【摘要】：本文針對(duì)地震防災(zāi)減災(zāi)領(lǐng)域的關(guān)鍵科學(xué)問(wèn)題,開(kāi)展關(guān)于地震緊急預(yù)警基礎(chǔ)理論方法與地震動(dòng)對(duì)結(jié)構(gòu)破壞性的深入系統(tǒng)研究。具體研究?jī)?nèi)容如下:通過(guò)大量具有背景信息的強(qiáng)震記錄,研究了基于短時(shí)記錄的高精度P、S波的高效識(shí)別與拾取理論方法;針對(duì)震源參數(shù)和場(chǎng)地地震動(dòng)參數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)問(wèn)題,分別研究提出了具有預(yù)警意義的初始地震動(dòng)特征參數(shù),建立了典型預(yù)警特征參數(shù)與震源參數(shù)和場(chǎng)地地震動(dòng)分布強(qiáng)度的相關(guān)性法則,提出了相應(yīng)的地震預(yù)警理論與方法。同時(shí)研究了地震動(dòng)參數(shù)與建筑結(jié)構(gòu)損傷之間的直接因果關(guān)系,把握了未來(lái)地震對(duì)結(jié)構(gòu)可能造成的破壞程度。通過(guò)研究,提出了高精度地震緊急預(yù)警的理論與方法,建立了地震動(dòng)與結(jié)構(gòu)破壞的相關(guān)關(guān)系,研究成果為開(kāi)展快速準(zhǔn)確的地震預(yù)警和早期災(zāi)害預(yù)測(cè),構(gòu)建更加合理的緊急預(yù)警與災(zāi)害評(píng)估相結(jié)合的地震應(yīng)急系統(tǒng)提供了科學(xué)依據(jù)。主要工作內(nèi)容及取得的成果歸納如下:(1)基于2008年汶川Ms8.0級(jí)地震的大量強(qiáng)震記錄以及大區(qū)域的建筑結(jié)構(gòu)倒塌率數(shù)據(jù),研究推導(dǎo)了 20個(gè)災(zāi)害地區(qū)的建筑結(jié)構(gòu)倒塌率CR與4個(gè)地震動(dòng)參數(shù)(地面峰值加速度PGA、地面峰值速度PGV、最大加速度反應(yīng)譜PSA、譜強(qiáng)度SI)之間的易損性關(guān)系,建立了相應(yīng)的地震動(dòng)對(duì)結(jié)構(gòu)危害性判斷準(zhǔn)則;提出了一種合理有效評(píng)估結(jié)構(gòu)損傷等級(jí)的理論方法,該方法能夠有效排除不同地區(qū)不同抗震設(shè)計(jì)等級(jí)的影響。根據(jù)2008年汶川地震震后《建筑抗震設(shè)計(jì)規(guī)范》修訂版規(guī)定的地震系數(shù)kR,計(jì)算得到了基于汶川地震地面峰值加速度PGA的建筑物預(yù)測(cè)倒塌率CRR值。結(jié)果顯示,按照提高后的基本加速度指標(biāo)設(shè)防,上述地區(qū)的建筑結(jié)構(gòu)預(yù)測(cè)倒塌率均呈現(xiàn)顯著降低。除八角、清平和臥龍地區(qū)分別減少到小于34%,54%和43%外,其他地區(qū)均減少到30%以下。(2)提出了一套適合于單臺(tái)站地震預(yù)警的實(shí)時(shí)P、S波復(fù)合自動(dòng)快速識(shí)別的理論與方法。首先通過(guò)提出的極化濾波方程對(duì)P、S波進(jìn)行分離,進(jìn)而引入調(diào)整系數(shù)δ對(duì)傳統(tǒng)STA/LTA方法進(jìn)行改進(jìn),并結(jié)合改良的基于高階統(tǒng)計(jì)量的AIC算法推導(dǎo)P、S波的精確到時(shí)。應(yīng)用具有代表性的地震記錄對(duì)提出的方法進(jìn)行有效性驗(yàn)證,通過(guò)汶川Ms8.0級(jí)地震的主震及其余震記錄1398條,將自動(dòng)拾取方法與人工目測(cè)拾取結(jié)果進(jìn)行比較,P波與S波的拾取率分別達(dá)到91%和85%,拾取偏差分別為-0.021±0.068s;0.025±0.169s,結(jié)果顯示提出的方法能夠快速、有效地應(yīng)用于具有復(fù)雜震源、傳播路徑以及場(chǎng)地條件下的地震預(yù)警,能夠滿足單臺(tái)站地震預(yù)警過(guò)程中對(duì)實(shí)時(shí)性、準(zhǔn)確性和高效性的嚴(yán)格要求。(3)研究提出了適合于單臺(tái)站地震預(yù)警的快速準(zhǔn)確確定地震震級(jí)的理論與方法。將提出的位移平方積分參數(shù)ID2的震級(jí)預(yù)測(cè)方法與具有代表性的既有預(yù)測(cè)方法進(jìn)行比較分析。分別以平均周期參數(shù)τc與位移幅值參數(shù)Pd作為比較對(duì)象,應(yīng)用汶川Ms8.0級(jí)地震的43個(gè)余震事件的加速度記錄,建立了 3個(gè)特征參數(shù)與地震震級(jí)之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系,推導(dǎo)得到相應(yīng)的地震震級(jí)預(yù)測(cè)公式。通過(guò)對(duì)比結(jié)果可知,提出的ID2方法對(duì)震級(jí)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果的可信度最高,較之其他既有方法具有明顯優(yōu)勢(shì)。針對(duì)特征參數(shù)在預(yù)測(cè)大地震時(shí)普遍出現(xiàn)的震級(jí)"飽和"現(xiàn)象開(kāi)展了研究。首先研究利用3s初始P波計(jì)算的特征參數(shù)在預(yù)測(cè)汶川Ms8.0級(jí)主震時(shí)的可能性,結(jié)果顯示提出的位移平方積分參數(shù)ID2的預(yù)測(cè)震級(jí)更加準(zhǔn)確。進(jìn)而以ID2作為研究對(duì)象,通過(guò)研究調(diào)整時(shí)間窗長(zhǎng)參數(shù),提出的預(yù)測(cè)公式可以用于估計(jì)大地震的震級(jí),基于6s初始P波的ID2方法能夠達(dá)到預(yù)測(cè)8.0級(jí)地震的能力。(4)研究提出了適合于單臺(tái)站地震預(yù)警的快速準(zhǔn)確確定場(chǎng)地地震動(dòng)的理論與方法。提出了基于3s初始P波的譜強(qiáng)度SI(3s)的地震動(dòng)預(yù)測(cè)方法,利用汶川Ms8.0級(jí)地震的余震記錄,研究比較了 3s譜強(qiáng)度SI(3s)、位移幅值Pd和速度平方積分IV2與地震動(dòng)參數(shù),即峰值加速度PGA、峰值速度PGV以及譜強(qiáng)度SI之間的相關(guān)性,建立了 3個(gè)特征參數(shù)與3個(gè)地震動(dòng)參數(shù)之間的擬合關(guān)系,并推導(dǎo)得到相應(yīng)的地震動(dòng)預(yù)測(cè)公式。通過(guò)對(duì)比3種方法對(duì)地震動(dòng)參數(shù)的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果,顯示了提出的SI(3s)方法對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)地震動(dòng)峰值加速度PGA的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差最小,較其他既有方法具有更高的可信度,因此能夠更好地應(yīng)用于普遍采用的加速度參數(shù)預(yù)警模式�；阢氪ǖ卣鹬髡鹋c余震數(shù)據(jù)的解析與比較,提出了一種針對(duì)大地震后續(xù)地震動(dòng)峰值進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)的方法,通過(guò)引入修正系數(shù)對(duì)預(yù)警特征參數(shù)進(jìn)行提前修正,可以緩解預(yù)測(cè)大級(jí)別地震時(shí)出現(xiàn)的地震動(dòng)"低估現(xiàn)象",實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)大地震地震動(dòng)持續(xù)過(guò)程的準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)。(5)針對(duì)基于強(qiáng)震觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建的地震預(yù)警理論與方法,通過(guò)地震動(dòng)模擬理論開(kāi)展了基于理論地震動(dòng)的分析與驗(yàn)證。提出了通過(guò)地震數(shù)值模擬方法開(kāi)展地震預(yù)警研究的理念與路線,這種方法具有良好的可行性與合理性,將為地震預(yù)警提供新的研究手段。運(yùn)用三維地震動(dòng)理論模擬方法,構(gòu)建了典型三維震源模型和地下速度結(jié)構(gòu)模型,開(kāi)展了基于震源-傳播路徑-場(chǎng)地效應(yīng)等全過(guò)程的寬頻帶地震動(dòng)模擬計(jì)算,得到相應(yīng)的理論地震動(dòng)波形記錄。針對(duì)提出的震級(jí)預(yù)警特征參數(shù)(位移平方積分ID2)以及地震動(dòng)預(yù)警特征參數(shù)(3s初始P波的譜強(qiáng)度SI(3s),基于設(shè)定地震的240條理論地震波,建立了ID2與震級(jí)M的關(guān)系,以及SI(3s)與峰值加速度PGA、峰值速度PGV、譜強(qiáng)度SI這3個(gè)地震動(dòng)參數(shù)的關(guān)系,從數(shù)值模擬的角度驗(yàn)證了提出的震級(jí)預(yù)測(cè)公式和3個(gè)地震動(dòng)預(yù)測(cè)公式的有效性和適用性。
[Abstract]:In the light of the key scientific problems in the field of earthquake disaster prevention and reduction, this paper carries out an in-depth systematic study of the basic theory of earthquake emergency early warning and ground motion on the structure. The concrete research contents are as follows: the high-precision P and S-wave high-efficiency identification and pick-up theory method based on short-time recording is studied through a large number of strong-motion records with background information, and the problem of earthquake source parameter and ground motion parameter prediction is studied. In this paper, the initial vibration characteristic parameters with early warning significance are put forward, and the correlation law of the typical early-warning characteristic parameters and the seismic source parameter and the ground-ground motion distribution intensity is established, and the corresponding earthquake early-warning theory and method are put forward. At the same time, the direct causal relationship between the ground motion parameters and the structural damage of the building is studied, and the possible degree of damage to the structure of the future earthquake is grasped. Through the research, the theory and method of high-precision earthquake emergency early warning is put forward, and the relation between ground vibration and structural failure is established, and the research results are quick and accurate earthquake early warning and early disaster prediction. It provides the scientific basis for building a more rational emergency early-warning and disaster assessment. The main contents and achievements are summarized as follows: (1) Based on a large number of strong earthquake records of the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake in 2008 and the collapse rate data of the construction structures in the large area, The vulnerability of the structure collapse rate CR and the four ground motion parameters (the ground peak acceleration PGA, the ground peak velocity PGV and the maximum acceleration response spectrum PSA and the spectral intensity SI) of the 20 disaster areas is derived. A reasonable and effective method for evaluating the level of structural damage is proposed, which can effectively eliminate the influence of different seismic design levels in different areas. According to the earthquake coefficient kR, which is specified in the earthquake-proof design code of the earthquake in 2008 and the revised edition of the earthquake-proof design code of the earthquake, the CRRs of the building predicted collapse rate based on the ground peak acceleration PGA of the Wenchuan earthquake are calculated. The results show that the predicted collapse rate of the building structure in the above-mentioned area is significantly reduced according to the improved basic acceleration index. In addition to the Octagonal, Qingping and Wolong areas, less than 34 per cent,54 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively, are reduced to less than 30 per cent. (2) A set of theory and method for real-time P and S-wave composite automatic fast recognition for single-station earthquake early warning is put forward. First, the P and S wave are separated by the proposed polarization filtering equation, and then the adjustment coefficient is introduced to improve the conventional STA/ LTA method, and the accuracy of P and S wave is derived in combination with the improved AIC algorithm based on higher order statistics. A representative seismic record is used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, and the automatic pick-up method is compared with the artificial visual pick-up result by the main shock and the aftershock record 1398 of the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. The pick-up rate of the P wave and the S wave is 91% and 85%, respectively. the pick-up deviation is-0.021-0.068 s; 0.025-0.169s, the result shows that the proposed method can be applied to the earthquake early-warning with complex source, propagation path and site condition, and can meet the real-time property in the single-station earthquake early-warning process, The strict requirements of accuracy and efficiency. (3) The theory and method of rapid and accurate determination of the earthquake magnitude suitable for single-station earthquake early warning are put forward. The magnitude prediction method of the proposed displacement square integral parameter ID2 is compared and analyzed with the representative existing prediction method. The correlation between the three characteristic parameters and the magnitude of the earthquake is set up by using the average cycle parameter and the displacement amplitude parameter Pd as the comparison object, and the correlation between the three characteristic parameters and the magnitude of the earthquake is established, and the corresponding earthquake magnitude prediction formula is derived. The result of comparison shows that the proposed ID2 method has the highest confidence in the prediction of the magnitude and has a distinct advantage over other existing methods. In this paper, a study of the magnitude "saturation" of the characteristic parameters in the prediction of large earthquakes is carried out. In this paper, the possibility of using the characteristic parameters of the initial P wave of 3s to predict the main shock of the Wenchuan Ms8.0 is first studied. The results show that the predicted magnitude of the proposed displacement square integral parameter ID2 is more accurate. Furthermore, by using ID2 as the research object, by studying the adjustment time window length parameter, the proposed prediction formula can be used to estimate the magnitude of the large earthquake, and the ID2 method based on the initial P wave of 6 s can reach the ability to predict the 8.0-level earthquake. (4) The theory and method of rapid and accurate ground motion for single-station earthquake early warning are put forward. A ground motion prediction method based on the spectrum intensity SI (3s) of the initial P wave of 3s is proposed, and the three-s spectral intensity SI (3s), the displacement amplitude Pd and the velocity square integral IV2 and the ground vibration parameters, i.e. the peak acceleration PGA, are compared and compared using the aftershock record of the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. The correlation between the peak velocity PGV and the spectral intensity SI is established, the fitting relation between the three characteristic parameters and the three ground motion parameters is established, and the corresponding ground motion prediction formula is derived. By comparing the prediction results of the three methods to the ground motion parameters, the proposed SI (3s) method is used to minimize the standard deviation of the predicted ground vibration peak acceleration PGA, and the other existing methods have higher reliability, so that the early warning mode of the acceleration parameter commonly adopted can be better applied. Based on the analysis and comparison of the main earthquake and the aftershock data of the Wenchuan earthquake, a method for predicting the subsequent ground motion peak of a large earthquake is proposed, the early correction of the early-warning characteristic parameters is carried out by introducing the correction coefficient, and the ground shock "understate" in the earthquake of the large-scale earthquake can be reduced, And the accurate prediction of the continuous process of the large-scale earthquake ground motion is realized. (5) Based on the theory and method of the earthquake early warning based on the strong earthquake observation data, the theoretical ground motion analysis and verification is carried out by the ground motion simulation theory. The concept and route of earthquake early warning research by means of seismic numerical simulation are put forward. The method has good feasibility and rationality, and will provide new research means for earthquake early warning. A typical three-dimensional seismic source model and the underground velocity structure model are constructed by using the three-dimensional seismic theory simulation method, and a wide-band ground motion simulation is carried out based on the whole process of the source-propagation path-field effect and the like to obtain the corresponding theoretical ground vibration waveform record. The relationship between ID2 and magnitude M, and SI (3s) and peak acceleration PGA and peak velocity PGV are established for the proposed earthquake magnitude early-warning characteristic parameters (displacement square integral ID2) and the ground motion early-warning characteristic parameters (3s initial P-wave spectrum intensity SI (3s). The relationship between the three ground motion parameters of the spectrum intensity SI is verified, and the validity and the applicability of the proposed magnitude prediction formula and the three ground motion prediction formulas are verified from the angle of the numerical simulation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：P315

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