本文關(guān)鍵詞：復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)視角的產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)研究　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)通常表現(xiàn)為總產(chǎn)出、總收入和總就業(yè)的波動(dòng),作為一種破壞性極強(qiáng)的常見(jiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行現(xiàn)象,其來(lái)源與擴(kuò)散是學(xué)術(shù)界和決策部門(mén)長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題。近些年來(lái)多位學(xué)者研究發(fā)現(xiàn),經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)除總供給、總需求等宏觀層面來(lái)源外,還具有中微觀層面來(lái)源。特別的,本世紀(jì)初起源于次貸危機(jī)的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的爆發(fā)及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的形成,把研究焦點(diǎn)進(jìn)一步拉向中觀產(chǎn)業(yè)層面。產(chǎn)業(yè)因各類(lèi)沖擊導(dǎo)致的產(chǎn)出量的波動(dòng)可能會(huì)因?yàn)楣┬桕P(guān)系擴(kuò)散到上下游產(chǎn)業(yè),引起上下游產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)出波動(dòng),并在單區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)內(nèi)和多區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)間進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)散,導(dǎo)致單區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)總產(chǎn)出的波動(dòng)和多區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)間總產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)的協(xié)動(dòng)和相互影響。本文把產(chǎn)業(yè)因內(nèi)外部沖擊導(dǎo)致的產(chǎn)出量的波動(dòng)定義為產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)。產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)在單區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)中擴(kuò)散,導(dǎo)致的單區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)總產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)的大小,受經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)各產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響。經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)中若存在為多數(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)提供中間投入的產(chǎn)業(yè)—供應(yīng)樞紐,或需要經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)中多數(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)為其提供中間投入的產(chǎn)業(yè)—需求樞紐,統(tǒng)稱(chēng)為樞紐產(chǎn)業(yè),則樞紐產(chǎn)業(yè)會(huì)因?yàn)榫钟颉疤P(guān)聯(lián)”把產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)傳播到大多數(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè),并階階擴(kuò)散導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)總產(chǎn)出的波動(dòng)。本文把“產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)因產(chǎn)業(yè)間普遍存在的供需關(guān)聯(lián)在單區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)內(nèi)擴(kuò)散,導(dǎo)致了單區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)總產(chǎn)出的波動(dòng)”定義為單區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)。在全球化背景下,跨國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)往來(lái)使得產(chǎn)業(yè)間供需關(guān)聯(lián)跨越了地域邊界。樞紐產(chǎn)業(yè)不僅能夠把產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)廣泛擴(kuò)散到所在區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)各產(chǎn)業(yè),導(dǎo)致所在區(qū)域的總產(chǎn)出波動(dòng),而且能夠把產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)傳播擴(kuò)散到其他區(qū)域各產(chǎn)業(yè),引起其他區(qū)域的總產(chǎn)出波動(dòng),宏觀表現(xiàn)為多區(qū)域間存在總產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)的相互影響。本文把“因?yàn)榭鐓^(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)的存在,某一區(qū)域的產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)在多區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)間傳播擴(kuò)散,導(dǎo)致多區(qū)域間存在總產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)強(qiáng)度不同的相互影響,并由此導(dǎo)致各區(qū)域在多區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)大系統(tǒng)中地位和作用的差異”定義為多區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)。理論界一般從三個(gè)不同視角研究產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)及與之相關(guān)的中觀部門(mén)沖擊的傳播擴(kuò)散,分別為投入產(chǎn)出視角、宏觀分析框架和產(chǎn)業(yè)復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)視角。投入產(chǎn)出方法是研究產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散、部門(mén)沖擊傳播的傳統(tǒng)方法,主要是基于動(dòng)態(tài)投入產(chǎn)出模型(IO模型),通過(guò)計(jì)算影響力系數(shù)、感應(yīng)度系數(shù)等指標(biāo),衡量產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的感應(yīng)程度和帶動(dòng)程度,研究某一產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)對(duì)其他產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)出及總產(chǎn)出的影響；以及基于全局向量自回歸模型(GVAR模型),分析沖擊的傳導(dǎo)路徑及沖擊對(duì)價(jià)格、產(chǎn)出等的影響等。采用宏觀分析框架分析沖擊的傳播主要是基于動(dòng)態(tài)隨機(jī)一般均衡模型(DSGE)的研究。動(dòng)態(tài)隨機(jī)一般均衡模型最早由Kydland 和 Prescott于1982年在《Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations》一文提出。該模型用于在完全競(jìng)爭(zhēng)市場(chǎng)假設(shè)下,在一般均衡框架內(nèi),以及市場(chǎng)參與者理性預(yù)期和跨期最優(yōu)選擇下,研究實(shí)際沖擊(如技術(shù)沖擊、貨幣政策沖擊、偏好沖擊)如何在經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部傳導(dǎo)以及如何導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng),搭建起了溝通宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)理論和微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)理論的橋梁,成為國(guó)際上主流的宏觀分析框架。這兩類(lèi)視角雖然從部門(mén)或產(chǎn)業(yè)層面研究了波動(dòng)或沖擊的傳播路徑、波動(dòng)或沖擊對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響,但沒(méi)能從結(jié)構(gòu)層面揭示波動(dòng)或沖擊傳播擴(kuò)散的內(nèi)在機(jī)理與根本動(dòng)力。而現(xiàn)有研究(如Acemglu等,2012)已經(jīng)證明了從產(chǎn)業(yè)復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)視角研究波動(dòng)或沖擊在經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)中傳播擴(kuò)散的有效性,能夠從產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)結(jié)構(gòu)層面解釋產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)或沖擊何以能夠在經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)中擴(kuò)散并導(dǎo)致總產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)的,但僅是限于單區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的研究。對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)在區(qū)域間擴(kuò)散導(dǎo)致的多區(qū)域間總產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)的傳播、協(xié)動(dòng)性及相互影響等的研究,多是基于影響因素或宏觀變量對(duì)兩個(gè)國(guó)家(地區(qū))的經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)進(jìn)行相關(guān)性分析,未能量化多區(qū)域間經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)相互影響的強(qiáng)度,也不能量化某一區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定對(duì)其他區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定和發(fā)展的意義與作用。因此,本文采用產(chǎn)業(yè)復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)視角對(duì)單區(qū)域和多區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)進(jìn)行研究,并把重心放在多區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)研究上,以從結(jié)構(gòu)層面揭示單區(qū)域總產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)的形成及關(guān)鍵影響因素,量化多區(qū)域間總產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)相互影響的強(qiáng)度,及各區(qū)域在多區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)大系統(tǒng)中的地位和作用。經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)各產(chǎn)業(yè)類(lèi)別、性質(zhì)不同,在經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)中的地位和作用也各異,因技術(shù)、經(jīng)濟(jì)及社會(huì)等方面因素的影響,產(chǎn)業(yè)間存在密切而復(fù)雜的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系,且產(chǎn)業(yè)間關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系也在發(fā)生著深刻而復(fù)雜的變化,從而形成產(chǎn)業(yè)復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò),本文題目中所謂的復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò),即指產(chǎn)業(yè)復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò),簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)為產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)。產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)各節(jié)點(diǎn)重要性不同,通常用各類(lèi)中心性衡量,如度中心性、特征向量中心性、接近中心性、介數(shù)中心性等。樞紐產(chǎn)業(yè)與度中心性較大的產(chǎn)業(yè)相對(duì)應(yīng),其存在導(dǎo)致了度(度中心性)分布所刻畫(huà)的產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)的非對(duì)稱(chēng)性,反映了產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的局域關(guān)聯(lián)特征,本文把由度分布所刻畫(huà)的產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)定義為產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu)。特征向量中心性、接近中心性、介數(shù)中心性等都是基于節(jié)點(diǎn)度值形成的反映節(jié)點(diǎn)重要性的不同指標(biāo)。其中,特征向量中心性同樣描述了節(jié)點(diǎn)的局域關(guān)聯(lián)特征,接近中心性與介數(shù)中心性反映了節(jié)點(diǎn)更廣范圍的關(guān)聯(lián),而描述節(jié)點(diǎn)全局關(guān)聯(lián)特征的是產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)k-殼結(jié)構(gòu)�；趉-殼結(jié)構(gòu)計(jì)算的節(jié)點(diǎn)k-殼熵,反映了產(chǎn)業(yè)節(jié)點(diǎn)多樣化關(guān)聯(lián)到各k-殼層的程度,其值越大,表明產(chǎn)業(yè)擴(kuò)散波動(dòng)的能力越強(qiáng)。因此,本文第3章基于Acemoglu等總產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)分析框架,考慮節(jié)點(diǎn)局域關(guān)聯(lián)特征,基于產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu),分析單區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)的形成機(jī)理；構(gòu)建單區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu)模型,并采用中國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)例分析；把產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)方法與GRA方法相結(jié)合,提出一類(lèi)研究產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu)影響產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)的新方法—NSPG法,并采用中國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)截面數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)例分析。基于產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu)的單區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)研究表明,產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu)的非對(duì)稱(chēng)性影響著單區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)的大小,且其非對(duì)稱(chēng)程度越大,單區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)也越大。單區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)的產(chǎn)生能夠解釋某一區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的爆發(fā),如本世紀(jì)初美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的爆發(fā)。其研究結(jié)論對(duì)于某一國(guó)家(地區(qū))通過(guò)產(chǎn)業(yè)政策制定,維護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定,促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,具有重要意義�？鐓^(qū)域的產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)形成區(qū)域間產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò),供應(yīng)樞紐的存在導(dǎo)致了區(qū)域間產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu)的非對(duì)稱(chēng)性,非對(duì)稱(chēng)的區(qū)域間產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu)影響著產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)在多區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)間的擴(kuò)散。本文第4章在單區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)研究基礎(chǔ)上,基于區(qū)域間產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)在多區(qū)域間擴(kuò)散的影響,從局域關(guān)聯(lián)層面分析多區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)的產(chǎn)生機(jī)理；根據(jù)與各區(qū)域供應(yīng)樞紐存在一階直接前向關(guān)聯(lián)的其他區(qū)域的產(chǎn)業(yè)和,構(gòu)造以區(qū)域?yàn)楣?jié)點(diǎn)的、反映區(qū)域間總產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)相互影響的多區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)基礎(chǔ)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,即區(qū)域賦權(quán)影響基礎(chǔ)網(wǎng)絡(luò)；選定度關(guān)聯(lián)結(jié)構(gòu)、基礎(chǔ)關(guān)聯(lián)結(jié)構(gòu)和k-核結(jié)構(gòu)等維度,從局域關(guān)聯(lián)層面量化區(qū)域間總產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)相互影響的強(qiáng)度,及各區(qū)域在多區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)中的地位和作用。產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu)反映了產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的局域關(guān)聯(lián)特征,產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)k-殼結(jié)構(gòu)反映了產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的全局關(guān)聯(lián)特征。k-殼熵較大的節(jié)點(diǎn)能夠關(guān)聯(lián)到更多的殼,從而k-殼熵較大的產(chǎn)業(yè)—統(tǒng)治產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)能夠傳播擴(kuò)散到更多殼,引起更多產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)。基于此,第5章考慮區(qū)域間產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)全局關(guān)聯(lián)特征,根據(jù)k-殼結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)在多區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)間擴(kuò)散的影響,從全局關(guān)聯(lián)層面分析多區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)的產(chǎn)生機(jī)理；根據(jù)與各區(qū)域統(tǒng)治產(chǎn)業(yè)存在一階直接關(guān)聯(lián)的其他區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)的k-殼和,構(gòu)造以各區(qū)域?yàn)楣?jié)點(diǎn)的、反映區(qū)域間總產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)相互影響的多區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)k-殼網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,即區(qū)域賦權(quán)影響k-殼網(wǎng)絡(luò)；選定度關(guān)聯(lián)結(jié)構(gòu)、基礎(chǔ)關(guān)聯(lián)結(jié)構(gòu)和k-核結(jié)構(gòu)等維度,從全局關(guān)聯(lián)層面量化區(qū)域問(wèn)總產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)相互影響的強(qiáng)度,及各區(qū)域因供求不同導(dǎo)致的在多區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)大系統(tǒng)中地位和作用的差異,研究多區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)k-殼結(jié)構(gòu)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)。進(jìn)一步的,第6章綜合考慮局域關(guān)聯(lián)與全局關(guān)聯(lián)對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)在多區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)間擴(kuò)散的影響,根據(jù)度與k一殼熵綜合值大小定義強(qiáng)擴(kuò)散產(chǎn)業(yè),根據(jù)與各區(qū)域強(qiáng)擴(kuò)散產(chǎn)業(yè)存在一階直接關(guān)聯(lián)的其他區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)k-殼和,構(gòu)建了以各區(qū)域?yàn)楣?jié)點(diǎn)的、反映區(qū)域間總產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)相互影響的多區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)綜合網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,即區(qū)域賦權(quán)影響綜合網(wǎng)絡(luò)；依然選擇度關(guān)聯(lián)結(jié)構(gòu)、基礎(chǔ)關(guān)聯(lián)結(jié)構(gòu)和k-核結(jié)構(gòu)等維度,綜合局域關(guān)聯(lián)和全局關(guān)聯(lián)全面客觀量化區(qū)域間總產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)相互影響的強(qiáng)度,及各區(qū)域因供求不同導(dǎo)致的在多區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)大系統(tǒng)中的不同地位和作用,研究多區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)綜合結(jié)構(gòu)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)。第4、5、6章均采用由日本貿(mào)易振興機(jī)構(gòu)亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所(IDE-JETRO)官網(wǎng)2013年發(fā)布的最新一期亞洲國(guó)際投入產(chǎn)出表(貿(mào)易表)為共同數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)多區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)、k-殼結(jié)構(gòu)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)和綜合結(jié)構(gòu)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)進(jìn)行實(shí)例分析。計(jì)算結(jié)果表明,區(qū)域賦權(quán)影響基礎(chǔ)網(wǎng)絡(luò)、區(qū)域賦權(quán)影響k一殼網(wǎng)絡(luò)和區(qū)域賦權(quán)影響綜合網(wǎng)絡(luò)雖然是基于不同的產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散機(jī)理構(gòu)建,但其量化的國(guó)家(地區(qū))間總產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)相互影響的強(qiáng)度卻相差不大,各國(guó)(地區(qū))在十國(guó)(地區(qū))經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)中的地位和作用也沒(méi)有顯著改變,從而證明了基于復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)視角研究多區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)的有效性。利于各國(guó)（地區(qū)）從產(chǎn)業(yè)政策及貿(mào)易政策的制定等方面,尋找減少經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)、維護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定、促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的路徑,形成區(qū)域價(jià)值鏈或全球價(jià)值鏈,提高國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力和比較優(yōu)勢(shì)。綜上所述,本文基于產(chǎn)業(yè)復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)視角,考慮產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)不同結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)在經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)內(nèi)和經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)間擴(kuò)散的影響,研究單區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)和多區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)擴(kuò)散效應(yīng),從結(jié)構(gòu)層面揭示了總產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)產(chǎn)生及擴(kuò)散的根源,強(qiáng)調(diào)了產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)單區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)總產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)的影響,量化了多區(qū)域間總產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)相互影響的強(qiáng)度,及各區(qū)域在多區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)中的不同地位和作用；基于產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)兩類(lèi)結(jié)構(gòu),分析產(chǎn)業(yè)波動(dòng)在多區(qū)域間傳播擴(kuò)散的機(jī)理,根據(jù)區(qū)域間產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò),構(gòu)建三類(lèi)區(qū)域賦權(quán)影響網(wǎng)絡(luò),實(shí)現(xiàn)了產(chǎn)業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)與區(qū)域網(wǎng)絡(luò)的耦合,體現(xiàn)了產(chǎn)業(yè)-區(qū)域二層超網(wǎng)絡(luò)的原理與思想。因此,本文在機(jī)理分析、模型構(gòu)建、模型思想及指標(biāo)選取等方面具有創(chuàng)新性,相關(guān)研究結(jié)論對(duì)于從中觀產(chǎn)業(yè)層面分析經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的產(chǎn)生、擴(kuò)散及區(qū)域間經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的相互影響,制定促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定和發(fā)展的政策,構(gòu)建區(qū)域共創(chuàng)價(jià)值鏈(網(wǎng)),提高國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力及比較優(yōu)勢(shì)等方面具有重要的理論及現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。
[Abstract]:Economic fluctuation is often in the form of total output, total income and total employment volatility, as one of the most devastating common economic phenomenon, its origin and diffusion is a hot issue in academic circles and government departments concerned for a long time. In recent years, many scholars have found that economic fluctuations in the total supply, total demand of macro level the source, also has a micro level source. In particular, the formation of the economic crisis in the United States at the beginning of this century originated in the subprime mortgage crisis erupted and global economic fluctuations, the focus of the study farther to the industry level. Industrial output due to various impact caused by fluctuations may be because the relationship between supply and demand spread to the downstream industry, due to the fluctuation of output of downstream industries, and further spread in a single regional economic system and regional economic system, resulting in the total output of single regional economic system and regional fluctuations The economic system between the total output volatility co movement and interaction. In this paper, the definition of the output fluctuation industry due to internal and external shocks caused by industrial fluctuations. Diffusion in single industry fluctuations in regional economic system, the total output of a single regional economic system leads to the volatility of the size, affected by the economic system of each industry association structure. Provide input to the industry if there is supply hub middle most industries in the economic system, or the needs of the majority of the industrial and economic system to provide industry demand hub of intermediate inputs, collectively referred to as the hub of industry, is the industrial hub because of local "too interconnected" to the industry fluctuation spread to most industries, resulting in a total order and order diffusion the output of economic system fluctuations. In this paper the "supply and demand diffusion related industry fluctuations due to the inter industry exists in a single regional economic system, resulting in the total output of a single regional economic system Volatility is defined as the single diffusion industry fluctuation regional effect. Under the background of globalization, transnational economic exchanges so that the supply and demand among related industries across geographical boundaries. The industrial hub industry can not only spread to the industry fluctuations in the regional economy system, causing the total output fluctuation region, but also the industry fluctuation spread to other areas the industry, total output volatility caused by other regions, the macro performance is mutual influence there is fluctuation in total output more inter regional. The inter regional industrial association "because the existence of industry fluctuation of a certain region spread in multi regional economic system, leading to the existence of mutual influence of fluctuation of total output intensity of different multi regional, which leads to differences and function of the regional status in regional economic system is defined as a multi regional industrial diffusion wave effect theory. It is spread from three different perspectives of industrial fluctuation and the related departments of the medium impact diffusion, respectively input-output perspective, macro analysis framework and industrial complex network perspective. The input-output method is the study of industrial fluctuation diffusion, the traditional method is the main department shock propagation, based on dynamic input-output model (IO model) through the calculation, the influence coefficient and sensitivity coefficient index, measure the degree of induction between industries and promote the degree of effect of an industry fluctuation to other industrial output and output; and the vector autoregressive model based (GVAR model), analysis of the impact of the transmission path and the impact on prices, output effect the spread of the macro analysis framework. Impact analysis is mainly based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGE). The research of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model pioneered by Kydland and Prescott is presented. The model is used in a perfectly competitive market assumption, in general equilibrium framework, and market participants are rational expectations and intertemporal optimal choice, of real shocks (such as technology shocks, monetary policy shocks, preference shock) in the internal conduction of economic system and how to cause economic fluctuation, build a bridge between macro economic theory and microeconomic theory, a macro analysis framework of the international mainstream. These two kinds of view although from the department or industry level of fluctuations or shock propagation path fluctuations or impact on macro economy, internal mechanism and basic power but it can't reveal fluctuations or shock spread. But the existing research (Acemglu, 2012) has proved that the research of complex network industry fluctuations from the angle of view The effectiveness or impact spread in the economic system, from the industrial correlation structure level to explain industrial fluctuations or impact in the economic system how to spread and cause output fluctuations, but is only limited to the study of single regional economic system. Communication for multi regional industrial fluctuations in the area is linked to the spread of total output volatility the study of CO movement and influence each other, mostly influence factors and macroeconomic variables in two countries (regions) based on correlation analysis of economic fluctuation, multi regional economic fluctuations failed to quantify the interaction strength, can't quantify a regional economic stability to other regional economic stability and development and significance the role of the industry. Therefore, the complex network perspective of single domain and multi regional industry volatility diffusion effect was studied, and focus on multi regional industry volatility diffusion effect. Study on the factors influencing the formation and the key to reveal the single regional total output fluctuations from the structural level, quantitative regional total output volatility interaction strength, position and role in regional and multi regional economic system. The industrial economic system category, nature, position and function in the economic system is also different, due to technical, economic and social effects of the factors such as the existence of the relationship between close and complex inter industry and inter Industry Association is also undergoing profound and complex changes, thus forming the so-called industrial complex network, complex network the thesis topic, namely industrial complex network, referred to as the industrial network the industrial network. The importance of each node is different, usually measured by various centers, such as the degree centrality, eigenvector centrality, closeness centrality and betweenness centrality. Hub industry and larger degree of industrial disposition Correspondingly, the resulting degree (degree centrality) asymmetric distribution of industry network structure depicted, reflect the local characteristics of the network industry association, the industry network structure definition is characterized by the degree distribution for the industrial network infrastructure. Eigenvector centrality, closeness centrality, betweenness center such are different degree reflect the formation of the importance of nodes based on the index. The feature vector center also describes the characteristics of the node's local association, close centrality and betweenness centrality of nodes in a wide range of correlation, and global correlation features describing the node is the industrial network k- shell structure. Node k- shell shell structure based on k- entropy calculation, reflect the industry association to the diversification of nodes of k- shell, the larger the value showed that the ability of industry diffusion fluctuation is stronger. Therefore, in the third chapter, based on the total Acemoglu Output volatility analysis framework, considering the local association characteristics, industrial network infrastructure based on the analysis of single regional industrial fluctuation diffusion effect formation mechanism; construction of single regional industrial fluctuation diffusion effect model, and an example is analyzed by using time series data Chinese industrial network; combining the method of industrial network and GRA method, a kind of study on the effect of NSPG network infrastructure industry - a new method of industrial fluctuation diffusion effect method, and an example is analyzed by China industrial network section data. Single regional industrial fluctuation industrial infrastructure diffusion effect research shows that based on the non symmetry of the industrial network infrastructure affects the single regional industrial volatility diffusion effect and the size. The greater the degree of asymmetry, single regional economic system of industrial fluctuation diffusion effect is greater. The single regional industry volatility diffusion effect Should have to explain a regional economic crisis broke out, such as the beginning of this century the United States economic crisis. The research results for a country (region) through industrial policy, maintain economic stability, promote economic development, which is of great significance. The industry association across the region the formation of regional industrial network, supply hub the regional industrial network infrastructure asymmetry, asymmetric regional industrial network infrastructure affects the diffusion industry fluctuations in multi regional economic system. In the fourth chapter, based on dynamic diffusion effects of single wave of regional industry, industrial network based on the diffusion structure industry fluctuations in multi area inter the region based on the local level from the association analysis of the generation mechanism of multi regional industrial fluctuation diffusion effect; and according to the regional supply hub is directly related to the order Other regional industrial structure and, in the region of nodes, reflects the regional industrial fluctuation regional total output volatility interaction diffusion effect based network model, namely regional effects based weighting network; selected correlation structure, basic structure and associated k- nuclear structure dimension, from the local level of regional total output quantitative association the fluctuation of the interaction strength, position and role in regional and regional economic system. The industrial network infrastructure, reflect the local characteristics of industrial association network, industrial network k- shell structure reflects the industrial network global associated features of.K- shell large entropy node can be correlated to more and larger shell shell, k- entropy the industry rule of industrial output fluctuation can spread to more shell, caused by the fluctuation of output more industry. Based on this, the fifth chapter considers the Regional Industry Association special global network Effect of k- syndrome, according to the shell structure of diffusion industry fluctuations in multi regional economic system, from the overall level of correlation analysis of the generation mechanism of multi regional industrial fluctuation diffusion effect; according to other regional industrial order is directly related with the regional rule of industry in the k- shell and the structure, with the regional nodes, reflect multi regional industrial fluctuation regional total output volatility interaction diffusion effect of k- shell network model, namely regional weighting effect of k- shell network; the selected correlation structure, basic structure and associated k- nuclear structure dimension, from the overall level of regional fluctuations associated amount of total output interaction strength difference and regional status in the regional economic system and the role of supply and demand caused by different research, multi regional industrial fluctuations k- shell structure diffusion effect. Further, the sixth chapter considering local and Global Association of Association Effect of diffusion industry fluctuations in multi regional economic system, according to the degree of K and a shell value diffusion entropy comprehensive definition of strong industry, in accordance with the regional industry there is a strong diffusion order directly related to other regional industrial k- shell and, to build the regional nodes, reflects the regional industrial fluctuations in the region between the total output volatility interaction diffusion effect comprehensive network model, namely regional weighting effect of comprehensive network; still choose correlation structure, basic structure and associated k- nuclear structure dimension, comprehensive local association and the global association objectively quantifying regional total output volatility interaction strength, and various regions due to different status and role in the region the economic system of supply and demand in different causes, research on regional industrial structure fluctuation comprehensive diffusion effect. Chapter 4,5,6 are used by the Japanese trade development of Asian economic research institutions (ID E-JETRO) official website in 2013 released the latest Asian international input output table (trade table) for common data on regional industrial structure fluctuation based diffusion effect, k- shell structure diffusion effect and comprehensive structure diffusion effect is analyzed. The calculation results show that the effect of regional empowerment based network, regional weighting effect of K shell influence of weighting network and regional integrated network is different industry fluctuation diffusion mechanism based on, but its quantitative country (region) between the total output volatility interaction strength is less, all countries (regions) in ten countries (regions) the status and role of the economic system is not

【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F224;F113
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本文編號(hào)：1381143

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