本文關(guān)鍵詞：多區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與技術(shù)創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散的政策模擬系統(tǒng)研發(fā)及其應(yīng)用　出處：《華東師范大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 地理計算 碳排放 政策模擬 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長 全球治理

【摘要】：近年來,隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長面臨嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)以及氣候變化問題的凸現(xiàn),積極推動區(qū)域技術(shù)創(chuàng)新以加快產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級和推行節(jié)能減排正得到各相關(guān)利益主體的廣泛關(guān)注。在此背景下,本文應(yīng)用地理計算技術(shù)試圖探討多區(qū)域技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與擴(kuò)散對全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和碳減排的影響,目的是使得地理計算具有更多現(xiàn)實與政策意義。本文應(yīng)用地理計算方法開發(fā)了多區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和技術(shù)創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散的政策模擬系統(tǒng),并將其應(yīng)用于全球產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)化和碳排放轉(zhuǎn)移的政策模擬分析。模型在內(nèi)容上,基于進(jìn)化經(jīng)濟(jì)理論,通過引入基于自主體模擬(Agent-based simulation, ABS)的地理計算方法,本文將微觀尺度上企業(yè)技術(shù)的空間創(chuàng)新與擴(kuò)散行為和區(qū)域尺度上各個國家產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)化和碳排放轉(zhuǎn)移通過進(jìn)化分析聯(lián)系起來,構(gòu)建了一個從大量異質(zhì)性企業(yè)出發(fā),到區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)化和碳排放轉(zhuǎn)移的模擬模型。其次,在技術(shù)方法學(xué)上,從軟件工程的角度出發(fā),本文設(shè)計并研發(fā)了多區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和技術(shù)創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散的政策模擬系統(tǒng)并將其應(yīng)用于相關(guān)政策模擬分析,以期為相關(guān)利益主體提供科學(xué)決策支持。具體來看,在模型構(gòu)建中,本文構(gòu)建了具有內(nèi)生技術(shù)創(chuàng)新機(jī)制和微觀企業(yè)基礎(chǔ)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)化與碳排放轉(zhuǎn)移的可計算模型,從而探討創(chuàng)新空間擴(kuò)散推動下多區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)化和碳排放轉(zhuǎn)移過程。模型基于Agent建模原理,采用自底向上的建模結(jié)構(gòu),分為兩個層面,包含宏觀尺度上各個區(qū)域(國家)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)化和碳排放轉(zhuǎn)移以及微觀尺度上企業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與擴(kuò)散行為,其中微觀企業(yè)行為變動將促進(jìn)并帶動區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)演變以及區(qū)域碳排放轉(zhuǎn)移。另外基于Schumpeter提出的技術(shù)創(chuàng)新發(fā)展模式,本文中模型將技術(shù)創(chuàng)新分為產(chǎn)品技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和過程技術(shù)創(chuàng)新,從而對不同企業(yè)類型的創(chuàng)新行為進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)刻畫,給出了異質(zhì)性企業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新行為是如何推動生產(chǎn)要素和資源的跨區(qū)域、跨部門流動,以及帶動總體宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)化和碳排放轉(zhuǎn)移的地理分析解釋框架。而在方法學(xué)上,考慮到地理計算模擬平臺在模擬復(fù)雜地理空間進(jìn)化機(jī)制上具有的顯著優(yōu)勢,本研究以Matlab軟件為基礎(chǔ)并結(jié)合可視化開發(fā)平臺Visual Studio,使用C≠編程語言來進(jìn)一步開發(fā)了多區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和技術(shù)創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散的地理模擬系統(tǒng),并將其應(yīng)用于全球產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)化和碳排放轉(zhuǎn)移的政策模擬分析。在應(yīng)用方面,通過構(gòu)建并設(shè)計具有地理背景的ABS政策模擬系統(tǒng),本文研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：在過程技術(shù)創(chuàng)新情景下,大部分區(qū)域(國家)的第一產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)出份額均出現(xiàn)下降,同時其就業(yè)份額也隨之呈現(xiàn)下降狀態(tài)。當(dāng)各個地區(qū)的企業(yè)僅僅進(jìn)行產(chǎn)品技術(shù)創(chuàng)新時,區(qū)域的第一產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)出份額均出現(xiàn)上升現(xiàn)象,而第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)出份額則均表現(xiàn)出下降趨勢�；旌霞夹g(shù)創(chuàng)新模式顯著地有利于推動發(fā)展中國家的整個產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型升級,而對發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體來說,就其以制造業(yè)和重工業(yè)為主的第二產(chǎn)業(yè)來看,會顯著的降低其在整個國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的產(chǎn)出份額,但會一定程度上改善其就業(yè)份額。此外,需要注意的是,與過程技術(shù)創(chuàng)新相比,混合技術(shù)創(chuàng)新更有利于推動整個產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)向第二產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)化發(fā)展。與過程技術(shù)創(chuàng)新情景下相比,在產(chǎn)品技術(shù)創(chuàng)新情景下,各個國家和地區(qū)的碳排放空間轉(zhuǎn)移增長量以及增長速度均出現(xiàn)不同程度的下降。而在混合技術(shù)創(chuàng)新下,對于大多數(shù)國家而言,其對進(jìn)一步降低碳排放轉(zhuǎn)移量具有一定作用。同時,與過程技術(shù)創(chuàng)新、產(chǎn)品技術(shù)創(chuàng)新相比,混合技術(shù)創(chuàng)新一方面通過改進(jìn)生產(chǎn)工藝流程而提高能源使用效率,進(jìn)而降低單位產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)出的碳排放強(qiáng)度,另一方面通過提升產(chǎn)品技術(shù)代從而加快產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化升級,引起其產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)從相對低效率、高耗能產(chǎn)業(yè)向相對高效率、低耗能的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型,從而改變相應(yīng)區(qū)域的進(jìn)出口產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu),在上述二者的共同作用下,其能有效減輕各個國家或區(qū)域碳排放轉(zhuǎn)移量。因此,在政策制定層面上,需要引起各利益主體重視的是,為減輕各個國家和地區(qū)的因貿(mào)易而引起的碳排放轉(zhuǎn)移對其減排責(zé)任的影響,開展技術(shù)創(chuàng)新尤其是強(qiáng)化混合技術(shù)創(chuàng)新是其可采取的有效方法。這一結(jié)論對地理上系統(tǒng)碳排放治理頗有意義。而進(jìn)一步的模擬數(shù)據(jù)與真實數(shù)據(jù)校驗顯示,混合技術(shù)創(chuàng)新模式可能更符合未來全球經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式。為此本文也進(jìn)一步模擬了在混合技術(shù)創(chuàng)新對全球產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)化和碳排放轉(zhuǎn)移的影響。其研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：在混合技術(shù)創(chuàng)新模式的推動下,從在產(chǎn)出結(jié)構(gòu)方面上看,對于全球各個國家或區(qū)域來說,其第一產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)出份額均會出現(xiàn)不同程度的下降,而第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)出份額均呈現(xiàn)出上升的趨勢,而就第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)出份額而言,除美國和歐盟等地外,其他地區(qū)的份額均出現(xiàn)上升。而在就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)方面,各個國家表現(xiàn)出較大的差異,如對于中國來說,其第二產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的就業(yè)份額均會上升,而對于日本、俄羅斯、印度和歐盟來說,其第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的就業(yè)份額會顯著提高,但其第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的就業(yè)份額均顯現(xiàn)出微弱的下降。但需要注意的是,對于美國而言,其第二產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的就業(yè)份額出現(xiàn)一定程度的下降,而第一產(chǎn)業(yè)則表現(xiàn)出逐漸上升的趨勢。進(jìn)一步,研究發(fā)現(xiàn)混合技術(shù)創(chuàng)新推動可能更有利于推動產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)向第二產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)調(diào)整,進(jìn)而推動區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。在碳排放轉(zhuǎn)移上,在產(chǎn)品技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和過程技術(shù)創(chuàng)新共同推動下,這些國家和地區(qū)的碳排放轉(zhuǎn)移量均持續(xù)增加,這就可能說明了隨著未來全球產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的不斷加速,商品的生產(chǎn)者和消費(fèi)者在地理上分離的趨勢也可能會愈發(fā)顯著。此外,進(jìn)一步具體到國家來看,流出中國、美國、俄羅斯和歐盟的碳排放呈現(xiàn)出逐漸下降的趨勢,而流入碳排放則呈現(xiàn)不斷上升趨勢。而對于日本和印度來說,流出的碳排放不斷上升,流入的碳排放則顯著下降。最后,就其地緣經(jīng)濟(jì)影響來看,本文研究還發(fā)現(xiàn)：在未來區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)演化過程中,美國的地緣主導(dǎo)優(yōu)勢可能會進(jìn)一步得到強(qiáng)化,而隨著中國通過倡導(dǎo)建立亞投行以及提出自主知識產(chǎn)權(quán)的新經(jīng)濟(jì)政策等,其一定程度上會推動其金融業(yè)發(fā)展。但需要注意的是,這不可避免地可能會挑戰(zhàn)以美國和歐盟等國為主導(dǎo)的金融業(yè)國家利益,因而在此背景下,中國尤其需要注意面對復(fù)雜、具有激烈競爭力的地緣政治經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢。此外,就日本而言,在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化進(jìn)程中,從其經(jīng)濟(jì)利益立場來看,由于其制造業(yè)發(fā)展優(yōu)勢與金融業(yè)優(yōu)勢均會呈現(xiàn)逐漸面臨弱化之勢,因此在未來地緣經(jīng)濟(jì)立場中,其與歐美等發(fā)達(dá)國家并非一可能致,這一點需要引起相關(guān)利益主體的重視。最后尤其需要關(guān)注的是,就中國、俄羅斯和印度來看,這三個國家在地緣經(jīng)濟(jì)立場上具有較為一致性,而這似乎也與當(dāng)前這三個國家在全球地緣政治問題上的具有較多共同性觀點較為吻合。這一結(jié)論建立了地緣政治分析的一個基礎(chǔ)。此外,在本研究取得一些重要發(fā)現(xiàn)的同時,其仍然在如下方面存在繼續(xù)改進(jìn)之處,如在考慮區(qū)域最終需求結(jié)構(gòu)變化的差異、企業(yè)行為規(guī)則建模、模擬數(shù)據(jù)和真實數(shù)據(jù)的比較以及多區(qū)域技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與擴(kuò)散對各個地區(qū)各個產(chǎn)業(yè)部門的碳排放轉(zhuǎn)移等。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the global economic growth is facing a severe challenge and highlights the problem of climate change, and actively promote regional technological innovation to speed up the attention of upgrading of the industrial structure and the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction are all the main stakeholders. Under this background, this paper applied science and Computing technology to influence on technological innovation and diffusion of multi region on the global economy growth and carbon emission reduction, the purpose is to make the calculation more realistic geographical and policy significance. The application of geographical calculation method developed a number of regional economic growth and diffusion of technology innovation policy simulation system, and the simulation analysis of its application in the global industrial structure evolution and carbon emissions transfer policy. In the content model, the evolution of economic theory based on introducing based on agent-based modeling (Agent-based simulation ABS) calculation method of geography, the micro scale enterprises The space industry technology innovation and diffusion behavior of various countries and regional scale industrial structure evolution and analysis of carbon emissions transfer linked through evolution, construct a starting from a large number of heterogeneous firms, the simulation model of regional industrial structure evolution and carbon emissions transfer. Secondly, in the methodology, from the perspective of software engineering point of view, this thesis designs and develops a multi regional economic growth and technological innovation diffusion policy simulation system and its application in related policy simulation analysis, in order to provide scientific decision-making support for the stakeholders. Specifically, in the model, this paper has constructed the endogenous technology innovation mechanism based on macro and micro enterprises the economic industrial structure evolution and carbon emissions transfer model, so as to explore the innovation spatial diffusion driven by multi regional industrial structure evolution and carbon emissions transfer process. Agent modeling based on the principle of using the bottom-up modeling structure, divided into two levels, including the various regional macro scale (National) economic structure evolution and carbon emissions transfer and micro scale enterprise technology innovation and diffusion behavior, including micro enterprises changes will promote and drive the regional economic structure evolvement and regional carbon the transfer of emissions. In addition based on the development mode of technology innovation is put forward by Schumpeter, the model of technological innovation is divided into product innovation and process innovation, and a detailed description of the innovation behavior of different types of enterprises, technological innovation behavior of heterogeneous firms is given how to promote cross regional production factors and resources, cross sectoral flow well, driven by the overall macroeconomic structure evolution and carbon emissions transfer geographic analysis framework to explain. In methodology, taking into account the geographical simulation Have significant advantages in the simulation of complex geo spatial evolution mechanism on the platform, this study based on the Matlab software combined with the visual development platform Visual Studio, using C and programming language to the further development of the regional economic growth and technological innovation diffusion of geographical simulation system, and the simulation analysis of its application in the global industrial structure and evolution carbon emissions transfer policy. In the application, through the construction and design of the ABS system has the geographical background of policy simulation, this study found that: in the process of technology innovation situation, most of the region (state) of the first and third industry output share declined, while the share of employment will decline when only. The product technology innovation in various parts of the enterprise, the area of the first and third industry output share rise phenomenon, while the second industry The output share showed a downward trend. The mixed mode of technological innovation significantly conducive to promoting the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure in developing countries, while in developed economies, the manufacturing industry and the heavy industry of the second industry, will significantly reduce its in the whole national economy share of output, but will to improve the share of employment to a certain extent. In addition, the need to pay attention to is, compared with the process of technological innovation, technological innovation and more conducive to promoting the mixed development of the industrial structure to the second industry and the third industry optimization. Compared with the process of technological innovation in product technology innovation situation, context transfer in various countries and regions of carbon space there are different degrees of decline in growth rate and growth rate. In the hybrid technology innovation, for most countries, to further reduce carbon emissions transfer amount Has a certain role. At the same time, and the process of technological innovation, compared with product technology innovation, a hybrid technology innovation by improving the production process and improve energy efficiency, thereby reducing the intensity of carbon emissions per unit of product output, on the other hand, by improving product technology generation so as to speed up the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, the industrial structure from the relative low efficiency, high energy consuming industries to relatively high efficiency, low energy consumption and the transformation of industrial structure, so as to change the corresponding region of import and export trade structure, the interaction between the two parties, which can effectively reduce the carbon emissions of each country or region transfer. Therefore, in the policy level, the various stakeholders need to attract attention is that in order to reduce the various countries and regions caused by trade transfer effect on the carbon emission reduction responsibility, carry out technological innovation especially the enhancement of mixing technology Technology innovation is an effective method which can be taken. This conclusion is of significance to the management system of carbon emissions. The geographic simulation data and real data show further verification, technical innovation model of mixed mode may be more in line with the future development of the global economy. This paper also further simulate the effect of technological innovation on the transfer of hybrid global industrial structure evolution and carbon emissions. The study found: in the mixed mode of promoting technological innovation, in terms of output structure, the global various countries or regions, the first industrial output will decrease the share of different degrees, and the third industry output share showed an upward trend, and in terms of the second industry output share, in addition to the United States and the European Union and other places, other regions share rise. But in the aspects of employment structure, each country has shown significant differences Such as, for China, the second industry and the third industry employment share will rise, and for Japan, Russia, India and the EU, the second industry employment share will significantly increase, but the third industry employment share showed a weak decline. But it is important to note that, for the United States. The second and third industry employment share decreased to some extent, while the first industry showed a gradual upward trend. Further, the study found that hybrid technology innovation may be more conducive to promoting the industrial structure to the second industry and the third industry adjustment, and promote regional economic development. In carbon emissions transfer, to jointly promote the products the process of technological innovation and technological innovation, these countries and regions of the carbon emission transfer amount continues to increase, which may prove that with the future global industry structure adjustment Continue to accelerate, the producers and consumers of goods in the geographical separation trend may also be increasingly significant. In addition, further specific to the country, the United States, Russia and Chinese outflow, the EU carbon emissions show a decreasing trend, while the inflow of carbon emissions showed a rising trend. But for Japan and India, outflow carbon emissions continue to rise, the inflow of carbon emissions decreased significantly. Finally, in terms of its economic impact, this study also found that in the future regional economic evolution process, the geopolitical dominance can be further strengthened, and with the China by advocating the establishment of Asian investment bank and the independent intellectual property rights of the new economy the policy, to a certain extent will promote the development of the financial industry. But note that this might inevitably challenge to the United States and the European Union and other countries as the leading gold The financial industry and the interests of the state, under this background, China especially need to pay attention to in the face of the complex, with fierce competitive geopolitical economic situation. In addition, the case of Japan, in the process of global economic integration, from the standpoint of economic interests, because of the development of manufacturing industry and the financial industry will be advantage advantage gradually weakened face therefore, in the future economic position, with Europe and other developed countries is not possible, it needs to cause stakeholders attention. Finally, especially need attention, it Chinese, Russia and India, the three countries have more consistency in the geo economic position, and it seems to have with the current of the three countries in the global geopolitical issues have many common views are consistent. This conclusion establishes a basis for geopolitical analysis. In addition, in this study A number of important discoveries, the continuing improvement is still in the following aspects such as the consideration of regional differences in the final demand structure change, enterprise behavior rule modeling, comparison of simulation data and real data and multi regional technological innovation and diffusion of the Department of each industry in each area of carbon emissions transfer.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F113.2
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本文編號：1440809