本文關鍵詞：中國節(jié)能目標分解與分配研究　出處：《對外經濟貿易大學》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

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【摘要】：通過“十一五”、“十二五”節(jié)能目標的順利實施,中國節(jié)能減排取得顯著成效,“十二五”期間,我國如期完成單位GDP能耗下降16%的節(jié)能目標。然而,中國目前正處于工業(yè)化和城市化中期階段,高速的經濟發(fā)展帶來了能源消費量的急劇上升。與發(fā)達國家能耗水平相比,中國還存在一定的差距�！笆濉惫�(jié)能目標是以單位GDP能耗下降為主要目標,“十三五”節(jié)能目標包括能源總量的控制和能耗強度的下降。因此,充分參照“十二五”以及歷年來中國能源發(fā)展形勢、節(jié)能工作和國外經驗基礎上,通過深入能源消費總量的因素研究,同時科學合理地預測“十三五”及中長期能源需求和能源強度,并將節(jié)能目標分解至每個地市,提出現(xiàn)實可行的實施路徑及政策建議。這將有利于優(yōu)化配置能源消費增量,促進地區(qū)產業(yè)結構轉型,實現(xiàn)經濟社會持續(xù)健康發(fā)展。本論文總結我國經濟和能源發(fā)展趨勢的基礎上,通過不同層面和不同部門的劃分,利用指數(shù)分解方法,研究能源消費影響因素對能源消費總量變動的影響,研究表明能源強度和生產總產值仍是影響能源消費量變動的主要驅動因素,而其影響已緩慢變弱,要有效控制能源消費總量和單位GDP能耗,優(yōu)化產業(yè)結構和能源結構是今后節(jié)能工作的重點。同時,本文設置經濟轉型和低碳發(fā)展雙約束下的情景,通過采用CGE模型和人均能耗法預測中國“十三五”以及中長期經濟和能源發(fā)展態(tài)勢,從而確定中國“十三五”節(jié)能目標。從CGE模型結果分析可知,在國家政策強約束下,中國能源消費總量可以控制到50億噸標準煤左右,而通過對比世界主要國家的情況,本文采用人均能耗對比分析法預測中國2020年能源消費總量,結果顯示在正常能源消費情景下,2020年中國的能源消費總量為64億噸標準煤,這遠超出我國資源承載力和減排承諾的要求。綜合考慮中國“十三五”期間經濟轉型難度較大,經濟新動能有待形成規(guī)模的實際狀況,建議中國“十三五”能源消費總量控制目標為50億噸標準煤,能源強度下降的目標為15%。同時,本文基于遺傳算法可提高判斷矩陣一致性的優(yōu)點,采用遺傳算法對傳統(tǒng)層次分析法進行修正,同時測算各主特征向量即各影響因素的權重,研究結果表明節(jié)能必要性對我國節(jié)能目標分解影響最大,權重為53.33%;節(jié)能能力次之,權重為33.34%;節(jié)能難度相對較小,分別為13.33%。單位GDP能耗、單位工業(yè)增加值能耗、人均GDP、技術市場成交額與等影響因素對于準則層影響較大。采用層次分析法,基于我國能源消費量的控制范圍,給出中國“十三五”節(jié)能目標方案中的能源強度下降目標地區(qū)層面的分解結果方案。方案中分為五類地區(qū),一類地區(qū):天津市、上海市、廣東省、浙江省、江蘇省、北京市;二類地區(qū):山東、遼寧省、河北省;三類地區(qū):重慶市、福建省、內蒙古自治區(qū)、山西省、湖南省、安徽省、江西省、湖北省、河南省、陜西省;四類地區(qū):甘肅省、青海省、湖北省、四川省、貴州省;五類地區(qū):海南省、吉林省、黑龍江省、廣西壯族自治區(qū)、新疆。從地區(qū)分解結果方案看,經濟發(fā)展階段、生產技術水平等經濟因素是制約節(jié)能目標完成的主要因素。而對比“十一五”、“十二五”看,工業(yè)能耗仍是節(jié)能目標分解的關鍵,因此工業(yè)部門的節(jié)能依舊是是中國完成中長期節(jié)能目標的重要抓手,同時既滿足地區(qū)發(fā)展經濟所需,又在能力范疇內有效完成地區(qū)節(jié)能目標也是分解方案設計需要平衡的。
[Abstract]:Through the "11th Five-Year", "the smooth implementation of 12th Five-Year" energy-saving targets, China energy-saving emission reduction achieved remarkable results, "12th Five-Year" period, China's energy saving target completion of unit GDP energy consumption by 16%. However, China is currently in the middle stage of industrialization and city, rapid economic development has brought a sharp rise in energy consumption. Compared with the developed countries. Chinese energy consumption level, there is still a gap. "12th Five-Year" energy-saving goal is the unit of GDP energy consumption decreased as the main target, "the decline in 13th Five-Year" energy-saving targets including the total energy control and energy intensity. Therefore, full reference to the "12th Five-Year", over the years China energy development situation, energy saving work and on the basis of the experience abroad, through in-depth study on factors of total energy consumption, and prediction of "13th Five-Year" and the long-term energy demand and reasonable The source strength, and energy saving target decomposition to each city, put forward the implementation path and policy suggestions. This will help to optimize the allocation of energy consumption, and promote the transformation of regional industrial structure, to achieve sustained and healthy economic and social development. This thesis summarizes our country economy and energy development trend, through different levels different departments and divisions, using the index decomposition method, influence factors on the influence of energy consumption in total energy consumption changes, the results show that the main driver of change of energy intensity and production output is still affecting the energy consumption factors, and its influence has been slowly weakening, in order to effectively control the total energy consumption and energy consumption per unit of GDP, the optimization of the industrial structure and energy structure is the focus of future energy saving. At the same time, this paper set up the economic transformation and low carbon development under the double constraints of the situation, by using the CGE model and the per capita Forecast Chinese "13th Five-Year" and the long-term development of economy and energy consumption situation, so as to determine the China "13th Five-Year" energy-saving goals. From the analysis of the result of CGE model, in the national policy under strong constraints, China can control the total energy consumption to 50 tons of standard coal, and through the comparison of the main countries in the world, the paper adopts the prediction the total energy consumption in 2020 Chinese per capita energy consumption comparative analysis, the results showed that in normal energy consumption situation, 2020 Chinese the total energy consumption of 64 tons of standard coal, which is far beyond our resource bearing capacity and emission reduction commitment requirements. Considering the China "difficult economic transition" in 13th Five-Year during the great economic, new energy to be formed the size of the actual situation, proposed Chinese 13th Five-Year total energy consumption control target of 50 tons of standard coal, energy intensity target for 15%. At the same time, the genetic algorithm can improve the consistency of judgment matrix based on the advantages, using genetic algorithm to modify the traditional analytical method, and estimates the main feature vector is the weight of various factors, the results of the study show that the necessity of energy saving ring for the largest of China's energy-saving target decomposition, the weight is 53.33%; energy saving ability, the weight is 33.34%; such difficulty is relatively small, respectively 13.33%. unit GDP energy consumption per unit of industrial added value of energy consumption, per capita GDP, factors of technology market turnover and effect has great influence on the rule layer. Using AHP, the control range of China's energy consumption based on the decomposition of the energy intensity are China scheme "in 13th Five-Year" energy saving target falls in the target area is divided into five levels. In the scheme, a kind of area: Tianjin City, Shanghai City, Guangdong Province, Zhejiang Province, Jiangsu Province, Beijing City, two; Area: Shandong, Liaoning Province, Hebei province; three areas: Chongqing City, Fujian Province, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Shanxi Province, Hunan Province, Anhui Province, Jiangxi Province, Hubei Province, Henan Province, Shaanxi province; four regions: Gansu Province, Qinghai Province, Hubei Province, Sichuan Province, Guizhou province; five area: Hainan Province, Jilin Province, Heilongjiang Province, the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Xinjiang. The decomposition results from regional plan, the stage of economic development, the level of production technology and other economic factors are the main factors restricting the completion of energy-saving targets. And the comparison of "11th Five-Year", "12th Five-Year", a key industrial energy consumption is still energy-saving target decomposition, thus saving energy the industrial sector is still an important starting point for long-term energy-saving targets Chinese completed, both meet the economic development needs, but also in the category area is effectively complete energy-saving target decomposition scheme design need to be balanced.

【學位授予單位】：對外經濟貿易大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F206
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本文編號：1406825