【摘要】：受全球氣候變化、下墊面條件改變以及劇烈人類活動的影響,我國旱澇急轉(zhuǎn)事件呈現(xiàn)廣發(fā)、頻發(fā)的態(tài)勢,嚴(yán)重威脅著我國的水安全和糧食安全,成為我國水旱災(zāi)害的一種新趨勢。本文選取荊州站1956～2013年逐日氣象資料以及1960～1962年和1981～2002年(共計25年)土壤墑情資料,建立能識別旱澇急轉(zhuǎn)的Palmer旱度模式,再采用游程理論從Palmer指標(biāo)中分離出早澇急轉(zhuǎn)事件的三個特征變量,進(jìn)而應(yīng)用Archimedean Copula函數(shù)構(gòu)建兩變量聯(lián)合概率分布以及三變量聯(lián)合分布,并計算相應(yīng)的條件概率和組合重現(xiàn)期,以期為地區(qū)旱澇交替災(zāi)害防治工作提供一定的依據(jù)。本文主要得到以下幾點結(jié)論:(1)基于PMDI序列的Palmer旱度模式進(jìn)行旱澇急轉(zhuǎn)識別,在原有Palmer干旱指數(shù)的基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行修正,修正后建立的Palmer旱度模式對旱澇急轉(zhuǎn)現(xiàn)象的描述更為精確,考慮的因素更為全面,PMDI指標(biāo)具有明確的物理意義,不僅考慮多種氣象因素,還兼顧土壤墑情因素,同時考慮前期水分狀況的影響,具有時間和空間上的可比性。(2)不同程度旱澇遭遇,輕旱轉(zhuǎn)輕澇發(fā)生頻率最高,占所有旱轉(zhuǎn)澇事件的一半,其次是中旱轉(zhuǎn)輕澇和輕旱轉(zhuǎn)中澇,分別占18.00%和12.99%,重旱轉(zhuǎn)重澇發(fā)生頻率最低,僅為0.59%;輕澇轉(zhuǎn)輕旱發(fā)生頻率最高,占所有澇轉(zhuǎn)旱事件的48.34%,其次是中澇轉(zhuǎn)輕旱和輕澇轉(zhuǎn)中旱,分別占18.58%和12.43%,重旱轉(zhuǎn)重澇發(fā)生頻率最低,僅為0.68%。(3)旱澇急轉(zhuǎn)事件作為隨機水文事件,其特征變量間具有相依關(guān)系,用GH Copula函數(shù)構(gòu)造的兩變量聯(lián)合分布以及三變量聯(lián)合分布擬合精度是滿意的。基于GH Copula函數(shù)得到三個旱澇急轉(zhuǎn)特征變量的二維條件概率以及多變量組合重現(xiàn)期,可以為地區(qū)水利工程規(guī)劃和風(fēng)險評估工作提供依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Under the influence of global climate change, the change of underlying surface conditions and violent human activities, the rapid transition events of drought and flood in China show a widespread and frequent trend, which seriously threatens the water security and food security of our country, and has become a new trend of flood and drought disasters in our country. In this paper, based on the daily meteorological data of Jingzhou Station from 1956 to 2013 and the soil moisture data of 1960 ~ 1962 and 1981 / 2002 (a total of 25 years), the Palmer drought degree model which can identify the rapid rotation of drought and flood is established, and then three characteristic variables of early waterlogging and rapid transition events are separated from the Palmer index by using run distance theory, and then the joint probability distribution of two variables and the joint distribution of three variables are constructed by using Archimedean Copula function, and the corresponding conditional probability and combination recurrence period are calculated. In order to provide a certain basis for the prevention and control of alternate disasters of drought and waterlogging in the area. In this paper, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) the Palmer drought model based on PMDI sequence is used to identify the drought and waterlogging, and the Palmer drought model is modified on the basis of the original drought index. The modified Palmer drought model is more accurate and comprehensive in describing the phenomenon of drought and waterlogging, and the PMDI index has a clear physical significance, not only considering a variety of meteorological factors, but also taking into account the soil moisture factors. At the same time, considering the influence of water status in the early stage, it has the comparability of time and space. (2) the frequency of light drought to light waterlogging is the highest, accounting for half of all drought-to-waterlogging events, followed by medium drought to light waterlogging and light drought to waterlogging, accounting for 18.00% and 12.99%, respectively, and the lowest frequency of heavy drought to heavy waterlogging, which is only 0.59%; The frequency of light waterlogging to light drought is the highest, accounting for 48.34% of all waterlogging to drought events, followed by moderate waterlogging to light drought and light waterlogging to moderate drought, accounting for 18.58% and 12.43%, respectively. The frequency of heavy drought to heavy waterlogging is the lowest, which is only 0.68%. (3) as a random hydrological event, the characteristic variables of drought and waterlogging are dependent. The fitting accuracy of the joint distribution of two variables and the joint distribution of three variables constructed by GH Copula function is satisfactory. Based on GH Copula function, the two-dimensional conditional probability and multivariable combination recurrence period of three characteristic variables of drought and waterlogging are obtained, which can provide the basis for regional water conservancy project planning and risk assessment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：P426.616;P458.121

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