本文關(guān)鍵詞：生育沖擊、人口結(jié)構(gòu)與商品房市場　出處：《浙江大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 生育沖擊 人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu) 人口遷移 商品房價格 世代交疊模型

【摘要】：自1998年住房全面市場化改革以來,我國商品房市場在銷售量和銷售價格上均呈現(xiàn)出了大幅上漲的態(tài)勢。這一期間,我國的人口結(jié)構(gòu)正經(jīng)歷著“80后”逐步進(jìn)入婚育期、人口紅利的集中釋放期以及城鎮(zhèn)化的快速增長期,這些來自人口要素的沖擊都將對商品房市場產(chǎn)生較大的影響。根據(jù)1998年后我國商品房市場的表現(xiàn),本研究從生育沖擊和人口結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變的視角來探究人口這一驅(qū)動因素對我國商品房市場的影響。結(jié)合我國的現(xiàn)實背景,本文通過理論分析、規(guī)范分析和實證分析論證了不同代際生育水平、人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)以及人口空間結(jié)構(gòu)如何影響商品房市場。本文主要的研究結(jié)論如下：第一,在財富代際轉(zhuǎn)移的作用下,中年代的人口沖擊及其較低的生育水平是是推動近年來房價上漲的重要影響因素。由于存在財富代際轉(zhuǎn)移的可能,不同代際生育水平的變化將會對房價產(chǎn)生較大的影響。基于此,本研究構(gòu)建了包含不同代際生育水平的世代交疊模型,從理論上分析代際生育水平的變化以及財富代際轉(zhuǎn)移行為如何影響商品房價格。理論分析和實證研究結(jié)果均表明,中年代生育水平越低,轉(zhuǎn)移到每個青年代個體的財富水平越高,這些財富會流入房地產(chǎn)市場并引發(fā)房價的上漲。第二,在人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變的過程中,現(xiàn)階段橄欖型的人口年齡分布恰好是有利于商品房市場發(fā)展的人口結(jié)構(gòu),這是商品房市場的“人口紅利”�；谖⒂^數(shù)據(jù)和宏觀數(shù)據(jù)的研究均表明：在總?cè)丝诤愣ǖ臈l件下,更少的少年人口會引發(fā)商品房銷售量和銷售價格的增長,而受老年人口多樣化住房需求的影響,現(xiàn)階段老年人口的少許增多不但不會抑制商品房市場的繁榮,反而會促進(jìn)商品房銷售量和銷售價格的上漲。第三,人口空間結(jié)構(gòu)中的城鎮(zhèn)化水平和人口遷移均是城市商品房市場的推動因素�；诔鞘袑用嫒丝谄詹閿�(shù)據(jù)和統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)的實證研究結(jié)果表明：城鎮(zhèn)化率以及遷移人口占比會對商品房銷售量和銷售價格產(chǎn)生顯著的正向影響,且商品房價格對人口遷移的彈性更大,能否吸納更多外來人口將是未來城市商品房市場能否持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要籌碼。本文的研究具有較強(qiáng)的理論意義和實踐意義。在理論上,本研究拓寬了人口轉(zhuǎn)變理論的研究視野,并構(gòu)建了包含不同代際生育水平的世代交疊模型。在實踐上,本文的研究一方面有助于理解我國商品房市場在過去一段時間內(nèi)的快速發(fā)展,另一方面有利于把握我國商品房市場未來的發(fā)展脈絡(luò),這對政府、開發(fā)商以及個人購房者都具有一定的參考價值和借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of housing market in 1998, both the sales volume and the selling price of the commercial housing market in our country have shown a trend of substantial increase. The population structure of our country is going through the period of marriage and childbearing, the concentrated release of population dividend and the rapid growth of urbanization. These impacts from population factors will have a greater impact on the commercial housing market. According to the performance of China's commercial housing market after 1998. From the perspective of fertility impact and population structure change, this study explores the impact of population as a driving factor on China's commercial housing market. Combined with the reality of our country, this paper through theoretical analysis. Normative analysis and empirical analysis demonstrate how different intergenerational fertility levels, population age structure and population spatial structure affect the commercial housing market. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first. Under the influence of intergenerational wealth transfer, the population shock and its low fertility level in the middle age are the important factors to promote the rise of house price in recent years. Because of the possibility of intergenerational wealth transfer. Different intergenerational fertility levels will have a greater impact on housing prices. Based on this, this study constructs a generational overlap model with different intergenerational fertility levels. This paper theoretically analyzes the change of intergenerational fertility level and how intergenerational wealth transfer behavior affects the price of commercial housing. The theoretical analysis and empirical research results show that the lower the fertility level in the middle age. The higher the level of wealth transferred to each individual generation of youth, the greater the wealth flows into the real estate market and the rise in house prices. Second, in the process of changing the age structure of the population. At the present stage, the age distribution of the olive type population is just the population structure conducive to the development of the commercial housing market. This is the "demographic dividend" of the commercial housing market. Studies based on microcosmic and macro data show that under the condition of constant population, less juvenile population will lead to the increase of sales volume and selling price of commercial housing. Affected by the diversified housing demand of the elderly population, the current increase of the elderly population will not only not restrain the prosperity of the commercial housing market, but will promote the increase of the sales volume and the sales price of the commercial housing. Third. The urbanization level and population migration in the population spatial structure are the driving factors of the urban commercial housing market. The empirical research results based on the census data and statistical data at the urban level show that:. The rate of urbanization and the proportion of people moving will have a significant positive impact on the sales volume and selling price of commercial housing. And the price of commercial housing is more flexible to the migration of population. Whether we can absorb more foreign population will be an important chip for the sustainable development of urban commercial housing market in the future. The research in this paper has strong theoretical and practical significance. This study broadens the research field of population transition theory and constructs the intergenerational overlapping model which includes different intergenerational fertility levels. On the one hand, the study of this paper is helpful to understand the rapid development of the commercial housing market in China in the past period of time, on the other hand, it is helpful to grasp the future development of the commercial housing market in China, which is of great importance to the government. Developers and individual buyers have a certain reference value and reference significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：C924.2;F299.23

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