本文關鍵詞：后冷戰(zhàn)時期美國東亞海權戰(zhàn)略調整研究　出處：《山東大學》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 后冷戰(zhàn)時期 海權戰(zhàn)略 戰(zhàn)略行為歸因 美國 東亞

【摘要】：海權是指一個國家對海洋的控制力和影響力,在21世紀的大國海洋政治博弈中發(fā)揮著戰(zhàn)略性功能。在后冷戰(zhàn)時期,隨著東亞戰(zhàn)略地位的不斷上升,東亞海權的結構性矛盾日益突出,各國紛紛調整自身的海權戰(zhàn)略。在此背景下,美國持續(xù)強化東亞海權戰(zhàn)略的擴張性調整,加劇了東亞海洋政治的復雜性、敏感性和脆弱性。美國東亞海權戰(zhàn)略的調整呈現(xiàn)出新取向:一是具有主動性,依據(jù)外部環(huán)境變化主動調整;二是具有擴張性,不斷增加東亞的戰(zhàn)略投入;三是具有引領性,竭力保持技術競爭優(yōu)勢;四是具有靈活性,對新興大國采取既制衡又合作的復合型策略;五是具有不確定性,美國國內利益集團對東亞海權戰(zhàn)略的博弈日益復雜難測。美國的戰(zhàn)略調整反映了其對東亞海權的依賴度上升,同時對東亞海權戰(zhàn)略生態(tài)的結構失衡出現(xiàn)了戰(zhàn)略焦慮。筆者主要運用戰(zhàn)略行為歸因分析方法,解釋了后冷戰(zhàn)時期美國東亞海權戰(zhàn)略擴張性調整的動力來源問題。本文認為,美國東亞海權戰(zhàn)略的擴張性調整是其國內外三維動力相互交織、綜合作用的結果,國際權力結構、國家身份需求以及外部不確定性為自變量,以美國東亞海權戰(zhàn)略調整為因變量,建立了戰(zhàn)略行為歸因分析的新框架,并提出了三個研究假設:其一,霸權國的戰(zhàn)略調整是一種基于權力競爭壓力驅動的權力護持行為;其二,霸權國的戰(zhàn)略調整是一種基于身份需求增長驅動的利益圈地行為;其三,霸權國的戰(zhàn)略調整是一種基于不確定性張力驅動的風險投資行為。第一個假設強調霸權國的對外戰(zhàn)略行為是國際權力變遷的結果。國際權力的結構變化是影響霸權國對外戰(zhàn)略的直接動力,霸權國對國際權力結構變動高度敏感,國際權力變化越大,霸權國的戰(zhàn)略壓力也就越大,其調整自身戰(zhàn)略行為的動力也就越強大。在新科技革命、全球化和市場化浪潮的共同作用下,國際權力結構出現(xiàn)變動,全球權力中心從大西洋向太平洋方向轉移,東亞成為世界權力增長最快的地區(qū)。中國和平崛起使東亞形成了經(jīng)濟與安全中心相脫離的雙中心治理結構,中美兩國的國際公共產品供給競爭日趨加劇,對東亞經(jīng)濟整合與安全結構具有形塑作用。在海洋政治復雜性和碎片化的影響下,東亞各國致力于加快海軍現(xiàn)代化進程,西太平洋海權戰(zhàn)略生態(tài)系統(tǒng)發(fā)生結構性變化,區(qū)域海權關系出現(xiàn)重構。在權力轉移時期,權力結構的變遷對美國東亞的海洋霸權構成了巨大的壓力,成為美國東亞海權戰(zhàn)略調整的外驅動力。第二個假設強調霸權國的身份對其戰(zhàn)略行為具有塑造性。身份屬性影響著國家戰(zhàn)略利益的邊界劃定,霸權身份需求是影響霸權國戰(zhàn)略的內在動力,對霸權國戰(zhàn)略行為發(fā)揮激勵功能。當國家產生身份依賴時,霸權國的身份需求越強烈,戰(zhàn)略調整的內在動力也就越強大。美國是全球海洋主導國,這種角色身份是其自身地理、歷史、理論、經(jīng)濟以及軍事等多種條件因素長期共同塑造的。冷戰(zhàn)后美國的身份需求集中在權力需求、榮譽和威望需求、經(jīng)濟需求、安全需求以及意識形態(tài)需求等五個方面,并保持不斷增長。身份需求的增長推動了美國東亞海權戰(zhàn)略的擴張性調整,其戰(zhàn)略意圖是在軍事上確保制海權優(yōu)勢,控制東亞的海洋戰(zhàn)略通道;經(jīng)濟上加速與東亞經(jīng)濟體互動,利用東亞經(jīng)濟增長,為美國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展提供動力;政治上強化與東亞盟國、伙伴國的聯(lián)系,構建以美國為核心的支點網(wǎng)絡,制衡新興大國崛起,壟斷海洋主導國地位,確保美國在東亞的海洋利益安全,其本質是繼續(xù)利用有效海權,維護其全球海洋主導國的海洋霸權,實現(xiàn)自身身份需求的最大化。第三個假設強調外部不確定性對霸權國戰(zhàn)略行為的影響。不確定性是影響霸權國戰(zhàn)略行為的干擾性因素,具有雙重性:一方面它是風險,可以產生巨大的安全張力,不確定性因素越多,霸權國面臨的安全張力也就越大,其戰(zhàn)略行為調整的動力也就越強大;另一方面它也具有戰(zhàn)略投資價值,可以產生風險投資回報,高風險高收益,因而外部不確定性對戰(zhàn)略調整發(fā)揮一種調控功能。東亞海域長期存在不確定性,具體表現(xiàn)在各國海軍力量競賽、海洋資源分配、海洋領土爭端、海洋劃界分歧以及非傳統(tǒng)安全威脅上升等,是美國調整其東亞海權戰(zhàn)略的干預力量。從風險角度上講,不確定性因素極易成為東亞海洋沖突的潛在誘因,美國將面臨被盟國綁架卷入東亞海洋沖突的可能。從投資價值來看,不確定性也是美國的一種戰(zhàn)略杠桿,是美國要挾部分東亞國家的工具。美國利用東亞廣泛存在的海洋不確定性,達到強化其在西太平洋的前沿存在,進而撬動東亞海權戰(zhàn)略生態(tài)格局的戰(zhàn)略目的。不確定性越多,美國獲得合法性存在的理由也就越多;當不確定性減少時,美國會主觀故意放大不確定性,借機炒作東亞海洋矛盾,以攪亂東亞海洋秩序,可以達到"火中取栗",增加風險投資回報的目的。美國東亞海權戰(zhàn)略的擴張性調整既反映了美國借助海權維護海洋主導國家地位的戰(zhàn)略意圖,同時也反映出美國對新興大國的海權崛起感到戰(zhàn)略焦慮。對此,美國東亞海權戰(zhàn)略的調整存在著雙重意涵,一方面強調以實力制衡,另一方面也保持接觸與合作。為繼續(xù)保持東亞海權的競爭優(yōu)勢,美國東亞海權戰(zhàn)略調整的矛頭指向新興大國,同時不斷優(yōu)化海權資源配置,提升海權能力水平,強化外交策略支持,持續(xù)深度介入東亞海洋爭端,意圖干預東亞海洋政治,扮演東亞的離岸平衡手角色,目的是維持全球海洋主導國身份,追求美國在東亞海洋事務的話語權,保障自身的東亞海洋利益。中國崛起是21世紀世界政治的最重大變化,但也對自身帶來了雙重壓力,其一是維護自身海外利益的壓力增大,其二是維護海洋安全秩序的國際責任壓力也在增大。面對美國的東亞海權的戰(zhàn)略調整,作為負責任的全球新興大國,中國應該努力保持戰(zhàn)略定力,靈活運用戰(zhàn)略智慧,堅守和平發(fā)展理念,堅持奮發(fā)有為原則,積極發(fā)展強大海權,加快推進海洋強國戰(zhàn)略實施,加速海軍現(xiàn)代化建設,堅定維護國家海洋權益,構建更加平衡的新型大國海權關系,重構東亞海洋秩序,為東亞國家提供優(yōu)質的國際公共產品。
[Abstract]:Sea power refers to a state control of the sea and influence, plays a strategic function in large marine political game in twenty-first Century. In the post Cold War period, with the strategic position of East Asia's rising Asian sea power structural contradictions have become increasingly prominent, countries have to adjust their strategy of sea power. Under this background. The United States continued to strengthen the expansion of adjustment of East Asian sea power strategy, exacerbated by the complexity of ocean politics in East Asia, sensitivity and vulnerability. The right to adjust the strategy of the United States in East Asia sea presents new trends: one is initiative, according to changes in the external environment of active adjustment; two is expansionary, increasing investment in East Asia; three is a leading technology, strive to maintain a competitive advantage; four is the flexibility of emerging powers to take composite strategy both balance and cooperation; five is uncertain, the domestic interest group The game of East Asian sea power strategy is increasingly complex and unpredictable. The strategic adjustment in the United States reflects its dependence on East Asian sea power degree rise, while the structure imbalance of East Asian sea power strategy of ecological strategy appeared anxiety. The author mainly uses strategic behavior attribution analysis method, explains the problem of adjusting the power source expansion strategy of American East Asian sea power after the cold war. This paper argues that the expansion of the strategic adjustment of American East Asian sea power is the domestic and foreign three-dimensional dynamic intertwined, the comprehensive effect of the international power structure, national identity and external demand uncertainty as independent variables and the dependent variable to adjust the American East Asian sea power strategy, the new framework to establish a strategic behavior the attribution analysis, and puts forward three hypotheses: first, the strategic adjustment of hegemony is a protection of power power competition based on driving behavior; second, hegemony in the war A little adjustment is a kind of interest act to protect identity based driving demand growth; thirdly, strategic adjustment of hegemony is a kind of risk investment behavior driven uncertainty based on tension. The first hypothesis emphasizes the foreign strategic behavior of hegemony is the result of power. The change of the international structure change of international power is the impact of foreign direct power hegemony the strategy of hegemony, is highly sensitive to changes in the international power structure, the greater the change of international power, strategic pressure hegemony is also bigger, the power to adjust its own strategic behavior is more powerful. In the new technology revolution, the interaction of globalization and the market tide, the international power structure changes, global the center of power transfer from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean, East Asia has become the world's fastest-growing power area. Chinese formed a peaceful rise of the East Asia economic and security center from the double The center of governance structure, the supply of public goods in China and the United States international competition aggravating, shaping effect on East Asian economic integration and security. In the structure has the effect of ocean political complexity and fragmentation, the East Asian countries are committed to accelerating the naval modernization process, structural changes in the Western Pacific sea power strategy ecological system, regional sea power relations reconstruction the transfer of power. In the period, changes of power structure of American maritime hegemony in East Asia poses great pressure, as the adjustment of America's East Asia strategy of sea power of the external driving force. The second hypothesis emphasizes the status of hegemony has shaped on its strategic behavior. Identity affects the demarcation of national strategic interests, the hegemony of identity demand is affecting internal power hegemony strategy, an incentive function of hegemony strategy behavior. When the national identity depends on the status of hegemony, Demand is strong, intrinsic motivation of strategic adjustment is also more powerful. The United States is the world's leading marine country, this kind of role identity is its own geography, history, theory, economy and military and other factors together for a long time. Shaping the United States after the cold war as demand concentrated in power demand, honor and prestige demand, economic demand five, safety requirements and ideological needs, and keep growing. Identity demand growth promotes the expansion of strategic adjustment of American East Asian sea power, its strategic intent is to ensure that the advantages in the military, marine strategic channel control in East Asia; economic and East Asian economies interaction, with economic growth in East Asia. Provide the impetus for the economic development of the United States; strengthening political and East Asian allies, partners, support network construction with the United States as the core, balance the big emerging countries rise, the monopoly of marine The leading country status, to ensure that the United States in East Asia's maritime interests security, its essence is to effectively use sea power to maintain its global ocean leading country marine hegemony, to maximize their own identity needs. The third hypothesis emphasizes the influence of external uncertainty on the hegemony of strategic behavior. Uncertainty is the interference factors affecting hegemony strategic behavior, has a dual nature: on the one hand, it can produce huge security risk, tension, more uncertain factors, safety hegemony face tension is bigger, its dynamic adjustment of the strategic behavior is strong; on the other hand it also has strategic investment value, can produce the risk investment return. High risk and high return, so the external uncertainty play a regulatory function of strategic adjustment. The East Asian Seas long-term uncertainty, specifically in the naval power race, marine resources With the sea, territorial disputes, maritime delimitation disputes and non-traditional security threats are rising, is the United States to adjust its strategy in East Asia sea right intervention force. From the risk perspective, uncertainty factors are likely to become a potential cause of the East Asian Seas of the conflict, the United States will be involved in the kidnapping of allies in East Asian Seas conflict from the investment. The value point of view, the uncertainty of a strategic lever is the United States, the United States is threatening some of the tools of East Asian countries. The United States used in East Asia widespread marine uncertainty, to strengthen the frontier in the Western Pacific, and then move the strategic objective of East Asian sea power strategy ecological pattern. The more uncertain, the United States to obtain legitimacy the reason is also the more; when the uncertainty is reduced, the United States will enlarge the subjective uncertainty, took the opportunity to hype the East Asian Seas contradictions, to disrupt the East Asian maritime order, can be reached To gain profit in risk ", increase the risk of investment returns. The expansion of strategic adjustment of American East Asian sea power not only reflects the intentions of the United States by sea right to maintain marine leading status of country strategy, but also reflects the emerging powers of sea power on the rise feel anxiety. The strategy, strategy of the United States the right to adjust the existence of East Asian Seas a double meaning, on the one hand to power balance, on the other hand, maintain contact and cooperation. In order to maintain the competitive advantage of East Asian sea power, adjust the American East Asian sea power strategy aimed at emerging powers, and the continuous optimization of sea power in the allocation of resources, enhance the ability of sea power level, support to strengthen diplomatic strategy, continuous depth in the East Asian maritime disputes, the intention of the East Asian Seas political intervention, play the role of East Asia offshore balancer, the objective is to maintain the global ocean leading status, the pursuit of the United States in East Asia maritime affairs words Right, to protect their own interests. The rise of the East Asian Seas Chinese is the most significant change of world politics in twenty-first Century, but also brought pressure on their own, one is to safeguard their own interests overseas pressure increases, the maintenance of international maritime security responsibility pressure order is also increasing. The strategic adjustment in the face of the American East Asian sea power and as a responsible global emerging powers, Chinese should strive to maintain a strategic concentration, flexible strategic wisdom, adhere to the concept of peaceful development, adhere to the principle of the positive development of the sea be enthusiastic and press on, strong power, to accelerate the implementation of marine power strategy, accelerate naval modernization, firmly safeguard national marine rights and interests, the construction of new sea power more balanced relationship the reconstruction of the East Asian Seas, in order to provide international public goods quality for East Asian countries.

【學位授予單位】：山東大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：D871.2

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