發(fā)布時間：2018-01-22 09:53

  本文關鍵詞： 大數(shù)據(jù) 網絡輿情 研判模型 應對策略　出處：《東南大學》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：隨著各種智能移動終端設備的普及以及各種即時通訊軟件和平臺的發(fā)展,我國互聯(lián)網進入Web2.0時代�；ヂ�(lián)網改變了傳統(tǒng)的輿情表現(xiàn)方式,把網絡輿情推到了反映民眾情緒和行為傾向的前臺。網絡平臺以開放的空間形態(tài),成為個體和社會組織參政議政、表達態(tài)度、發(fā)表言論的公共平臺,成為快速傳遞信息和傳達民意的通道,成為各種社會思潮交鋒、各種利益訴求集散和多種意識形態(tài)較量的陣地,網絡輿情研判和應對成為當今網絡社會一項新的重要任務。當前網絡輿情研究,面臨的主要問題是信息冗余和信息傳播方式革命性變化所帶來的夾雜大量噪音的海量數(shù)據(jù)的處理,導致了基于傳統(tǒng)的數(shù)據(jù)挖掘技術無法適應新的要求,而且缺乏對不同網絡輿情的細分,缺乏針對不同特質的網絡輿情建立不同的分析模型進行分析,目前市場上的網絡輿情分析軟件以同一模型籠統(tǒng)應對不同特征的網絡輿情,存在較大局限性。本文以大數(shù)據(jù)環(huán)境為背景,在對國內外相關研究現(xiàn)狀進行歸納分析的基礎上,主要針對網絡謠言、高校學生網絡輿情和突發(fā)公共衛(wèi)生事件等三類典型的網絡輿情,采用定性分析和定量分析相結合的方法,圍繞網絡輿情的傳播機制、預警決策機制和演化機理開展一系列的研究。在基于模型分析的基礎上,提出針對不同類型網絡輿情的管理和應對策略。首先,基于傳染病動力學理論,文中構建了具有飽和接觸率的網絡謠言傳播研判模型和非線性接觸率網絡謠言傳播研判模型,利用動力系統(tǒng)平衡點理論與穩(wěn)定性理論,對網絡謠言進行了定量分析。研究結果表明,在網絡謠言傳播中存在一個閾值R0,當R01時,系統(tǒng)將存在內部非零平衡點,即如任由謠言發(fā)展,會在系統(tǒng)中大面積爆發(fā)開來;當網民群體人數(shù)服從Logistic曲線時,新增加的網民不會對網絡謠言的傳播造成影響;由于閾值對心理作用系數(shù)的變化非常敏感,因此采取措施增大心理作用系數(shù)可以高效管理網絡謠言的擴散;披露不實信息以及不實信息傳播者,其管理效率要遠高于正向宣傳。其次,針對突發(fā)公共衛(wèi)生事件網絡輿情傳播的特點,引入Deffault模型,建立了有向加權動態(tài)網絡結構模型,利用Matlab工具對所建立的網絡輿情觀點演化模型進行仿真分析,驗證了所建立的模型的有效性和合理性,還研究了影響網絡輿情觀點演化傳播的主要因素。結果表明,有向加權動態(tài)BBV網絡是無標度網絡,符合在線社會網絡結構的特性。模型分析還發(fā)現(xiàn),政府的態(tài)度r、媒體的關注程度λ等都能對網絡輿情產生顯著影響。因此,政府及主要公眾媒體利用自身權威性及時披露信息,加強疏導,可以有效消除社會恐慌,穩(wěn)定社會局面。接著,針對高校學生網絡輿情預警級別的評判,構建了基于直覺模糊推理和層次分析法的網絡輿情定性和定量評判模型。關于運用直覺模糊推理判斷網絡輿情預警等級,將話題重要性、公眾反應和公眾與話題聯(lián)系作為直覺模糊推理的參與因素,用直覺模糊綜合評判法計算每個因素的隸屬度,將最貼近的直覺模糊集作為網絡輿情預警等級,運用直覺模糊集理論構建了網絡輿情預警級別判定模型。對于運用層次分析法判定網絡輿情預警等級,利用層次分析法將目標分解為多指標層次,引入專家打分法確定各級指標權重,構造了反映高校網絡輿情傳播深度和廣度的定性與定量相結合的指標體系,在對各級指標具體權重值進行一致性檢驗后,根據(jù)所構建的模型計算網絡輿情研判的指標值S,根據(jù)S值所對應的閾值區(qū)間,確定應啟動的預警級別,進而通過分析其變化的基本特征,掌握其發(fā)展態(tài)勢,揭示出問題的本質所在,預測出輿情的進一步走向,可以幫助決策者做出正確決策,對輿論進行引導和控制。實證研究表明,以網絡數(shù)據(jù)的收集整理和專家決策人員的理性判斷為切入點,通過定量和定性相結合,可以及時準確地判斷輿情級別,為及早啟動預警流程和進行引導干預,有效控制輿情發(fā)展態(tài)勢提供支持。本文最后還進行了案例分析。選取天津濱海新區(qū)爆炸事件、湖南大學研究生違規(guī)轉學事件作為典型案例,以本文中的理論研究為基礎,研究了網絡謠言的傳播機制、網絡輿情的預警機制和網絡輿情意見的演化過程,分別采集謠言和公共衛(wèi)生影響的關鍵詞,對事件進行描述,將特征數(shù)據(jù)代入模型進行求解,并對結果進行分析。研究結果表明,不同類型的網絡事件具有較為明顯的內在規(guī)律和特點,本文所建立網絡輿情研判模型是有效的。
[Abstract]:With a variety of intelligent mobile terminal equipment and a variety of popular instant messaging software platform and the development of China's Internet into the Web2.0 era. The Internet has changed the traditional public opinion expression, network public opinion to reflect public sentiment and behavior tendency of the front desk. The network platform to open space, become the individual and social organization participation besides, the expression of attitude, the public platform of speech, become the rapid transmission of information and communication channels of public opinion, as against a variety of social thought, various interests distribution and various ideological battle positions, network public opinion judged and respond to today's social network become a new important task. The current network public opinion research, is the main problem facing with a lot of noise processing of massive data of information redundancy and information dissemination way brings revolutionary change, based on the traditional lead The data mining technology can not adapt to the new requirements, and the lack of network public opinion segmentation, lack of public opinion against the network of different characteristics of different models of analysis, the current network of public opinion on the market analysis of network public opinion in the same general software model with different characteristics, there is a big limitation. Based on the background of large data environment, the foundation of analysis on the related research at home and abroad, mainly for Internet rumors, the college students network public opinion and public health emergencies and other three kinds of typical network public opinion, using the method of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, on the transmission mechanism of network public opinion, to carry out a series of studies on the early warning decision the mechanism and evolution mechanism. Based on the model analysis, proposed management and coping strategies of different types of network public opinion. Firstly, based on the Epidemic dynamics theory, this paper constructs a network spread rumors saturated contact rate evaluation model and nonlinear contact rate of network rumor judged by dynamic system model, equilibrium theory and stability theory, the network rumors are quantitatively analyzed. The results show that there is a threshold of R0 in the network spread rumors, when R01 when the system will exist within the nonzero equilibrium points, such as let the rumor in the system development, will the outbreak of a large area of it; when users group number obeys the Logistic curve, the impact of the increase in the spread of new users will not be on the network rumors; because the threshold is very sensitive to changes on the psychological factor, so take measures to increase the psychological effect of diffusion coefficient can be the efficient management of network rumor; the disclosure of false information and false information spread, the management efficiency is much higher than that of the positive publicity. Secondly, according to the The characteristics of public health emergency network public opinion dissemination, the introduction of the Deffault model, based on weighted dynamic network structure model, on the view of network public opinion evolution model is analyzed and simulated by using Matlab tools, the results prove that the model is effective and reasonable, also studied the main factors affecting the evolution of the network public opinion dissemination view. The results show that the directed weighted dynamic BBV network is a scale-free network, with the characteristics of online social network structure model. The analysis found that the attitude of the government of R, the media attention degree lambda can have a significant impact on the Internet public opinion. Therefore, the government and public media using its own authority timely disclosure of information and strengthen counseling, can effectively eliminate social panic, stable social situation. Then, according to the university student network public opinion warning level evaluation, construct intuitionistic fuzzy reasoning based on The network public opinion qualitative and quantitative evaluation model analysis method and hierarchy. On the application of intuitionistic fuzzy reasoning to judge the warning level of the network of public opinion, the topic significance, the reaction of the public and public topics and links as intuitionistic fuzzy reasoning participation factor, membership in intuitionistic fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to calculate each factor, will be the most close to the intuitionistic fuzzy sets as the warning level of network public opinion, fuzzy set theory to construct the warning level network public opinion judgment model for use of intuition. Determined by using AHP and warning level network public opinion, using AHP method to decompose the goal for the multi index level, introducing expert scoring method to determine the weights at all levels, construct the index system to reflect the qualitative and quantitative analysis of university network public opinion dissemination the depth and breadth of the combination, in the specific weight of all index value of the consistency test, according to the construction of Calculation model of network public opinion judged the index value of S, according to the S value corresponding to the threshold interval should be determined to start early warning level, and then through the analysis of the basic characteristics of the changes in the grasp of its development trend, reveal the essence of the problems and predict further towards the public opinion, can help decision-makers to make correct decisions on public opinion to guide and control. The empirical study shows that in a rational judgment of network data collection and expert decision makers as the starting point, through a combination of quantitative and qualitative, can timely and accurately determine the level of public opinion, to start early warning process and guide intervention, effective control of support the development trend of public opinion. In the end of case analysis. Taking Tianjin Binhai New Area bombing, graduate students of Hunan University as a typical case of illegal transfer events, based on theoretical research in this paper is based on The network rumor spreading mechanism, the evolution process of the early warning mechanism of network public opinion and network public opinion, keyword rumors and public health impact were collected. The description of the event, will feature data into the model, and the results were analyzed. The results show that different types of network events have the intrinsic rules and characteristics obviously, this network of public opinion judged model is effective.

【學位授予單位】：東南大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：D669;C912.63
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本文編號：1454352