本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的我國(guó)節(jié)能減排路徑設(shè)計(jì)與績(jī)效評(píng)價(jià)研究　出處：《哈爾濱工程大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)節(jié)能減排已成為世界各國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)全球氣候變暖、環(huán)境日益惡化問(wèn)題的重要途徑。我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在快速發(fā)展的同時(shí),也付出了巨大的環(huán)境代價(jià)。如何發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì),實(shí)現(xiàn)節(jié)能減排,為人民創(chuàng)造更加良好的生活環(huán)境,已成為全社會(huì)共同關(guān)注的問(wèn)題。本論文試圖對(duì)基于低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的節(jié)能減排實(shí)現(xiàn)路徑進(jìn)行分析,并對(duì)其節(jié)能減排績(jī)效進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。從低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的角度探討我國(guó)節(jié)能減排的耦合機(jī)制與發(fā)展?jié)摿?分析影響節(jié)能減排的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素及各影響因素之間的作用關(guān)系;揭示不同層面上的節(jié)能減排實(shí)現(xiàn)路徑,最后圍繞績(jī)效評(píng)價(jià)開(kāi)展實(shí)證研究并提出對(duì)策建議。論文主要包括以下七個(gè)部分:第一,基于低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的我國(guó)節(jié)能減排現(xiàn)狀與趨勢(shì)研究。在分析低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)涵、特點(diǎn)以及與綠色經(jīng)濟(jì)、循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)和生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)別和聯(lián)系的基礎(chǔ)上,分析我國(guó)節(jié)能減排的現(xiàn)狀及存在問(wèn)題,總結(jié)我國(guó)實(shí)施節(jié)能減排戰(zhàn)略以來(lái)取得的總體成效以及面臨的難點(diǎn)。在進(jìn)一步剖析低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)與節(jié)能減排關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上,提出低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)下的我國(guó)實(shí)施節(jié)能減排進(jìn)行的步驟和路線圖。第二,進(jìn)行節(jié)能減排的低碳效應(yīng)與耦合機(jī)制研究。分析實(shí)施節(jié)能減排戰(zhàn)略具有的低碳效應(yīng),具體包括理念效應(yīng)、戰(zhàn)略效應(yīng)、技術(shù)效應(yīng)、規(guī)模效應(yīng);同時(shí)實(shí)施節(jié)能減排具有的低碳機(jī)制,具體包括動(dòng)力與傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制、激勵(lì)與約束機(jī)制。第三,基于低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的我國(guó)節(jié)能減排潛力分析。分別對(duì)從能源消耗與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展關(guān)系分析入手,探尋低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)下的節(jié)能減排潛力,證實(shí)中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、能源消耗、資本(存量)和勞動(dòng)力存在長(zhǎng)期的均衡關(guān)系,在調(diào)整能源結(jié)構(gòu)和減少污染排放方面具有巨大的潛力。隨后對(duì)能源結(jié)構(gòu)和碳排放兩個(gè)節(jié)能減排的關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)進(jìn)行分析,首先通過(guò)建立能源結(jié)構(gòu)合理度3E模型,實(shí)證結(jié)果表明對(duì)我國(guó)能源結(jié)構(gòu)合理度呈“U”狀。其次,利用改進(jìn)的IP AT環(huán)境模型,對(duì)2009-2020年我國(guó)的人口、人均GDP、二氧化碳排放總量、單位GDP二氧化碳排放等指標(biāo)進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)。第四,基于低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的我國(guó)節(jié)能減排影響因素與作用路徑分析。首先運(yùn)用理論研究與實(shí)證研究相結(jié)合的方法,梳理和總結(jié)基于低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的節(jié)能減排影響因素。然后,應(yīng)用解釋結(jié)構(gòu)模型理論(ISM),通過(guò)構(gòu)建基于低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的節(jié)能減排影響因素層級(jí)結(jié)構(gòu)模型,通過(guò)該模型系統(tǒng)地闡明中國(guó)基于低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)節(jié)能減排的影響因素,并著重理順各因素間層次結(jié)構(gòu)關(guān)系及其作用路徑。第五,基于低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的我國(guó)節(jié)能減排路徑研究。首先進(jìn)行節(jié)能減排路徑的理論設(shè)計(jì),構(gòu)建節(jié)能減排路徑的理論模型與理論假設(shè),然后運(yùn)用結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型對(duì)理論路徑進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),通過(guò)驗(yàn)證對(duì)理論模型進(jìn)行修正,在此基礎(chǔ)上驗(yàn)證了實(shí)現(xiàn)節(jié)能減排的三條路徑,即產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整路徑、能源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化路徑與技術(shù)創(chuàng)新路徑。最后從經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情景、社會(huì)環(huán)境、居民行為、企業(yè)行為、政策制度、技術(shù)環(huán)境等方面對(duì)具體的三條路徑的實(shí)現(xiàn)途徑進(jìn)行定量與定性分析,并提出不同環(huán)境下三條路徑的實(shí)現(xiàn)方式及實(shí)現(xiàn)措施。第六,基于低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)我國(guó)節(jié)能減排績(jī)效評(píng)價(jià)研究。在構(gòu)建基于低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的節(jié)能減排績(jī)效評(píng)價(jià)體系的基礎(chǔ)上,首先運(yùn)用基于參數(shù)的隨機(jī)前沿分析(SFA)方法測(cè)試2001-2014年環(huán)境約束下的中國(guó)區(qū)域全要素能源效率,同時(shí)引入能源污染綜合指數(shù)(EPI),用于衡量我國(guó)各省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過(guò)程中對(duì)環(huán)境的影響;然后選擇中國(guó)低碳建設(shè)首批低碳試點(diǎn)省份,利用脫鉤方法分析碳排放績(jī)效分析;最后,根據(jù)我國(guó)30個(gè)省的實(shí)證數(shù)據(jù),通過(guò)熵值法對(duì)各指標(biāo)進(jìn)行權(quán)重的確定,運(yùn)用模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法對(duì)我國(guó)節(jié)能減排績(jī)效的實(shí)際情況進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià)。第七,基于低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的我國(guó)節(jié)能減排對(duì)策研究。分別從調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、加強(qiáng)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新、完善碳稅及碳市場(chǎng)化模式、構(gòu)建低碳消費(fèi)模式等方面,提出實(shí)現(xiàn)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)下的節(jié)能減排目標(biāo)的相應(yīng)對(duì)策。研究成果為低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)節(jié)能減排的實(shí)現(xiàn)路徑及績(jī)效評(píng)價(jià)的相關(guān)研究提供了新的思路和參考依據(jù),將有效促進(jìn)基于低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的我國(guó)節(jié)能減排工作的進(jìn)一步實(shí)施。
[Abstract]:Developing low carbon economy to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction has become an important way for all countries to deal with global warming and environmental degradation. While China's economy is developing rapidly, it has also paid a huge environmental price. How to develop low carbon economy, realize energy saving and emission reduction and create a better living environment for the people has become a common concern of the whole society. This paper tries to analyze the path of energy saving and emission reduction based on low carbon economy, and make an empirical study on the performance of energy saving and emission reduction. Study on the coupling mechanism and the development potential of energy conservation and emission reduction in China from the perspective of a low carbon economy, the relationships between factors affecting the driving factors of energy saving and emission reduction and the effect of energy saving and emission reduction; to reveal the different levels of the realization of the path, around the final performance evaluation to carry out empirical research and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions. The paper mainly includes the following seven parts: first, the current situation and trend of energy saving and emission reduction in China based on low carbon economy. In the analysis of low carbon economy connotation, characteristics and green economy, circular economy and ecological economy difference and relation on the basis of the analysis of the present situation of energy conservation and emission reduction in China and the existing problems, summarize the achievements since the implementation of energy-saving emission reduction strategy in China and facing difficulties. On the basis of further analysis of the relationship between low carbon economy and energy saving and emission reduction, the steps and roadmap of implementing energy saving and emission reduction in China under low carbon economy are put forward. Second, the low carbon effect and coupling mechanism of energy saving and emission reduction are studied. Analysis of the implementation of energy saving and emission reduction strategy has low carbon effect, including the concept effect, strategic effect, technology effect and scale effect, and at the same time, implement the low carbon mechanism of energy saving and emission reduction, including power and transmission mechanism, incentive and restraint mechanism. Third, analysis of energy conservation and emission reduction potential in China based on low carbon economy. Analysis of the relationship of economic development and energy consumption from the start, to explore the potential of energy saving and emission reduction in the low carbon economy, confirmed China economic growth, energy consumption, labor and capital (stock) there is a long-term equilibrium relationship, in the adjustment of energy structure and reduce pollution emissions. There is huge potential. Then we analyze the two key indicators of energy saving and emission reduction of energy structure and carbon emissions. First, by establishing the 3E model of the rational degree of energy structure, the empirical results show that the rationality of China's energy structure is "U". Secondly, we use the improved IP AT environment model to predict the population, per capita GDP, total carbon dioxide emissions and unit GDP carbon dioxide emissions in China in the past 2009-2020 years. Fourth, based on the low carbon economy, China's energy conservation and emission reduction factors and the role of the path analysis. First, we use the method of combining theoretical research and empirical research to comb and summarize the factors of energy saving and emission reduction based on low carbon economy. Then, the application of interpretive structural model theory (ISM), through the construction of energy-saving emission reduction effect of low carbon economy factor hierarchical structure model based on the model system to clarify Chinese influencing factors of energy saving and emission reduction based on low carbon economy, and emphatically straighten out the hierarchical relationship between the factors and effects of path. Fifth, based on low carbon economy, China's energy conservation and emission reduction path research. The first theoretical design of energy saving and emission reduction path, theoretical model and hypothesis building energy saving path, and then use the structural equation model for empirical test of the theoretical path, by means of the theoretical model is verified on the basis of this amendment, verify the implementation of the three paths of energy saving and emission reduction, the adjustment of industrial structure, energy structure optimization of path and path the path of technology innovation. Finally, from the economic development scenario, social environment, residents' behavior, enterprise behavior, policy system and technology environment, we carry out quantitative and qualitative analysis of the three ways to achieve the specific path, and put forward three ways to achieve different environment and implementation measures. Sixth, based on low carbon economy, the performance evaluation of energy conservation and emission reduction in China. Based on the low carbon economy energy saving and emission reduction performance evaluation system, using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) method based on the parameters of the test Chinese regional total factor energy efficiency in 2001-2014 environment, and the energy pollution index (EPI), is used to measure the impact on the environment of China's provinces economic development process in Chinese; then choose the low carbon building low carbon pilot provinces, analysis of carbon emission performance by using decoupling method; finally, according to the empirical data of 30 provinces of our country, for each index weight by entropy method to determine the weight, comprehensive evaluation by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to the actual situation of the performance of energy saving and emission reduction in china. Seventh, based on low carbon economy in China's energy conservation and emission reduction countermeasures. From the aspects of adjusting industrial structure, strengthening technological innovation, improving carbon tax and carbon marketing mode, and building low carbon consumption mode, we put forward corresponding countermeasures to achieve energy saving and emission reduction targets under low carbon economy. The research results provide a new idea and reference for the related research of energy saving and emission reduction in low carbon economy and performance evaluation, which will effectively promote the further implementation of energy saving and emission reduction in China based on low carbon economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：X821;F124.5
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本文編號(hào)：1347340