本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于多套再分析資料的全球蒸發(fā)量時空變化特征及其成因研究　出處：《蘭州大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 蒸發(fā) 再分析資料 氣候變暖 實(shí)際蒸散發(fā) 蒸發(fā)皿蒸發(fā)量 能量和水分循環(huán) MV-EOF分解

【摘要】：蒸發(fā)是全球能量和水循環(huán)的關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié),也是決定各地區(qū)天氣與氣候狀況的重要因子。蒸發(fā)作為地球系統(tǒng)水分消耗的主要方式,對氣候變化的響應(yīng)十分敏感,是地球系統(tǒng)中最活躍的因子之一。但是由于缺少蒸發(fā)量的實(shí)況觀測數(shù)據(jù),并且氣候模式對水循環(huán)的模擬水平也非常有限,目前對于全球蒸發(fā)量時空變化的趨勢、幅度和區(qū)域分布等依然不能給出明確結(jié)論。再分析資料的不斷發(fā)展為解決上述問題提供了新的途徑。本論文基于目前使用較為廣泛的多套再分析資料,研究了全球蒸發(fā)量的時空變化特征和成因,同時對比分析了各套資料的異同點(diǎn),探討了各套資料在不同時段、不同地區(qū)的適用性。主要結(jié)論概括如下:(1)全球蒸發(fā)量的空間分布具有明顯的海陸、經(jīng)向分布差異,并且同緯度陸地上高海拔地區(qū)蒸發(fā)量小于低海拔地區(qū)。整體而言,MERRA與NCEP-R2資料能夠同時較好地反映出全球蒸發(fā)量的時空變化特征,具有很好的代表性;此外,CFSR與ERA-40資料也可以較好地刻畫出陸地蒸發(fā)量的變化特點(diǎn),而ERA-Interim、NCEP-R1、OAFlux、HOAPS等資料比較適用于對海洋蒸發(fā)量的研究。各套資料陸地與海洋平均蒸發(fā)量在1958~1978年基本都呈現(xiàn)顯著的線性減少趨勢,而在1979~2011年時間段內(nèi)大多是線性增加的,其中海洋地區(qū)更加顯著。(2)中國地區(qū)實(shí)際蒸散發(fā)整體上呈現(xiàn)自東南沿海向西北內(nèi)陸地區(qū)遞減的形勢,只是五套再分析資料在西北至青藏高原西北部和東南沿海等地區(qū)差別較大。實(shí)際蒸散發(fā)的逐年變化也不完全相同,其中NCEP-R2與JRA-55比較一致,均有顯著地線性增加趨勢,MERRA與ERA-Interim更為接近,而NCEP-R1偏差較大。年內(nèi)實(shí)際蒸散發(fā)約有43%集中在夏季,季節(jié)變化明顯。中國不同地區(qū)實(shí)際蒸散發(fā)和蒸發(fā)皿蒸發(fā)的關(guān)系有明顯差異,互補(bǔ)理論多適用于非濕潤地區(qū),而正比假設(shè)理論多適用于偏濕潤地區(qū),即在水分控制條件下存在互補(bǔ)關(guān)系,在能量控制條件下存在正比關(guān)系。(3)1979~2013年全球陸地實(shí)際蒸散發(fā)的變化具有非常明顯的區(qū)域性特征,其中在氣候較為濕潤的地區(qū)實(shí)際蒸散發(fā)有明顯的線性增加趨勢,而在相對干旱的地區(qū)實(shí)際蒸散發(fā)的增加趨勢則主要集中在21世紀(jì)。極端干旱區(qū)、干旱區(qū)、半干旱區(qū)、半濕潤干旱區(qū)和半干旱濕潤區(qū)等實(shí)際蒸散發(fā)的變化主要與降水量有關(guān),而半濕潤區(qū)、濕潤區(qū)和極寒區(qū)實(shí)際蒸散發(fā)的增加是氣候變暖背景下降水量與潛在蒸散發(fā)變化共同作用的結(jié)果,只是潛在蒸散發(fā)的作用要相對更大。從能量和水分循環(huán)的角度,NCEP-R2與Budyko模型估算結(jié)果最為一致,可信度最高,MERRA次之,ERA-Interim和JRA-55誤差相對較大,尤其是在極端濕潤區(qū)不確定性較高。(4)1979~2001年熱帶海洋蒸發(fā)量呈現(xiàn)顯著地線性增加趨勢,其中以1991~1998年增加幅度最大,之后則基本保持穩(wěn)定,近幾年有逐漸下降的趨勢。根據(jù)1979~2013年六套再分析資料熱帶海洋蒸發(fā)量MV-EOF分解結(jié)果,第一模態(tài)主要與氣候變化有關(guān),而第二模態(tài)、第三模態(tài)和第四模態(tài)都與ENSO循環(huán)緊密相關(guān)。從海表溫度(SST)異常的角度研究熱帶海洋蒸發(fā)量變化的成因大致有兩種途徑,其一是當(dāng)SST異常偏高時,海平面氣壓(SLP)會異常偏低,這將有利于水汽的輻合,進(jìn)而增加當(dāng)?shù)卮髿馑?對蒸發(fā)過程有抑制作用;另外一種途徑是SST異常偏高會直接造成當(dāng)?shù)氐乇須鉁?SAT)偏高,進(jìn)而促使大氣持水能力增強(qiáng),有利于蒸發(fā)量增加。
[Abstract]:Evaporation is the key link in the global energy and water cycle, an important factor is decided on the weather and climate conditions in different regions. The main way of evaporation of the earth system of water consumption, in response to climate change is very sensitive, is one of the most active factor in the earth system. But due to the lack of observation data of evaporation, and climate model simulation of the horizontal water cycle is also very limited, the current trend for evaporation of temporal and spatial changes of global and regional distribution range, still can not give a clear conclusion. The continuous development of reanalysis data provides a new way to solve the above problems. This paper is widely used at present several sets of reanalysis data based on research the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and causes of global evaporation, and comparative analysis of the data sets of the similarities and differences, discusses the set of data in different time, suitable for different regions . the main results are as follows: (1) global evaporation are found in the spatial distribution of land and sea, meridional distribution differences, and the same amount of evaporation in high altitude area on land is less than that of the low altitude latitude. Overall, the MERRA and NCEP-R2 data can reflect the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of global evaporation, representative very good; in addition, the CFSR and ERA-40 data can depict the changes of evaporation and land ERA-Interim, NCEP-R1, OAFlux, HOAPS and other materials is suitable for the research of ocean evaporation. Each set of data of land and sea average evaporation in 1958~1978 years showed significant linear decreasing trend. However, in 1979~2011 years time mostly increase linearly, while the ocean area is more significant. (2) Chinese area showing the overall actual evapotranspiration decreases from the southeast coast to the northwest inland region shape Potential, only five sets of reanalysis data differences in the northwest to the northwest of the Tibetan Plateau and southeast coastal areas. Actual evaporation changes year by year distributed is not exactly the same, where NCEP-R2 and JRA-55 are consistent, increased significantly with MERRA linear, ERA-Interim is more close to that of NCEP-R1 years on the actual large deviations. The evapotranspiration of about 43% concentrated in the summer, seasonal changes. The relationship between different regions Chinese actual evapotranspiration and pan evaporation are significantly different, complementary theory is suitable for the non humid regions, and is more applicable to the hypothesis of partial wet area, that there is a complementary relationship in the water control condition, there is positive relation the energy control conditions. (3) the Global Land Evapotranspiration changes 1979~2013 has very obvious regional characteristics, the climate is more humid regions in actual evapotranspiration has obvious line Of increasing trend, while in the relatively arid regions of actual evapotranspiration increased is mainly concentrated in the arid region in twenty-first Century. In extreme arid area, semi-arid area, arid area, changes of semi humid and semi humid areas such as drought of actual evapotranspiration is mainly related to precipitation, and semi humid, wet and very cold the actual evapotranspiration increased climate warming decreased water interaction and potential evaporation changes from the results, only the potential evapotranspiration effect is relatively greater. From the angle of the energy and water cycle, NCEP-R2 and Budyko model estimation results most, the credibility of the highest, followed by MERRA, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, the error is relatively large in particular, the uncertainty in the extreme high humid area. (4) 1979~2001 in the tropical ocean evaporation showed a significant linear increase trend, the largest increase in 1991~1998, then the stable, There is a gradual downward trend in recent years. According to 1979~2013 six year reanalysis data of tropical ocean evaporation MV-EOF decomposition results, the first mode is mainly related to climate change, while the second mode, third mode and the fourth mode are closely related with ENSO. From the sea surface temperature (SST) causes abnormal changes of the tropical ocean evaporation there are basically two ways, one is when the SST is abnormally high, the sea level pressure (SLP) will be extremely low, which facilitates vapor convergence, thus increasing the water vapor content in the atmosphere is inhibited by the local evaporation process; the other way is abnormally high SST will be the direct result of local surface high temperature (SAT), so as to enhance the water holding capacity of the atmosphere, conducive to increased evaporation.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：P426.2

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 包云;李曉兵;李超;黃玲梅;于靜;;1961-2007年內(nèi)蒙古氣溫時空變化特征分析[J];干旱區(qū)資源與環(huán)境;2010年12期

2 李廣霞;劉雪鋒;李軍林;王明華;戴廷仁;;遼寧省氣溫與降水時空變化特征分析[J];安徽農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué);2010年32期

3 宋連春;近40年我國氣溫時空變化特征[J];應(yīng)用氣象學(xué)報;1994年01期

4 楊智;劉志剛;李娟;;云南省地氣溫差時空變化特征分析[J];云南大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版);2010年S1期

5 尹文有;田文壽;琚建華;;西南地區(qū)不同地形臺階氣溫時空變化特征[J];氣候變化研究進(jìn)展;2010年06期

6 黃琰;封國林;董文杰;;近50年中國氣溫、降水極值分區(qū)的時空變化特征[J];氣象學(xué)報;2011年01期

7 嚴(yán)登華;袁U，

本文編號：1358850