本文關(guān)鍵詞：人力資本與省際經(jīng)濟(jì)收斂性研究　出處：《湖南大學(xué)》2013年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：中國經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)歷了長達(dá)三十余年的快速增長，GDP以年均9%以上的速度攀升。然而與此同時(shí)，地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡也在不斷加劇。新古典經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論所預(yù)期的落后地區(qū)向發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)不斷靠近的經(jīng)濟(jì)趨同并未在中國出現(xiàn)。與之相反，各省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展甚至呈現(xiàn)發(fā)散之勢。近期研究一致認(rèn)為，人力資本對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展起著重要的作用，是推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)長期增長的重要源泉，而且能夠有效的減少貧困和控制地區(qū)發(fā)展失衡。但是對(duì)于人力資本在地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)趨同過程中的作用機(jī)制，以往研究并沒有進(jìn)行深入探討。有鑒于此，本文在前人研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，采用多種計(jì)量分析方法，從理論和實(shí)證兩個(gè)角度系統(tǒng)全面的考察了人力資本與我國的省際經(jīng)濟(jì)收斂問題，并據(jù)此提出縮減地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)差異，推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)均衡發(fā)展的政策建議。 本文采用1990-2009期間省級(jí)面板數(shù)據(jù)研究我國的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)差異問題，并重點(diǎn)探討人力資本與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長及趨同的關(guān)系。數(shù)據(jù)顯示，我國省份和地區(qū)之間無論在人均GDP還是人力資本方面都存在顯著差距，表現(xiàn)為沿海地區(qū)遙遙領(lǐng)先于中西部地區(qū)，發(fā)達(dá)省份遠(yuǎn)超落后省份。但是各省的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率差異正在逐步縮小，意味著我國地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)存在收斂的潛力。如何將潛力轉(zhuǎn)化為現(xiàn)實(shí)是本文旨在解決的問題。 本文首先采用經(jīng)典的經(jīng)濟(jì)收斂參數(shù)模型，在資本邊際報(bào)酬遞減的假設(shè)下研究我國省際經(jīng)濟(jì)的收斂性，并探討人力資本與地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和收斂的關(guān)系。在此基礎(chǔ)上，本文逐步放松傳統(tǒng)模型的前提假設(shè)，通過構(gòu)建多種模型檢驗(yàn)前文結(jié)論的穩(wěn)健性。首先，本文的分組回歸結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)了我國省際經(jīng)濟(jì)收斂的非線性特征。針對(duì)人力資本對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)收斂的非線性作用途徑，本文分別采用簡單的門檻效應(yīng)模型和Hansen人力資本門檻效應(yīng)模型展開研究，判別門檻數(shù)量，估算人力資本門檻值，并考察門檻前后人力資本的差異影響�？紤]到參數(shù)模型可能存在的設(shè)定問題，本文徹底放松了模型函數(shù)形式的固定假設(shè)，從數(shù)據(jù)出發(fā)，采用先進(jìn)的非參數(shù)方法研究我國的省際經(jīng)濟(jì)收斂現(xiàn)狀。在此基礎(chǔ)上，本文進(jìn)一步構(gòu)建了半?yún)?shù)模型以規(guī)避多維非參數(shù)回歸中存在的維度危機(jī)問題，并重點(diǎn)考察人力資本與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的非線性關(guān)系。 本文采用了多種人力資本度量指標(biāo)，除常見的教育類指標(biāo)外，還通過將微觀調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)和省級(jí)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)相結(jié)合的方法，改進(jìn)了國際上通用的Jorgenson-Fraumeni終生收入法，形成了涵蓋教育、健康、遷移等因素的更為全面的省級(jí)人力資本存量估算方法。與此同時(shí)，本文運(yùn)用了固定效應(yīng)和工具變量等模型估計(jì)方法，回歸結(jié)果顯示出相當(dāng)?shù)姆�(wěn)健性。 根據(jù)模型結(jié)果，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)：第一，我國省際經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)為條件收斂而非絕對(duì)收斂，同時(shí)沿海地區(qū)、中部地區(qū)、中西部地區(qū)存在俱樂部收斂，而西部地區(qū)自身不存在俱樂部收斂。儲(chǔ)蓄率、人口增長率和人力資本等因素共同決定省級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)的走向。其中，省級(jí)儲(chǔ)蓄率和人口增長的相對(duì)變化正朝著有利于地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)趨同的方向發(fā)展，，而人力資本則是造成目前地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)差異不斷擴(kuò)大的重要原因。落后地區(qū)較低的初期收入所產(chǎn)生的后發(fā)優(yōu)勢幾乎可以完全被人力資本的相對(duì)落后所抵消；第二，人力資本對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響具有非線性特征，是決定我國地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)能否收斂的主要因素。人力資本對(duì)中西部地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的推動(dòng)程度均大于沿海地區(qū)，并且就全國經(jīng)濟(jì)而言，這一正向推動(dòng)作用在1990-1999年間更為明顯。半?yún)?shù)固定效應(yīng)模型顯示，平均受教育年限始終正向推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，但在不同階段的邊際影響不同。與此同時(shí)，人均勞動(dòng)力人力資本對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響呈現(xiàn)出先促進(jìn)后不變而后再次促進(jìn)的類階梯型變動(dòng)。整體而言，人力資本對(duì)地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)趨同的影響表現(xiàn)為雙刃劍，即當(dāng)前地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)差異擴(kuò)大的重要原因是人力資本，而要實(shí)現(xiàn)地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)趨同也需要依靠人力資本。 綜合理論分析和實(shí)證研究結(jié)果，本文提出以下縮小地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)差異的政策建議：（1）轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展觀念，堅(jiān)持以人力資本為導(dǎo)向的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略；（2）從比較優(yōu)勢出發(fā)，鼓勵(lì)和幫助中西部地區(qū)加大人力資本投資力度；（3）構(gòu)建完善的人力資本制度體系，提高人力資本培養(yǎng)質(zhì)量和利用效率。
[Abstract]:China economy has experienced rapid growth for more than thirty years, more than 9% of the average annual rate of GDP rise. But at the same time, regional economic imbalances are growing. The economic convergence in backward areas expected the neoclassical economic growth theory gets closer to the developed region is not in Chinese. On the contrary, the economic development and even divergence potential. Recent studies agree that human capital plays an important role in economic development, is an important source to promote long-term economic growth, but also can effectively reduce the imbalance of regional development and poverty control. But for the mechanism of human capital in the process of regional economic convergence in the previous research, and is not in depth. In view of this. In this paper, on the basis of previous research results, using a variety of methods of quantitative analysis, from two aspects of theory and empirical system comprehensive study of the people Force capital and China's inter provincial economic convergence problem, and accordingly put forward policy proposals to reduce regional economic differences and promote the balanced development of the economy.
In this paper, the problem of regional economic differences on China's provincial panel data during 1990-2009, and discusses the relationship between human capital and regional economic growth and convergence. The data show that between China's provinces and regions in terms of per capita GDP and human capital have a significant gap between coastal areas is way ahead in the Midwest, the developed provinces far super backward province. But the economic growth rate difference is gradually narrowing, means that China's regional economic convergence potential. How will the potential into reality is the purpose of this paper is to solve the problem.
Firstly, the parameters of the classical model of economic convergence, convergence of regional economic in our country under the assumption of diminishing marginal returns of capital, and to explore the relationship between economic growth and human capital and regional convergence. On this basis, the gradual relaxation of the traditional model of the premise hypothesis, by constructing multiple model to test the above conclusion is robust. First of all, this paper found the grouping regression nonlinear characteristics of provincial economic convergence in China. According to the way the nonlinear effects of human capital on economic convergence, this paper uses Hansen model and the threshold effect of human capital threshold effect of the simple model of discriminant threshold number, estimating human capital threshold, and the effects of threshold before and after the difference of human capital the effect of considering possible parameter setting problems, this paper thoroughly relaxed the assumption of constant model form, From the data of the provincial economic convergence research status in China using non parametric advanced methods. On this basis, the paper builds the semi parametric model to circumvent the problems of multidimensional non parametric regression in the dimension of the crisis, and focuses on the nonlinear relationship between human capital and economic growth.
This paper uses a variety of human capital metrics, in addition to the common education index, through the method combined with micro survey data and provincial macroeconomic data, improve the general international Jorgenson-Fraumeni lifetime income method, forming a covering education, health, migration and other factors more comprehensive estimation of provincial human capital stock. At the same time, this paper uses the fixed effect estimation method and instrumental variable regression model. The results show considerable robustness.
According to the results of the model, we found that: first, the provincial economy in China shows a conditional convergence rather than absolute convergence, and the coastal region, central region, club convergence exists in the central and western regions, while the western region does not have the club convergence. The savings rate, the rate of population growth and human capital and other factors to the provincial economy. Among them, the relative change of provincial saving rate and population growth is conducive to regional economic convergence in the direction of development, and human capital is an important cause of the current regional economic disparity expands unceasingly. The backward areas of low initial income generated by the advantage of almost entirely by the human capital is relatively backward offset by second; the human capital has the characteristics of nonlinear, impact on economic growth, is a major factor in determining China's regional economic convergence. The human capital of the western area To promote the economic development degree is greater than the coastal areas, and the national economy, the positive role in the period of 1990-1999 is more obvious. According to the semi parametric fixed effects model, the average years of schooling is always positive to promote economic growth, but the marginal effect is different at different stages. At the same time, the per capita labor force of human capital on economic growth show the ladder type and then promote the constant changes to promote again. Overall, the influence of human capital on regional economic convergence is a double-edged sword, that is the expansion of regional economic disparities is an important reason of human capital, and to achieve regional economic convergence is also need to rely on human capital.
According to the results of theoretical analysis and empirical research, put forward the following policy recommendations for reducing regional economic disparities in this paper: (1) the transformation of economic development ideas, adhere to the development strategy guided by human capital; (2) from the perspective of comparative advantage, encourage and help increase the investment of human capital in central and western regions; (3) to construct the system of human capital improve the system, improve human capital quality and efficiency.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F249.27

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