本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國行業(yè)碳排放效率的動態(tài)演進(jìn)及其驅(qū)動因素的動態(tài)影響研究　出處：《浙江財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 碳排放效率 全要素碳排放效率 Super-SBM DEA 行業(yè)全局向量自回歸(IGVAR)

【摘要】：世界各國經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,帶來的能源枯竭和環(huán)境污染等問題也日益嚴(yán)重,其中二氧化碳排放所引起的溫室效應(yīng)問題尤為突出,這不僅給我國生產(chǎn)生活帶來嚴(yán)重的負(fù)面影響,也導(dǎo)致我國承受了來自國際上的巨大減排壓力�；诖�,針對碳排放效率的相關(guān)研究成為了當(dāng)前低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域的熱點(diǎn)之一。由于碳排放的主要源頭是各個(gè)行業(yè),本文以行業(yè)為研究對象,借鑒相關(guān)理論和文獻(xiàn),在全要素框架下對碳排放效率進(jìn)行科學(xué)計(jì)量,并進(jìn)一步探究我國行業(yè)碳排放效率的動態(tài)演進(jìn)特征及其驅(qū)動因素的影響機(jī)理。這對于政府設(shè)定合理的減排目標(biāo)、優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和制定行業(yè)針對性的節(jié)能減排政策都具有較為重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。首先,進(jìn)行行業(yè)全要素碳排放效率的測度和分析。相較于單要素碳排放效率,全要素碳排放效率將資源、環(huán)境和經(jīng)濟(jì)納入統(tǒng)一框架下,在指標(biāo)全面性和效率可改進(jìn)性等方面具有優(yōu)勢�；诖�,本文選擇基于松弛變量測算的超效率數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)分析方法(Super-SBM DEA),以資本、勞動力和能源為投入,總產(chǎn)值和碳排放量為產(chǎn)出,測度行業(yè)碳排放效率。其次,實(shí)證考察行業(yè)碳排放效率的動態(tài)演進(jìn)特征及其驅(qū)動因素的影響效果。其中行業(yè)碳排放效率的動態(tài)演進(jìn)主要采用絕對收斂性分析和核密度分析的方法,而驅(qū)動因素的研究則采用行業(yè)全局向量自回歸模型(IGVAR)。研究結(jié)論如下:第一,碳排放量存在明顯的行業(yè)差異性,且隨時(shí)間推移呈現(xiàn)出遞增趨勢�；谛袠I(yè)碳排放量的測算結(jié)果,建筑業(yè)的碳排放量最低,年均值為3490萬噸,其原因是建筑業(yè)的能源消耗較低(總消耗的年均水平僅為制造業(yè)的2.7%)。而制造業(yè)屬于“雙高”行業(yè),碳排放量年均值為433372萬噸,是其他五個(gè)行業(yè)總和的1.15倍,年均增長率則高達(dá)8.95%。此外,其他行業(yè)碳排放量從高至低的排序?yàn)?電力、煤氣及水生產(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè),采掘業(yè),交通運(yùn)輸、倉儲和郵政業(yè),農(nóng)林漁牧業(yè)。第二,全要素碳排放效率呈現(xiàn)出顯著的行業(yè)差異性。六大行業(yè)由高至低排序?yàn)?建筑業(yè),農(nóng)林漁牧業(yè),制造業(yè),交通運(yùn)輸、倉儲和郵政業(yè),電力、煤氣及水生產(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè),采掘業(yè)。其中交通運(yùn)輸、倉儲和郵政業(yè),電力、煤氣及水生產(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè),采掘業(yè)的年平均碳排放效率皆不超過0.2,而最高的建筑業(yè)則為0.89。第三,碳排放效率不存在行業(yè)“趨同”現(xiàn)象,且低水平行業(yè)效率的增長趨勢緩慢,這是目前我國碳排放效率的主要問題所在。從時(shí)序變化的角度上,碳排放效率低下的采掘業(yè),制造業(yè),電力、煤氣及水生產(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè),交通運(yùn)輸、倉儲及郵政業(yè)基本呈現(xiàn)緩慢上升或者小范圍內(nèi)波動的情況。進(jìn)一步地,從行業(yè)碳排放效率演進(jìn)的角度分析,演進(jìn)收斂性表明:2007年后碳排放效率不滿足絕對收斂性,即碳排放效率的行業(yè)差距將拉大。而演進(jìn)特征則主要有三點(diǎn):一是大多數(shù)行業(yè)在較低的碳排放效率水平上集聚;二是隨著時(shí)間推移,大部分行業(yè)碳排放效率呈現(xiàn)遞增趨勢,但速度緩慢;三是,在高碳排放效率水平上,行業(yè)差異性較大,在低水平上則較小。第四,碳排放效率驅(qū)動因素的作用效果具有行業(yè)差異性。具體表現(xiàn)為:(1)工業(yè)碳排放效率驅(qū)動因素的內(nèi)部效應(yīng)各不相同,且存在明顯的溢出效應(yīng)和擠出效應(yīng)。一方面,從內(nèi)部效應(yīng)看,工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大和技術(shù)水平的進(jìn)步有利于本身碳排放效率的提升,貿(mào)易開放則具有抑制作用。另一方面,從溢出效應(yīng)和擠出效應(yīng)看(溢出效應(yīng)指某一行業(yè)驅(qū)動因素增長對其他行業(yè)碳排放效率有正向作用,擠出作用則相反),工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大對農(nóng)林漁牧業(yè),建筑業(yè)的碳排放效率存在擠出效應(yīng),對交通運(yùn)輸、倉儲和郵政業(yè)則有溢出效應(yīng);工業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步對農(nóng)林漁牧業(yè)有溢出效應(yīng),對建筑業(yè),交通運(yùn)輸、倉儲和郵政業(yè)則有擠出效應(yīng);工業(yè)擴(kuò)大對外貿(mào)易對農(nóng)林漁牧業(yè),交通運(yùn)輸、倉儲和郵政業(yè)有溢出效應(yīng),對建筑業(yè)則有擠出效應(yīng)。只有綜合工業(yè)驅(qū)動因素的擠出效應(yīng)、溢出效應(yīng)和內(nèi)部效應(yīng),才能更全面把握工業(yè)碳排放效率的提升。(2)行業(yè)內(nèi)部驅(qū)動因素的作用效果各不相同,且行業(yè)之間同一驅(qū)動因素的作用效果存在明顯的差異性。行業(yè)內(nèi),農(nóng)林漁牧業(yè),采掘業(yè),建筑業(yè)的三種驅(qū)動因素對其碳排放效率皆表現(xiàn)為正向作用;電力、煤氣及水生產(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè),交通運(yùn)輸、倉儲和郵政業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模和技術(shù)進(jìn)步表現(xiàn)為正向作用,制造業(yè)僅有技術(shù)進(jìn)步表現(xiàn)為正向作用。行業(yè)間,在經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的沖擊下,農(nóng)林漁牧業(yè)碳排放效率提升最明顯,其次為交通運(yùn)輸、倉儲和郵政業(yè),采掘業(yè),電力、燃?xì)饧八纳a(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè),建筑業(yè),而制造業(yè)的碳排放效率出現(xiàn)衰減;技術(shù)進(jìn)步的沖擊下,碳排放效率提升最大的為建筑業(yè),最小的為交通運(yùn)輸、倉儲和郵政業(yè),其余由高到低的順序?yàn)?制造業(yè),農(nóng)林漁牧業(yè),采掘業(yè),電力、燃?xì)饧八纳a(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè);貿(mào)易開放水平的沖擊下,農(nóng)林漁牧業(yè)碳排放效率提升最為明顯,其次為采掘業(yè),建筑業(yè),其他行業(yè)都出現(xiàn)衰減的情況。最后,本文基于研究結(jié)果提出了行業(yè)碳排放效率提升的相關(guān)建議:對于農(nóng)林漁牧業(yè),需注重提高勞動者素質(zhì)和加快經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展;對于工業(yè),需強(qiáng)調(diào)能源節(jié)約和技術(shù)進(jìn)步;對于交通運(yùn)輸、倉儲和郵政業(yè),應(yīng)關(guān)注節(jié)能和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展;而對于碳排放效率行業(yè)差異性的縮小,則建議政府依據(jù)行業(yè)碳排放效率驅(qū)動因素的實(shí)際作用效果,針對低效率行業(yè),加強(qiáng)能耗和碳排放的監(jiān)測監(jiān)管,并進(jìn)行合理的資源傾斜。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of world economy, energy depletion and environmental pollution problems are increasingly serious, the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide emissions caused by the problem is particularly prominent, which not only bring serious negative effect to the production and living in China, also causes our country to suffer from the huge pressure. Based on this, according to the the related research of carbon emission efficiency has become one of the hotspots in the field of low carbon economy. As the main sources of carbon emissions is various industries, based on industry as the research object, referring to the relevant literature and theory, scientific measurement of carbon emission efficiency in all elements under the framework of dynamic evolution and to further explore the carbon emission efficiency the influence factors and mechanism of driving. This for the government to set a reasonable target, optimize the industrial structure and the development of industry for energy saving and emission reduction policy are It has important practical significance. Firstly, the determination and analysis of carbon emission efficiency of the industry. Compared to the single factor of carbon emission efficiency of carbon emission efficiency of resources, environment and economy into a unified framework, can be improved and other aspects have advantages in comprehensive index and efficiency. Based on this, this paper choose the analysis method of super efficiency data envelopment slack variables based on measurement (Super-SBM DEA), to the capital, labor and energy input, output and carbon emissions as output, carbon emission efficiency measurement industry. Secondly, the dynamic evolution characteristics of empirical industry carbon emission efficiency and driving effect factors. The dynamic evolution of industry carbon emission efficiency mainly adopt the analysis method of absolute convergence analysis and kernel density, while the research on the driving factors is the industry global vector autoregressive model (IGVAR). The conclusion of the study such as : first, there are significant differences between industries of carbon emissions, and with the passage of time is showing an increasing trend. The calculation results based on industry carbon emissions, carbon emissions in the construction industry the lowest annual average of 34 million 900 thousand tons, the reason is the construction of energy consumption is low (average level of total consumption is only 2.7% manufacturing). The manufacturing industry belongs to the "double high" industries, the annual average carbon emissions of 4 billion 333 million 720 thousand tons, is 1.15 times the sum of the other five industries, the average annual growth rate is as high as 8.95%. addition, carbon emissions in other industries from high to low order: electricity, gas and water production and supply industry, mining industry, transportation, storage and postal industry, animal husbandry and fishery industry. Second, the total factor efficiency of carbon emissions showed a significant industry difference. Six industries from high to low ranking: construction, agriculture, manufacturing, transportation, storage and postal industry, power, Gas and water production and supply industry, mining industry. Including transportation, storage and postal services, electricity, gas and water production and supply industry, the average annual carbon emission efficiency of mining is not more than 0.2, while the highest building industry is 0.89. third, carbon emission efficiency there is no industry convergence phenomenon. The growth trend and the low efficiency of the industry is slow, this is the main problem of the efficiency of carbon emission in China. From the temporal perspective, carbon emission efficiency low mining, manufacturing, electricity, gas and water production and supply industry, transportation, storage and postal industry increases with a low or small in the range of fluctuations. Further, analysis from the perspective of the evolution of industry carbon emission efficiency, evolution convergence after 2007 showed that carbon emission efficiency does not meet the absolute convergence, namely carbon emission efficiency of the industry gap will be widening. And evolution characteristics There are three main points: one is most of the industry agglomeration in the carbon emission efficiency at a low level; two is with the passage of time, most of the industry carbon emission efficiency increased, but the speed is slow; three, in high carbon emission efficiency level, industry differences in the low water level is fourth smaller. The effect of carbon emission efficiency, driving factors with the industry differences. Specific performance: (1) the industrial carbon emission efficiency driven internal effect factors are different, and there is obvious spillover effect and crowding out effect. On the one hand, from the internal effect, industrial economy scale and the level of technical progress in favor of its carbon emission efficiency, trade openness has inhibitory effect. On the other hand, the spillover effect and crowding out effect (see spillover effect of certain industry growth drivers in other industries of carbon emission efficiency has a positive effect, squeeze The role of the opposite), expand the size of the industrial economy of agriculture, construction industry carbon emission efficiency of the extrusion effect on transport, storage and postal industry has a spillover effect; industrial and technological progress have spillover effect on agriculture, the construction industry, transportation, storage and postal industry there is a crowding out effect; industrial foreign trade expansion of agriculture, transportation, storage and postal industry spillover effects, there is crowding out effect on the building industry. Only the comprehensive industrial driving factors of crowding out effect, spillover effect and internal effect, can more fully grasp the industrial carbon emission efficiency (2). Industry internal driving factors have different effects, and industry effect between the same driving factors have obvious differences. In the industry, agriculture, mining industry, the three driving factors of construction industry are on the carbon emission efficiency Is a positive effect; electricity, gas and water production and supply industry, transportation, economy of scale and technical progress of warehousing and postal industry play a positive role, technical progress of manufacturing showed positive effects. Between industries, economies of scale under the impact of carbon emission efficiency of agriculture industry to enhance the most obvious followed by transportation, storage and postal industry, mining industry, electric power, gas and water production and supply industry, construction industry, and manufacturing efficiency of carbon emission decay; technological progress under the impact of carbon emissions and improve the efficiency of the largest for the construction industry, the minimum for transportation, storage and postal industry. The rest of the order from high to low: manufacturing, agriculture, mining, electricity, gas and water production and supply industry; trade liberalization impact, enhance the efficiency of carbon emissions from agriculture is most obvious, followed by the mining industry, construction industry, Other industries are decay. Finally, this paper based on the research results and puts forward related suggestions to improve the efficiency of industry carbon emissions for agriculture, need to pay attention to improve the quality of workers and accelerate economic development; stressed the need for industry, energy saving and technological progress; for transportation, storage and postal industry, should pay attention to energy saving and economic development; and for the carbon emission efficiency industry difference narrowed, suggested the actual effect of the government according to the industrial carbon emission efficiency of driving factors, aiming at inefficient industries, strengthen the monitoring and supervision of energy consumption and carbon emissions, and reasonable resource tilt.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X322;F224

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