本文選題：強(qiáng)震 + 地表破裂��； 參考：《中國地震局工程力學(xué)研究所》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：強(qiáng)震在合適的條件下可產(chǎn)生地表破裂,地表破裂通常會造成嚴(yán)重的災(zāi)害,工程建設(shè)中必須回答建設(shè)場地是否存在地震地表破裂的潛在危險這一問題,因此,地震地表破裂的評估是當(dāng)前巖土工程抗震領(lǐng)域的研究熱點(diǎn)問題之一。開展這一領(lǐng)域的研究工作對城市防災(zāi)規(guī)劃、工程建設(shè)以及探索地震的發(fā)生機(jī)理等都具有重要的理論意義和工程應(yīng)用價值。在地震地表破裂問題的研究中,工程上感興趣的問題有三個方面。第一,發(fā)震斷層發(fā)生強(qiáng)震時,地表產(chǎn)生破裂的可能性有多大;第二,如果產(chǎn)生地表破裂,破裂的長度和寬度多大,覆蓋的范圍有多大;第三,在覆蓋范圍內(nèi)可能產(chǎn)生哪些震害�；卮鹕鲜鋈齻�問題十分困難,這是因?yàn)榈乇砥屏训陌l(fā)生受斷層的活動性、強(qiáng)震的震級、震源深度和場地覆蓋層厚度等多種因素的控制,并且與地震的發(fā)生一樣,地表破裂的產(chǎn)生同樣具有不確定性。一百多年來,學(xué)術(shù)界在這一領(lǐng)域開展了一系列的研究工作,取得了豐富的研究成果。本文在總結(jié)已有研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,圍繞地震地表破裂數(shù)據(jù)庫建設(shè)、地震地表破裂的概率計算方法、破裂規(guī)模的估計和地震地表破裂評估方法的工程應(yīng)用等方面開展了系統(tǒng)的研究工作,取得如下主要成果。1、地震地表破裂的研究綜述。本文系統(tǒng)的總結(jié)、歸納了地震地表破裂這一科學(xué)和技術(shù)問題的研究歷程,評述了當(dāng)前地震地表破裂研究領(lǐng)域的前沿成果,指出了存在的問題和今后在這一領(lǐng)域需要繼續(xù)開展的研究工作。本文的這一部分工作對有興趣開展這一方面研究工作的科技人員有一定的參考意義。2、建立了有工程特色的地震地表破裂數(shù)據(jù)庫。廣泛收集了歷史地震和現(xiàn)代地震資料,對歷史地震資料進(jìn)行了認(rèn)真的辨析和核實(shí),給出了可靠度的標(biāo)識,制定了數(shù)據(jù)錄入標(biāo)準(zhǔn),建立了目前國內(nèi)最為豐富的地表破裂的數(shù)據(jù)資料庫。這一工作為開展地震地表破裂研究工作提供了寶貴的基礎(chǔ)資料。3、本文將Logistic回歸分析方法引入到地震地表破裂評價中。邏輯回歸分析是研究多變量參與、預(yù)測某一事件發(fā)生概率的數(shù)學(xué)分析模型,由于對自變量約束弱化而廣泛應(yīng)用于工程、經(jīng)濟(jì)和醫(yī)學(xué)等領(lǐng)域。本文介紹了邏輯回歸方法的原理和用于地震地表破裂概率預(yù)測的適宜性,確定了評價因子及分級,應(yīng)用SPSS軟件及matlab程序進(jìn)行了數(shù)據(jù)計算和顯著性檢驗(yàn),并用汶川地震和于田地震等實(shí)例證明了這一方法應(yīng)用于地震地表破裂概率評估是合適的。這一工作實(shí)現(xiàn)了地表破裂評估結(jié)果的概率表達(dá)。4、統(tǒng)計給出了地表破裂的幾何參數(shù)與震級的關(guān)系。在現(xiàn)有資料的基礎(chǔ)上,用最小二乘法擬合了地表破裂長度、寬度、水平位錯和垂直位錯與震級的關(guān)系,分別給出了中國大陸、中國西部、中國東部、中國西部走滑斷層、中國西部正斷層和中國西部逆斷層對應(yīng)的統(tǒng)計關(guān)系式,給出了相關(guān)系數(shù)和剩余方差。同時,統(tǒng)計了震級分別為6.0-6.4、6.5-6.9、7.0-7.4、7.5-7.9和8.0-8.5時,不同破裂長度、寬度、水平位錯和垂直位錯量的發(fā)生頻度。上述工作建立了適用于中國大陸地區(qū)的震級與地表破裂參數(shù)關(guān)系式。5、提出了地震地表破裂的工程評估方法。本文在綜合考慮斷層的活動性、發(fā)震斷層的上限震級以及覆蓋層厚度的基礎(chǔ)上,應(yīng)用本文提出的地震地表破裂可能性的概率評估方法和幾何評估方法,給出了地震地表破裂的工程評估方法、危險性分級和工程評價的建議。本文的這一工作推進(jìn)了活斷層研究成果與工程應(yīng)用的密切結(jié)合,為工程場地活斷層工程應(yīng)用提供了新的途徑。本文建立的地震地表破裂數(shù)據(jù)庫為進(jìn)一步深入開展這一領(lǐng)域的研究提供了重要的基礎(chǔ)資料。本文將Logistic分析方法應(yīng)用到地震地表破裂的評價中,實(shí)現(xiàn)了地震地表破裂的概率表達(dá),豐富了地震地表破裂的研究成果。本文提出的地震地表破裂評估的工作流程和統(tǒng)計給出的地震地表破裂幾何參數(shù)表達(dá)式對工程場地地震地表破裂的評價具有一定的工程應(yīng)用價值。
[Abstract]:Strong earthquakes can produce surface rupture under suitable conditions. Surface rupture usually causes serious disasters. In engineering construction, it is necessary to answer the question whether the construction site exists the potential danger of earthquake surface rupture. Therefore, the assessment of earthquake surface rupture is one of the hot issues in the field of earthquake resistance in geotechnical engineering. The research work of the domain has important theoretical significance and engineering application value for the urban disaster prevention planning, the construction of the engineering and the exploration of the mechanism of the earthquake. In the study of the surface rupture of the earthquake, there are three aspects of interest in the project. Second, how large is the length and width of the rupture and how large the cover is in the length and width of the rupture; third, what damage may occur in the coverage area. It is very difficult to answer the above three questions because the occurrence of the surface rupture is affected by the activity of the fault, the magnitude of the strong earthquake, the depth of the earthquake source and the thickness of the ground cover layer. In the past more than 100 years, the academic circle has carried out a series of research work in this field and gained a lot of research results. On the basis of summarizing the existing research results, this paper revolves around the construction of the seismic surface rupture database and the earthquake surface rupture. The systematic research work has been carried out on the probability calculation method, the estimation of the fracture scale and the engineering application of the seismic surface fracture assessment method. The main achievements of the earthquake surface rupture are summarized as follows:.1, the main achievements of the earthquake surface rupture. The existing problems and the future research work in this field are pointed out. This part of this paper has a certain reference significance to the scientific and technical personnel who are interested in carrying out the research work in this field.2. The historical earthquake and the modern seismic data are collected, the historical seismic data are carefully identified and verified, the identification of the reliability is given, the data entry standard is set up, and the most abundant data database of the surface rupture in China is set up. This work provides valuable foundation for the research of ground earthquake surface rupture. .3, in this paper, the Logistic regression analysis method is introduced into the evaluation of earthquake surface rupture. Logistic regression analysis is a mathematical model to study the participation of multivariable and predict the occurrence probability of an event. It is widely used in engineering, economic and medical fields because of the weakening of the constraints of independent variables. This paper introduces the principle of the logic regression method and the principle of the logic regression method. The suitability of the probability prediction for earthquake surface rupture, the evaluation factor and the classification are determined. The data calculation and the significance test are carried out by the SPSS software and the matlab program. The application of the Wenchuan earthquake and Yutian earthquake proves that this method is suitable for the earthquake surface rupture probability evaluation. On the basis of the existing data, the relationship between the length, the width, the horizontal dislocation and the vertical dislocation and the magnitude of the earthquake is fitted on the basis of the existing data, and the strike slip faults in China, Western China, Eastern China and Western China are given respectively by using the least square method on the basis of the existing data. The correlation coefficient of the normal fault in Western China and the reverse fault in Western China, the correlation coefficient and the residual variance are given. At the same time, the occurrence frequency of the rupture length, width, horizontal dislocation and vertical dislocation are calculated when the magnitude of the earthquake is 6.0-6.4,6.5-6.9,7.0-7.4,7.5-7.9 and 8.0-8.5 respectively. In this paper, based on the comprehensive consideration of the activity of the fault, the upper magnitude of the earthquake fault and the thickness of the cover layer, the probability evaluation method and the geometric evaluation method proposed in this paper are given in this paper, based on the relationship between the magnitude of the area and the parameters of the surface rupture parameters.5. The engineering evaluation method of seismic surface rupture, the classification of risk and the suggestion of engineering evaluation. This work has promoted the close combination of the research results of active faults and the application of the engineering, and provided a new way for the application of the active fault engineering in the engineering site. The research provides important basic data. In this paper, the Logistic analysis method is applied to the evaluation of the earthquake surface rupture, and the probability expression of the earthquake surface rupture is realized. The research results of the earthquake surface rupture are enriched. The work flow of the seismic surface fracture assessment and the geometric parameters of the earthquake surface rupture given in this paper are presented. The expression has certain engineering application value for the evaluation of earthquake ground surface ruptures in engineering sites.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地震局工程力學(xué)研究所
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：P315
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本文編號：1790907