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  本文選題：國際收支　切入點(diǎn)：失衡原因　出處：《云南大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：20世紀(jì)90年代中期以來,中國的國際收支失衡表現(xiàn)為：長期持續(xù)的經(jīng)常賬戶、資本和金融賬戶“雙順差”,儲備資產(chǎn)大規(guī)模增加。長期持續(xù)的經(jīng)常賬戶順差主要是由貨物貿(mào)易順差引起的。長期持續(xù)的資本和金融賬戶順差主要是由直接投資順差造成的�！半p順差”的積累使得中國外匯儲備余額節(jié)節(jié)攀升。中國國際收支失衡就象一把雙刃劍,長期持續(xù)的國際收支“雙順差”對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)既有正面影響也有負(fù)面影響。長期持續(xù)的貨物貿(mào)易順差以及外商直接投資流入對促進(jìn)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和增加就業(yè)發(fā)揮了重要作用。中國外匯儲備大量增加,使得中國在進(jìn)口支付、外債清償、外匯市場干預(yù)等方面擁有強(qiáng)大的實(shí)力,有利于人民幣國際地位的提升。在成為貨物貿(mào)易大國的同時,中國逐步成為世界制造業(yè)大國,并在核電、高鐵、新能源和清潔能源等領(lǐng)域已經(jīng)具有世界領(lǐng)先水平。然而,隨著貨物貿(mào)易的快速發(fā)展,中國外貿(mào)依存度不斷上升,外資大量流入,經(jīng)常賬戶中的投資收益逆差不斷擴(kuò)大,中國對國際市場和對外資的依賴性也不斷加大。中國外匯儲備規(guī)模過大,但外匯儲備投資收益率低,加之外匯占款已成為中國基礎(chǔ)貨幣投放的主要渠道,造成中央銀行貨幣政策實(shí)施困難。伴隨著中國國際貿(mào)易順差的持續(xù)增長,針對中國的貿(mào)易摩擦高發(fā)頻發(fā),使中國連續(xù)多年位居全球貿(mào)易摩擦目標(biāo)國榜首。因此,努力探尋中國國際收支失衡的原因并找到實(shí)現(xiàn)平衡的路徑和對策就顯得非常必要。改革開放初期中國選擇了以加工貿(mào)易作為發(fā)展外貿(mào)的突破口,通過加工貿(mào)易使外資與中國豐富廉價的勞動力相結(jié)合,拉動中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,增加就業(yè),使得中國貨物貿(mào)易順差逐步擴(kuò)大。中國在利用外資上選擇了外商直接投資為主,國家在政策上鼓勵和支持,并給外資以“超國民待遇”,使外商投資企業(yè)成為加工貿(mào)易和外貿(mào)出口的主導(dǎo),使中國經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。內(nèi)部失衡是中國國際收支失衡的根本原因,儲蓄率居高不下,加之金融的低效率使儲蓄不能有效轉(zhuǎn)化為投資,以及國內(nèi)消費(fèi)率低更加劇了中國的“雙順差”。此外,人民幣匯率、利率、GDP增長率、人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)以及相關(guān)的政府調(diào)控政策等都是影響中國國際收支的重要因素。中國國際收支實(shí)現(xiàn)平衡的基本路徑和對策措施在于將中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方式轉(zhuǎn)到主要依靠內(nèi)需上來,并通過改革、轉(zhuǎn)型、創(chuàng)新找到經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的持續(xù)動力,改善收入分配,提高金融效率,加快要素市場改革步伐,并對現(xiàn)有的經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目管理政策、資本項(xiàng)目管理政策和外匯儲備管理政策進(jìn)行改進(jìn)和完善。同時,通過“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略的實(shí)施,促進(jìn)中國國際收支的平衡。
[Abstract]:Since the middle of 1990s, China's balance-of-payments imbalances have manifested itself in a long-term, ongoing current account. "double surplus" in capital and financial accounts, and a large increase in reserve assets. The long-term persistent current account surplus is mainly caused by the surplus in trade in goods. The long-term persistent surplus in capital and financial accounts is mainly due to direct investment. The accumulation of "double surplus" has made the balance of China's foreign exchange reserves climb steadily. China's balance of payments imbalance is like a double-edged sword. The long-lasting balance of payments "double surplus" has both positive and negative effects on china's economy. The long-lasting surplus in goods trade and the inflow of foreign direct investment have played a role in promoting china's economic growth and increasing employment. China's foreign exchange reserves have increased substantially, It makes China have strong strength in import payment, foreign debt repayment, foreign exchange market intervention, and so on, which is conducive to the upgrading of the international status of RMB. While becoming a big trading country in goods, China has gradually become a major manufacturing country in the world. And has already taken the lead in the fields of nuclear power, high-speed rail, new energy and clean energy. However, with the rapid development of trade in goods, China's dependence on foreign trade has been rising, and foreign capital has been pouring in. The investment income deficit in the current account continues to grow, and China's dependence on international markets and foreign investment is also growing. China's foreign exchange reserves are too large, but the return on foreign exchange reserves is low. In addition, the foreign exchange account has become the main channel for China's basic currency investment, resulting in difficulties in the implementation of the monetary policy of the Central Bank. With the continuous growth of China's international trade surplus, trade frictions against China are frequently occurring. For many years in a row, China ranks first in the list of target countries for global trade frictions. It is very necessary to explore the cause of China's balance of payments imbalance and find out the path and countermeasures to achieve it. In the early stage of reform and opening up, China chose processing trade as a breakthrough for the development of foreign trade. Through processing trade, foreign investment is combined with China's abundant and cheap labor force, thus stimulating China's economic growth, increasing employment, and making China's trade surplus in goods gradually expand. China has chosen foreign direct investment as the main source of foreign investment. The state encourages and supports the policies of the state, and gives foreign capital "super national treatment" so that foreign-invested enterprises become the dominant players in processing trade and foreign trade exports. The internal imbalance is the fundamental cause of the imbalance in China's balance of payments. The high savings rate, coupled with the low efficiency of the financial system, prevents savings from being effectively converted into investment. And the low domestic consumption rate has exacerbated China's "double surplus". In addition, the RMB exchange rate, interest rate and GDP growth rate, The age structure of the population and related government regulation and control policies are all important factors affecting China's balance of payments. The basic path and countermeasures for China's balance of payments balance of payments are to shift the mode of China's economic growth to rely mainly on domestic demand. And through reform, transformation, innovation to find the sustained driving force of economic growth, improve income distribution, improve financial efficiency, accelerate the pace of factor market reform, and the existing current account management policies, The capital account management policy and the foreign exchange reserve management policy are improved and perfected. At the same time, through the implementation of the "Belt and Road" strategy, China's balance of payments will be promoted.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F832.6
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本文編號：1556410