本文選題：化工園區(qū) + 定量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析　； 參考：《重慶科技學(xué)院》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,我國化工園區(qū)數(shù)量持續(xù)攀升,園區(qū)內(nèi)危險(xiǎn)物質(zhì)引發(fā)重特大事故的情況也仍時(shí)有發(fā)生。為了讓相關(guān)部門和園區(qū)管理者能更明了地把控化工園區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模的安全閾值,保證園區(qū)安全持續(xù)的發(fā)展和企業(yè)效益最大化,園區(qū)安全容量的評(píng)估及應(yīng)用研究是當(dāng)前亟待解決的重要課題。本文詳細(xì)分析了國內(nèi)外關(guān)于定量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析和安全容量的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,以園區(qū)整體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為基礎(chǔ),明確了化工園區(qū)安全容量基本概念和研究范圍,結(jié)合工程實(shí)例開展了關(guān)于化工園區(qū)安全容量綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型的研究。主要的研究成果如下:(1)通過CASST-QRA V2.0軟件的輔助計(jì)算,將安全設(shè)施設(shè)備對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的控制系數(shù)λi引入園區(qū)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)總量的計(jì)算式中,同時(shí),結(jié)合層次分析法和模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法等手段,確定其他影響因素對(duì)固定危險(xiǎn)源安全容量的修正因子α,改進(jìn)了固定危險(xiǎn)源安全容量評(píng)價(jià)模型;(2)以園區(qū)區(qū)域內(nèi)單次運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)量和裝卸點(diǎn)潛在生命損失值為基礎(chǔ),結(jié)合園區(qū)年實(shí)際周轉(zhuǎn)量,提出化工園區(qū)移動(dòng)危險(xiǎn)源評(píng)價(jià)模型,克服了以往研究中將移動(dòng)危險(xiǎn)源風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等同于危險(xiǎn)化學(xué)品交通運(yùn)輸泄漏事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)帶來的差異;(3)利用Matlab開發(fā)了化工園區(qū)安全容量綜合評(píng)價(jià)系統(tǒng)軟件,為計(jì)算化工園區(qū)固定危險(xiǎn)源和移動(dòng)危險(xiǎn)源提供技術(shù)支撐;(4)將研究成果應(yīng)用于重慶某石化基地,計(jì)算出該石化基地的固定危險(xiǎn)源和移動(dòng)危險(xiǎn)源安全容量,并給出合理化建議,驗(yàn)證了安全容量計(jì)算模型在解決工程實(shí)際問題中的實(shí)用性,力求為化工園區(qū)科學(xué)管理和安全決策提供參考。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the number of chemical parks in China continues to rise, and the serious accidents caused by hazardous substances still occur from time to time. In order to make the safety threshold of the industrial scale of the control chemical park more clear to the relevant departments and park managers, and to ensure the sustainable development of the park security and the maximization of the enterprise benefit, The evaluation and application of park security capacity is an important task to be solved. In this paper, the present situation of quantitative risk analysis and safety capacity at home and abroad is analyzed in detail. Based on the overall risk of the park, the basic concept and research scope of safety capacity in chemical industry park are defined. The comprehensive evaluation model of safety capacity of chemical park is studied with engineering examples. The main research results are as follows: (1) through the aided calculation of CASST-QRA V2.0 software, the risk control coefficient 位 I of safety facilities is introduced into the calculation formula of the total risk of the park. At the same time, it combines the analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, etc. Determining the correction factor 偽 of other influencing factors to the safety capacity of fixed risk sources and improving the evaluation model of safety capacity of fixed risk sources, the model is based on the single transportation risk and the potential life loss value of loading and unloading points in the park area. Combined with the actual annual turnover of the park, the evaluation model of the moving hazard source in the chemical industry park is put forward. The paper overcomes the difference that the risk of moving dangerous source is equated with the risk of leakage accident caused by traffic and transportation of dangerous chemicals in the past. The software of comprehensive evaluation system for safety capacity of chemical industry park is developed by using Matlab. In order to provide technical support for the calculation of fixed and moving hazard sources in chemical industry park, the research results are applied to a petrochemical base in Chongqing. The safe capacity of fixed and moving hazard sources in this petrochemical base is calculated, and some reasonable suggestions are given. The practicability of the safety capacity calculation model in solving practical engineering problems is verified, and the reference for scientific management and safety decision of chemical industry park is sought.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶科技學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TQ086

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