又該如何破解這種阻力?本文的研究內(nèi)容主要包括以下四個方面：第一,新世紀(jì)以來,中國的勞動力市場發(fā)生了兩大深刻的變化：一是城鎮(zhèn)的勞動力供給開始從無限供給轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橛邢薰┙o,二是有著更強(qiáng)的平等意識和維權(quán)意識的新生代農(nóng)民工群體快速壯大。本文構(gòu)建的包含了勞動力競爭的地方政府競爭模型發(fā)現(xiàn),城鎮(zhèn)勞動力供給從無限供給轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橛邢薰┙o之后,地方政府就會開始對勞動力進(jìn)行競爭,地方政府向外來農(nóng)民工提供公共服務(wù)的邊際收益上升,由此促使了地方政府對戶籍制度的改革。本文構(gòu)建的包含了社會沖突的理論模型發(fā)現(xiàn),新生代農(nóng)民工的出現(xiàn)和壯大使得戶籍歧視下的非生產(chǎn)性損耗大幅度攀升,即政府提供均等化的公共服務(wù)的邊際收益上升,到某一個臨界點(diǎn)之后,改革戶籍制度、提供均等化的公共服務(wù)就會成為地方政府理性的、主動的選擇。第二,在上述勞動力競爭理論模型分析的基礎(chǔ)上,利用中國第五次人口普查和2005年1%人口抽樣調(diào)查微觀數(shù)據(jù),并采用基于傾向性得分匹配的雙重差分法控制選擇偏差和不可觀測因素可能造成的內(nèi)生性問題,考察戶籍制度改革對外來人口分布的影響后發(fā)現(xiàn),新世紀(jì)以來部分地區(qū)進(jìn)行的戶籍制度改革的確起到了吸引外來勞動力的作用。接著,利用2001-2014年地級市層面的求人倍率等數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行的進(jìn)一步的研究發(fā)現(xiàn),并沒有足夠的證據(jù)表明戶籍制度改革會對城鎮(zhèn)勞動力市場的供求狀況產(chǎn)生顯著的負(fù)面影響。第三,在上述社會沖突理論模型分析的基礎(chǔ)上,借助1997-2013年中國30個省的面板數(shù)據(jù)和PMG模型考察戶籍制度、外來人口比重與刑事犯罪率三者之間的關(guān)系后發(fā)現(xiàn),放松戶籍管制、提高外來人口獲得當(dāng)?shù)貞艨诘母怕?入戶概率),可以有效地降低刑事犯罪率。研究還發(fā)現(xiàn),在過去的戶籍制度下,外來人口比重的增加顯著提高了刑事犯罪率,但這主要是由外來人口中的暫住人口的增加導(dǎo)致的,戶籍遷入人口的增加沒有對犯罪率產(chǎn)生顯著影響；當(dāng)入戶概率提高到一定程度之后,外來人口的增加將不再對犯罪率產(chǎn)生顯著的影響。第四,利用2005年全國1%人口抽樣調(diào)查微觀數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算得到各個地區(qū)的市民化率(市民比重),并考察地區(qū)市民化率與個人勞動收入之間的因果關(guān)系,發(fā)現(xiàn)無論是用“常住非農(nóng)業(yè)戶口人口數(shù)占總常住人口數(shù)的比重”來衡量地區(qū)市民化率還是用“養(yǎng)老、失業(yè)、醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)三者的平均覆蓋率”來衡量地區(qū)市民化率,結(jié)果都表明,改革戶籍制度,推進(jìn)市民化進(jìn)程,給更多的非市民以市民身份和權(quán)利,不僅不會損害其他勞動者的收入,相反會產(chǎn)生正向的外部性使得他們從中獲益。歸納起來,本文的研究結(jié)論有以下兩個：第一,新世紀(jì)以來,中國勞動力市場出現(xiàn)的兩大深刻變化,即勞動力數(shù)量結(jié)構(gòu)的變化(城鎮(zhèn)勞動力供給遭遇短缺)和勞動力人員結(jié)構(gòu)的變化(新生代農(nóng)民工群體的壯大),造成了原有制度框架下的非均衡狀態(tài),為地方政府改革戶籍制度提供了潛在的獲益機(jī)會,這是戶籍制度改革在新世紀(jì)取得實(shí)質(zhì)性突破的根本原因。實(shí)證研究表明,新世紀(jì)以來的戶籍制度改革的確起到了預(yù)期的作用。第二,政府的有限理性使得它們無法對戶籍制度改革產(chǎn)生或?qū)a(chǎn)生的實(shí)際影響做出準(zhǔn)確的判斷是它們在改革戶籍制度時遲疑甚至反對的根本原因。破解戶籍制度改革的阻力的關(guān)鍵是對已有的改革的效應(yīng)進(jìn)行科學(xué)的評估和總結(jié),彌補(bǔ)政府在這一方面的信息不足。實(shí)證研究表明：戶籍制度改革可以在不惡化城鎮(zhèn)勞動力市場供求狀況的情況下吸引外來勞動力的流入；戶籍制度改革后外來人口的增加并不會導(dǎo)致地區(qū)刑事犯罪率的上升；戶籍制度改革后市民比重的提高不僅不會損害原有城鎮(zhèn)居民的收入,相反還能產(chǎn)生正向的外部性。所以說,部分地方政府由于有限理性和信息的不足在以往的戶籍制度改革決策上做出了錯誤的預(yù)期和選擇,在未來政府應(yīng)當(dāng)更加堅(jiān)決、大膽地推進(jìn)戶籍制度改革。
[Abstract]:The reform of the household registration system in China has progressed slowly before the new century, but there is a clear substantive breakthrough in the new century. But at the same time, there are still many local governments in the implementation of the reform of the household registration system. In view of this realistic background, this article aims to answer the following two questions: first, the new world The emergence of what kind of factors has provided a new impetus for the local government to reform the household registration system, which has brought about a substantial breakthrough in the reform of the household registration system. Second, what are the fundamental reasons for the hesitation or opposition of the local government in the reform of the household registration system and how to break this resistance? The main contents of this paper include the main contents of this paper. The following four aspects: first, since the new century, China's labor market has undergone two profound changes: first, the labor supply of cities and towns has begun to change from unlimited supply to limited supply, and the two is the rapid growth of the new generation of migrant workers, which have a stronger consciousness of equality and the awareness of rights. The competition model of the local government has found that the local government will begin to compete with the labor force after the supply of urban labor supply has changed from unlimited supply to the limited supply, and the marginal income of the local government to provide public service to the migrant workers is rising, which has prompted the local government to reform the household registration system. The theoretical model of the conflict has found that the emergence of the new generation of migrant workers and the non productive loss of the permanent residence registration of the Zhuang ambassadors greatly increase, that is, the marginal revenue of the government provides equal public services, and after a certain critical point, the reform of the household registration system and the provision of equal public service will become the rational of the local government. Second, on the basis of the analysis of the theoretical model of the labor force competition, using the fifth census of China and the microscopic data of the sampling survey of 1% population in 2005, and using the dual difference method based on the tendency score matching to control the endogenous problems caused by the selection deviation and the unobservable factors, the household registration system is investigated. After the influence of the leathers on the distribution of the foreign population, it is found that the reform of the household registration system in some areas since the new century has indeed played a role in attracting foreign labor. The supply and demand of the town labor market has a significant negative impact. Third, on the basis of the analysis of the theoretical model of social conflict, with the help of the panel data and PMG model of the 30 provinces in China for 1997-2013 years, the household registration system is examined, the proportion of the foreign population and the criminal crime rate between the three are found to relax the domicile control and improve the outsiders. It is also found that the increase in the proportion of foreign population has significantly increased the rate of criminal crime in the past household registration system, but it is mainly caused by the increase in the temporary population of the foreign population, and the increase in the population of the household registration is not produced by the crime rate. There is a significant impact. When the probability of entering the household is raised to a certain degree, the increase of the foreign population will no longer have a significant impact on the crime rate. Fourth, using the micro data of the national 1% population sampling survey in 2005 to calculate the citizenization rate (the proportion of the citizens) in each region, and to examine the cause of the local citizenization rate and the individual labor income. It is found that the rate of local citizenization is measured by "the proportion of permanent resident population of permanent resident population and the proportion of the total number of permanent residents" to measure the local citizenization rate or the average coverage rate of "the three persons of pension, unemployment and medical insurance". The result shows that the reform of the household registration system, the advancement of the citizenization process, and the more non townspeople to the city. The status and rights of the people will not only do not harm the income of other workers, but on the contrary will produce positive externalities to benefit them. In conclusion, there are two conclusions in this paper: first, since the new century, the two profound changes in the labor market in China, namely, the change of the labor force quantity structure (the supply of urban labor force) The shortage) and the changes in the structure of the labor force (the growth of the new generation of migrant workers) have caused the unbalanced state under the original system framework and provided the potential benefit opportunities for the local government to reform the household registration system. This is the fundamental reason for the substantial breakthrough in the reform of the household registration system in the new century. The reform of the household registration system has indeed played an expected role. Second, the government's limited rationality makes it impossible for them to make an accurate judgment of the reform of the household registration system or the actual impact that they will produce. The key to the resistance to the reform of the household registration system is the key to the reform of the household registration system. The effect of the reform is evaluated and summarized scientifically to make up for the lack of government information in this area. The empirical study shows that the reform of the household registration system can attract the influx of foreign labor without worsening the supply and demand of the urban labor market; the increase of the population after the reform of the household registration system will not lead to the criminal offenders in the region. The increase of the crime rate; the increase of the proportion of the citizens after the reform of the household registration system will not only do not harm the income of the original urban residents, but also produce positive externalities. Therefore, some local governments have made incorrect expectations and choices in the past household registration system reform decisions because of the limited rationality and the lack of information, and the government should be in the future. When more resolute, the reform of the household registration system was boldly pushed forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：D631.42

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