本文選題：一帶一路　切入點(diǎn)：政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)　出處：《西北大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略全面實(shí)施以來,得到了國(guó)際社會(huì)的密切關(guān)注,沿線國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化進(jìn)程不斷加快,對(duì)“一帶一路”沿線國(guó)家的投資優(yōu)化成為中國(guó)對(duì)外合作健康有序發(fā)展的亮點(diǎn)。然而,“一帶一路”沿線國(guó)家中52個(gè)為發(fā)展中國(guó)家或轉(zhuǎn)型經(jīng)濟(jì)體,國(guó)內(nèi)政局穩(wěn)定性較差,缺乏持續(xù)穩(wěn)定的投資政策,存在較高的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn),對(duì)中國(guó)企業(yè)在開展投資合作埋下隱患。因此,對(duì)“一帶一路”沿線國(guó)家政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)中國(guó)對(duì)沿線國(guó)家直接投資的影響顯得尤為重要。本文在厘清經(jīng)典投資理論發(fā)展脈絡(luò)以后,選取了合適的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)界定和評(píng)估方法,梳理了中國(guó)企業(yè)在“一帶一路”沿線國(guó)家對(duì)外直接投資(OFDI)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,深度分析了中國(guó)企業(yè)在沿線國(guó)家不同區(qū)域的直接投資活動(dòng)面臨的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。基于已有學(xué)者的研究基礎(chǔ)上,從技術(shù)外部性視角,建立兩國(guó)增長(zhǎng)模型,借用兩國(guó)生產(chǎn)函數(shù)和消費(fèi)者效用函數(shù)探討東道國(guó)政府決策、東道國(guó)消費(fèi)者福利及外資企業(yè)投資決策三者的動(dòng)態(tài)均衡條件,合理搭建了政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)直接投資影響的理論分析框架。在實(shí)證分析部分,添加了“東道國(guó)市場(chǎng)規(guī)�！薄ⅰ皷|道國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)的貿(mào)易開放度”作為控制變量,研究了政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)中國(guó)企業(yè)在“一帶一路”沿線國(guó)家直接投資重要性的影響,并分別檢驗(yàn)了政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)總指數(shù)下的12個(gè)分指標(biāo)對(duì)中國(guó)企業(yè)在“一帶一路”沿線國(guó)家直接投資重要性的影響。實(shí)證結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),中國(guó)在“一帶一路”沿線國(guó)家的直接投資更偏向政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性較高的國(guó)家。組成政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)總指數(shù)的12個(gè)分指標(biāo)中,“社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)條件”、“與投資相關(guān)的條件”、“法律法規(guī)和秩序”、“種族關(guān)系緊張程度”、“行政能力”這5個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)對(duì)中國(guó)在“一帶一路”沿線國(guó)家直接投資重要性有著顯著影響。如果擴(kuò)展到10%的顯著性水平,那么指標(biāo)“腐敗”、“宗教的政治影響力”兩者對(duì)中國(guó)在“一帶一路”沿線國(guó)家直接投資重要性的影響也很顯著。結(jié)合理論和實(shí)證研究發(fā)現(xiàn),本文對(duì)我國(guó)企業(yè)在“一帶一路”沿線直接投資提出了政策性建議。
[Abstract]:Since the full implementation of the "Belt and Road" strategy, the international community has paid close attention to it, and the economic integration process of the countries along the route has been continuously accelerated. The optimization of investment in countries along "Belt and Road" has become a bright spot for the healthy and orderly development of China's foreign cooperation. However, 52 of the countries along the "Belt and Road" route are developing countries or economies in transition, and domestic political stability is poor. Lack of sustained and stable investment policies, high political risks, and hidden dangers for Chinese enterprises in carrying out investment cooperation. The influence of political risks on China's direct investment in countries along Belt and Road is particularly important. After clarifying the development of classical investment theory, this paper selects appropriate methods to define and evaluate political risks. This paper combs the current situation of the development of Chinese enterprises' foreign direct investment (OFDI) in the countries along "Belt and Road", and analyzes in depth the political risks that Chinese enterprises face in their direct investment activities in different regions of the countries along the route. From the perspective of technology externality, the growth model of two countries is established, and the dynamic equilibrium conditions of host government decision, consumer welfare and investment decision of foreign enterprises are discussed by using the production function and consumer utility function of the two countries. In the part of empirical analysis, we add "host country market size" and "host country's trade openness to China" as control variable. This paper studies the influence of political risk on the importance of Chinese enterprises' direct investment in the countries along "Belt and Road". The influence of 12 sub-indexes under the total political risk index on the importance of Chinese enterprises' direct investment in the countries along "Belt and Road" is tested. China's direct investment in countries along the route of "Belt and Road" is more biased towards countries with higher political risks. Of the 12 sub-indicators that make up the overall political risk index, "socio-economic conditions", "investment-related conditions", "laws and regulations", and. "order", "the degree of racial tension" and "administrative competence" have a significant impact on the importance of China's direct investment in countries along "Belt and Road." if extended to a significant level of 10%, Well, the indicators "corruption" and "the political influence of religion" also have a significant impact on the importance of China's direct investment in countries along "Belt and Road". This paper puts forward policy suggestions on direct investment of Chinese enterprises along Belt and Road.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：D0;F125

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