內(nèi)蒙古自治區(qū)碳排放峰值預(yù)測及綜合控制策略研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-16 14:10
【摘要】：眾所周知,近三四十年來,溫室氣體排放加劇,全球范圍內(nèi)氣候變暖已經(jīng)成為影響人類可未來持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要因素。從2011年起,我國政府多次對外界發(fā)文公布我國碳排放控制目標(biāo),表明了我國政府解決溫室氣體排放問題,堅(jiān)決走節(jié)能減排、低碳可持續(xù)發(fā)展的道路的決心。內(nèi)蒙古作為中國實(shí)行少數(shù)民族區(qū)域自治的地方,地處祖國北部邊疆,自然資源豐富。作為國家能源戰(zhàn)略基地和能源生產(chǎn)消費(fèi)大省,既要保證為全國以及內(nèi)蒙古的經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展提供重要的能源保障,又要實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與環(huán)境、生態(tài)保護(hù)同時并行,對內(nèi)蒙古來講,任重道遠(yuǎn)。因此,本文擬通過研究預(yù)測內(nèi)蒙古二氧化碳排放峰值,提出控制內(nèi)蒙古溫室氣體排放政策體系,為內(nèi)蒙古社會的可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供數(shù)據(jù)支撐和政策參考。本文首先概述氣候變化、可持續(xù)發(fā)展、低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)、研究模型等學(xué)術(shù)理論的基礎(chǔ),然后簡要的介紹了內(nèi)蒙古經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會與二氧化碳排放現(xiàn)狀,隨后運(yùn)用完美迪氏對數(shù)指數(shù)模型(LMDI)模型,找到并分析影響內(nèi)蒙古二氧化碳排放的各種不同因素,進(jìn)而結(jié)合內(nèi)蒙古實(shí)際情況,運(yùn)用情景分析法(Scenario Analysis)設(shè)置中速-基準(zhǔn)情景等4種情景模式,運(yùn)用模型來預(yù)測內(nèi)蒙古2020到2050年期間的碳排放峰值量和時間,然后對各個影響因素的碳排放貢獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行詳細(xì)分析,探討它們的變化對內(nèi)蒙古碳排放的影響,最后提出降低內(nèi)蒙古二氧化碳排放量的控制策略。論文研究表明,未來內(nèi)蒙古二氧化碳排放量受經(jīng)濟(jì)、碳排放強(qiáng)度、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)等因素的影響,在不同情景下二氧化碳排放情況各有不同。在假設(shè)的低碳情景,二氧化碳排放量和峰值時間都較小,分別為2025年左右和5.44億噸;在節(jié)能情景下,碳排放峰值時間和峰值量分別為,2030年左右,5.63億噸;在基準(zhǔn)情形之下,內(nèi)蒙古的碳排放峰值時間是2035年左右,峰值量為6.97億噸;最后一種高耗能情景下,峰值量約為9.57億噸。從影響碳排放的因素來看,人均GDP、碳排放強(qiáng)度、第二產(chǎn)業(yè)占比是影響內(nèi)蒙古碳排放峰值時間和峰值量的主要因素。應(yīng)當(dāng)在考慮政策策略時,特別考慮經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展規(guī)劃,節(jié)能減排政策和電力、煤化工兩個高耗能產(chǎn)業(yè)未來的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的制定。其次落實(shí)各項(xiàng)低碳技術(shù)的快速研發(fā)與應(yīng)用、促進(jìn)煤炭就地轉(zhuǎn)化,提升其工業(yè)附加價值,也是內(nèi)蒙古二氧化碳減排的主要政策研究范圍。
[Abstract]:As we all know, in recent 30 or 40 years, greenhouse gas emissions have increased, and global warming has become an important factor affecting the sustainable development of mankind in the future. Since 2011, our government has issued many documents to the outside world to announce our country's carbon emission control target, which indicates our government's determination to solve the problem of greenhouse gas emissions, resolutely take the path of energy saving and emission reduction, and the road of low carbon sustainable development. Inner Mongolia, as a region where ethnic minorities are autonomous, is located on the northern border of the motherland and is rich in natural resources. As a national energy strategic base and a large province of energy production and consumption, we should not only guarantee the important energy security for the rapid economic development of the whole country and Inner Mongolia, but also realize economic development and environment and ecological protection at the same time. For Inner Mongolia, take a heavy burden and embark on a long road Therefore, this paper proposes a policy system to control the greenhouse gas emissions in Inner Mongolia by studying and forecasting the peak of carbon dioxide emissions in Inner Mongolia, so as to provide data support and policy reference for the sustainable development of Inner Mongolia society. This paper first summarizes the basic theories of climate change, sustainable development, low-carbon economy, research model and so on, and then briefly introduces the economic, social and carbon dioxide emission status of Inner Mongolia. Then, using the perfect Dee logarithmic index model (LMDI) model, we find and analyze the different factors that affect the carbon dioxide emission in Inner Mongolia, and then combine the actual situation of Inner Mongolia. Using scenario analysis method (Scenario Analysis) to set up four scenario models, such as medium speed and benchmark scenario, the model is used to predict the peak amount and time of carbon emission from 2020 to 2050 in Inner Mongolia, and then the contribution of each influencing factor to carbon emission is analyzed in detail. The effects of their changes on the carbon emissions of Inner Mongolia are discussed. Finally, the control strategies for reducing carbon dioxide emissions in Inner Mongolia are put forward. The paper shows that the future carbon dioxide emissions in Inner Mongolia are affected by the factors such as economy, intensity of carbon emissions, industrial structure and so on, and the situation of carbon dioxide emissions is different in different scenarios. In the hypothetical low carbon scenario, the carbon dioxide emission and peak time are smaller, about 2025 and 544 million tons, respectively, in the energy saving scenario, the peak time and peak value of carbon emission are about 2030 and 563 million tons, respectively. The peak time of carbon emission in Inner Mongolia is about 697 million tons in 2035 and the peak value in the last high-energy consumption scenario is about 957 million tons. From the point of view of the factors affecting carbon emissions, the intensity of GDP, carbon emissions per capita and the proportion of secondary industries are the main factors that affect the peak time and amount of carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia. When considering the policy strategy, we should consider the economic development plan, the policy of energy saving and emission reduction and the formulation of the future development strategy of the two energy-consuming industries: electricity and coal chemical industry. Secondly, implementing the rapid research and development and application of various low-carbon technologies, promoting the local transformation of coal, enhancing its industrial added value, is also the main policy research area of carbon dioxide emission reduction in Inner Mongolia.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X321
[Abstract]:As we all know, in recent 30 or 40 years, greenhouse gas emissions have increased, and global warming has become an important factor affecting the sustainable development of mankind in the future. Since 2011, our government has issued many documents to the outside world to announce our country's carbon emission control target, which indicates our government's determination to solve the problem of greenhouse gas emissions, resolutely take the path of energy saving and emission reduction, and the road of low carbon sustainable development. Inner Mongolia, as a region where ethnic minorities are autonomous, is located on the northern border of the motherland and is rich in natural resources. As a national energy strategic base and a large province of energy production and consumption, we should not only guarantee the important energy security for the rapid economic development of the whole country and Inner Mongolia, but also realize economic development and environment and ecological protection at the same time. For Inner Mongolia, take a heavy burden and embark on a long road Therefore, this paper proposes a policy system to control the greenhouse gas emissions in Inner Mongolia by studying and forecasting the peak of carbon dioxide emissions in Inner Mongolia, so as to provide data support and policy reference for the sustainable development of Inner Mongolia society. This paper first summarizes the basic theories of climate change, sustainable development, low-carbon economy, research model and so on, and then briefly introduces the economic, social and carbon dioxide emission status of Inner Mongolia. Then, using the perfect Dee logarithmic index model (LMDI) model, we find and analyze the different factors that affect the carbon dioxide emission in Inner Mongolia, and then combine the actual situation of Inner Mongolia. Using scenario analysis method (Scenario Analysis) to set up four scenario models, such as medium speed and benchmark scenario, the model is used to predict the peak amount and time of carbon emission from 2020 to 2050 in Inner Mongolia, and then the contribution of each influencing factor to carbon emission is analyzed in detail. The effects of their changes on the carbon emissions of Inner Mongolia are discussed. Finally, the control strategies for reducing carbon dioxide emissions in Inner Mongolia are put forward. The paper shows that the future carbon dioxide emissions in Inner Mongolia are affected by the factors such as economy, intensity of carbon emissions, industrial structure and so on, and the situation of carbon dioxide emissions is different in different scenarios. In the hypothetical low carbon scenario, the carbon dioxide emission and peak time are smaller, about 2025 and 544 million tons, respectively, in the energy saving scenario, the peak time and peak value of carbon emission are about 2030 and 563 million tons, respectively. The peak time of carbon emission in Inner Mongolia is about 697 million tons in 2035 and the peak value in the last high-energy consumption scenario is about 957 million tons. From the point of view of the factors affecting carbon emissions, the intensity of GDP, carbon emissions per capita and the proportion of secondary industries are the main factors that affect the peak time and amount of carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia. When considering the policy strategy, we should consider the economic development plan, the policy of energy saving and emission reduction and the formulation of the future development strategy of the two energy-consuming industries: electricity and coal chemical industry. Secondly, implementing the rapid research and development and application of various low-carbon technologies, promoting the local transformation of coal, enhancing its industrial added value, is also the main policy research area of carbon dioxide emission reduction in Inner Mongolia.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X321
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