發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-30 00:13

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 全面二孩政策 效應(yīng)評(píng)估 多階段決策 雙目標(biāo)決策 政策優(yōu)化　出處：《中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年博士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：為應(yīng)對(duì)人口結(jié)構(gòu)失衡引發(fā)的各種社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題,2015年底中國(guó)實(shí)施了表征為放松生育管控的全面二孩政策。但對(duì)于此項(xiàng)政策的效果,學(xué)者依然存在諸多疑問(wèn),如放松生育管控是否會(huì)提高產(chǎn)出,協(xié)助中國(guó)順利實(shí)現(xiàn)百年目標(biāo)?是否會(huì)改善勞動(dòng)人口福利,落實(shí)政策生育力量;是否會(huì)從根本上改變未來(lái)的養(yǎng)老模式選擇,改善未來(lái)社會(huì)的養(yǎng)老狀況;全面二孩政策是否存在不足?若存在,應(yīng)該選擇何種配套性政策加以規(guī)避。若依然不能有效規(guī)避,在全面二孩政策之后,應(yīng)該安排何種生育政策,等等。針對(duì)上述問(wèn)題,主要采用多階段決策方法進(jìn)行研究發(fā)現(xiàn):首先,放松生育管控改變不了未來(lái)產(chǎn)出增速斷崖式下降的趨勢(shì);在產(chǎn)出和人均產(chǎn)出上,短期存在輕微的擠占效應(yīng),長(zhǎng)期存在較大的提升效應(yīng)。若民眾按照政策生育且缺乏配套政策,放松生育管控短期會(huì)輕微降低勞動(dòng)人口福利;長(zhǎng)期較大改善未來(lái)勞動(dòng)人口或當(dāng)前孩子未來(lái)的福利。這意味著在生育堆積力量釋放以后,民眾很可能不會(huì)有效響應(yīng)全面二孩政策,長(zhǎng)期通過(guò)生育實(shí)現(xiàn)的政策目標(biāo)很可能無(wú)法落實(shí)。雖然放松生育管控沒(méi)有從根本上改變未來(lái)最優(yōu)的養(yǎng)老模式選擇,短期又輕微降低了對(duì)老年人的代際支持水平,不能有效應(yīng)對(duì)養(yǎng)老汛期,但是在當(dāng)前代際贍養(yǎng)模式下,長(zhǎng)期改善了未來(lái)老年人口或者當(dāng)前勞動(dòng)人口未來(lái)的養(yǎng)老狀況。這意味著養(yǎng)老制度應(yīng)朝著積累制或繳費(fèi)確定的方向變軌;為了改善未來(lái)社會(huì)的養(yǎng)老狀況,當(dāng)前我們應(yīng)積極落實(shí)全面二孩政策,為應(yīng)對(duì)短期的養(yǎng)老汛期,應(yīng)著眼于其他政策調(diào)整和養(yǎng)老生產(chǎn)率提高。綜合放松生育管控在產(chǎn)出、福利及養(yǎng)老上的長(zhǎng)短期效應(yīng),對(duì)于社會(huì),按照政策生育,短期輕微有害,長(zhǎng)期卻較有利,整體上利大于弊。其次,為避免放松生育管控短期在產(chǎn)出、福利以及代際支持水平上的負(fù)面影響。通過(guò)模擬發(fā)現(xiàn),在實(shí)行全面二孩政策過(guò)程中,配套實(shí)施延遲退休等措施,可以提高社會(huì)產(chǎn)出,彌補(bǔ)生育的成本,在理論上,可以規(guī)避放松生育管控的負(fù)面影響�？紤]到配套性措施實(shí)施的難度和滯后性,未來(lái)城鎮(zhèn)化下家庭生育行為的變遷,全面二孩政策越來(lái)越無(wú)法解決后工業(yè)化時(shí)代生育行為的外部性,無(wú)法釋放保障社會(huì)福利的政策生育力量。從生育權(quán)安排的視角,構(gòu)建一個(gè)雙目標(biāo)決策模型,探討未來(lái)可能選擇的生育政策。結(jié)果顯示,在全面二孩政策之后,中國(guó)很可能選擇家庭自由生育政策。雖然家庭自由生育可以保障家庭福利,但是隨著社會(huì)從馬爾薩斯陷阱過(guò)渡到低生育陷阱,家庭自由生育依然不能解決生育的外部性和保障社會(huì)福利,所以生育政策進(jìn)一步的優(yōu)化方向應(yīng)從家庭自由生育向有限制的生育權(quán)方向探索。最后,在人口紅利逐漸消失和全面二孩政策剛實(shí)施的背景下,針對(duì)學(xué)者的疑惑,本文嘗試把對(duì)生育、養(yǎng)老以及其他配套性政策的探討放在一個(gè)框架內(nèi),及時(shí)系統(tǒng)地評(píng)估了全面二孩政策的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng),以及基于評(píng)估結(jié)果優(yōu)化配套性措施和全面二孩政策。在某種程度上,本文的研究可能會(huì)為學(xué)者在上述問(wèn)題上解答疑惑,也可能會(huì)為決策者在后續(xù)生育和配套制度安排上提供參考。最終通過(guò)生育和配套性政策的實(shí)施,解決人口結(jié)構(gòu)失衡引發(fā)的各種社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題,促進(jìn)人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)以及社會(huì)的均衡和可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:All kinds of social and economic problems to deal with the unbalance of population structure, by the end of 2015 the implementation of the China characterization of relaxed control comprehensive fertility two child policy. But the effect of this policy, there are still many scholars doubt, such as birth control will relax and improve output, assist China smoothly hundred years will improve the working population? Welfare, implement the policy of family power; will not change the pension mode in the future to radically improve future social pension status; comprehensive two child policy if there is insufficient? If there is, what kind of supporting policy should choose to avoid. If you still can't avoid, after the two child policy, what family should arrange policy, and so on. To solve these problems, mainly using the method of multi stage decision research findings: first, relax control can not change the future output growth rate of cliff The downward trend; in output and per capita output, there is a slight short-term crowding out effect, long-term existence of larger lifting effect. If the people in accordance with the family planning policy and the lack of supporting policies, relax control will slightly reduce the labor growth short-term population welfare; improved long-term future workforce or the current children's future welfare. This means that in the family the accumulation of power after the release, the public may not effectively respond to a comprehensive two child policy, through long-term fertility policy objectives may not be able to achieve the implementation. Although the choice of pension model did not change the future optimal control to relax fertility fundamentally, short-term and slightly decreased the level of support for the elderly generation, can not effectively deal with pension flood, but in the current intergenerational support mode, improve the long-term future of elderly population or the current workforce future pension. This means raising The old system should be accumulated or determine the direction of transfer payment; in order to improve the future of social endowment situation, we should actively implement the comprehensive two child policy to deal with short-term pension flood, should focus on other policy adjustments and improve the productivity of old-age fertility control. Comprehensive relaxation in output, short and long term effects, and welfare pension for society, in accordance with the policy, a slight short-term harmful, but long-term favorable, whole outweigh the disadvantages. Secondly, in order to avoid short-term growth in output to relax control, negative welfare and intergenerational support level influence. According to the simulation, in the implementation of a comprehensive two child policy process, supporting the implementation of delay retirement such measures can improve social output, make up for the cost of fertility, in theory, can avoid the negative influence of birth control to relax. Considering the implementation of supporting measures of the degree of difficulty and lag, the future of the city The change of the reproductive behavior of the families in town, external comprehensive two child policy more and more can not solve the fertility behavior of post industrialization era, unable to release the social welfare and security policy of family power. Arrangement from the angle of childbearing right, constructing a double objective decision-making model, to explore the possible future choice of fertility policy. The results show that after all the two child policy, Chinese is likely to choose family free family planning policy. Although family reproductive freedom can protect the welfare of the family, but with the social transition to Malthus from the trap of low fertility trap, family reproductive freedom is still not solve the birth of externality and social welfare and security, so the fertility policy further optimization from the direction of family reproductive freedom to explore family the right direction is limited. Finally, gradually disappeared in the demographic dividend and the comprehensive implementation of the two child policy just under the background, in view of the suspect Or, this paper attempts to study on fertility, pension and other supporting policies in a timely assessment system within the framework of the overall social and economic effect of the two child policy, and the evaluation results of optimization of supporting measures and policies based on the full two children. To some extent, this study may for scholars to answer on the issue of doubt, may also provide a reference for decision makers in the subsequent growth and supporting institutional arrangements. Finally through the implementation of fertility and supporting policy, to solve the unbalanced population structure caused by a variety of social and economic problems, promote population, economy and society in a balanced and sustainable development.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：C924.21

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