東北地區(qū)雪災(zāi)風(fēng)險綜合評價
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-23 10:03
【摘要】：積雪是地表覆蓋中非�；钴S、非常敏感的自然要素之一,能夠?qū)θ祟惢顒雍妥匀画h(huán)境的諸多方面產(chǎn)生影響。過量的降雪和積雪能夠引發(fā)一系列冰雪災(zāi)害,因而我國也是雪災(zāi)的高發(fā)區(qū)之一。對草原牧區(qū)而言,雪災(zāi)是冬春季主要的自然災(zāi)害,能夠造成牧草掩埋,牲畜采食困難、凍傷死亡,牧民生活困難,極大地威脅到畜牧業(yè)經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。對于其他地區(qū)而言,突發(fā)性的、大范圍的雪災(zāi)導(dǎo)致供水供暖、電力通信、交通運輸?shù)刃袠I(yè)嚴重受損,農(nóng)業(yè)、林業(yè)、漁業(yè)等受災(zāi),給當?shù)亟?jīng)濟建設(shè)和人民生活帶來巨大的影響。因此,雪災(zāi)的研究和雪災(zāi)風(fēng)險的綜合評價顯得十分的必要和重要。本文以東北地區(qū)為例,搜集整理了諸多的氣象、地形地貌、社會經(jīng)濟、歷史雪災(zāi)等數(shù)據(jù)資料,利用GIS技術(shù)與方法,構(gòu)建雪災(zāi)風(fēng)險綜合評價模型,對該地區(qū)的雪災(zāi)風(fēng)險進行綜合的評價和分析,并提出針對性的防災(zāi)減災(zāi)對策和建議。主要的內(nèi)容有:(1)雪災(zāi)風(fēng)險綜合評價模型的指標體系及構(gòu)建過程;(2)雪災(zāi)氣象指標的空間分布及年際變化趨勢,潛在雪災(zāi)危險性的空間分布特點;(3)歷史雪災(zāi)頻率和強度、歷史雪災(zāi)危險性的空間分布特點;(4)雪災(zāi)致災(zāi)危險性計算模型和空間分布特點;(5)雪災(zāi)承災(zāi)體的暴露性、脆弱性、地區(qū)救災(zāi)應(yīng)災(zāi)能力的基本情況和空間分布,承災(zāi)體脆弱性的計算模型和空間分布特點;(6)雪災(zāi)風(fēng)險等級劃分、綜合評價結(jié)果,以及針對具體地區(qū)提出的防災(zāi)減災(zāi)對策和建議。得出了結(jié)論:(1)雪災(zāi)潛在危險性比較高的地區(qū)分布在大、小興安嶺以及長白山等山區(qū),這些地區(qū)雪多、雪深;比較低的地區(qū)分布在內(nèi)蒙古的東南部、松嫩-遼河平原的中西部以及遼東半島大部,這些地區(qū)降(積)雪比較少,不容易形成雪災(zāi)。53年來,天氣的極端性導(dǎo)致整個地區(qū)發(fā)生雪災(zāi)的潛在危險性變高。(2)呼倫貝爾高原是東北地區(qū)雪災(zāi)頻率和強度最高的地區(qū),長白山地區(qū)次之,這兩個地區(qū)的雪災(zāi)頻繁出現(xiàn),災(zāi)情嚴重,歷史雪災(zāi)危險性比較高;松嫩-遼河平原、小興安嶺地區(qū)不容易發(fā)生雪災(zāi),歷史雪災(zāi)危險性比較低。(3)雪災(zāi)致災(zāi)危險性最高的地區(qū)是呼倫貝爾高原,特別是草原牧區(qū);較高的地區(qū)在東北的東南部,包括黑龍江南部、吉林的中南部、遼寧的東北部等;危險性最低的地區(qū)有兩個,分別為以吉林白城市為核心的松嫩平原區(qū)域和遼寧的西部地區(qū)。(4)綜合承災(zāi)體暴露性、敏感性和救災(zāi)應(yīng)災(zāi)能力,發(fā)現(xiàn)松嫩-遼河平原地區(qū)承災(zāi)體脆弱性最高,具體包括黑龍江西南部、吉林中部和遼寧的北部及半島南部,這些地區(qū)人口稠密、經(jīng)濟發(fā)達,承災(zāi)體暴露性、敏感性和救災(zāi)能力均很高;大、小興安嶺及長白山等地區(qū),人口稀少、經(jīng)濟落后,由于承災(zāi)體暴露性、敏感性、救災(zāi)應(yīng)災(zāi)能力均很低,承災(zāi)體脆弱性最低。(5)雪災(zāi)風(fēng)險極高的地區(qū)包括呼倫貝爾高原、黑龍江南部、吉林東南部、遼寧北部;風(fēng)險較高的地區(qū)分布在風(fēng)險極高地區(qū)的周圍,具體分布在東北的東南部及西部的部分地區(qū),地域范圍遠大于極高風(fēng)險地區(qū);風(fēng)險比較低(較低和極低)的地區(qū)分布在東北北部山區(qū)、大興安嶺東側(cè)與松嫩-遼河平原西部之間的廣大地區(qū),尤其以大興安嶺地區(qū)、蒙黑吉三省區(qū)交界地區(qū)和遼寧西部地區(qū)的雪災(zāi)風(fēng)險最低。(6)東北地區(qū)的雪災(zāi)防治工作包括做好雪災(zāi)的氣象預(yù)報、預(yù)警和應(yīng)急管理工作,加大雪災(zāi)防災(zāi)減災(zāi)的投入,增強全民的防災(zāi)意識和自救能力,建立健全雪災(zāi)綜合保險體系等。除此之外,不同的地區(qū)還應(yīng)該針對自身實際情況做好重點規(guī)劃安排。
[Abstract]:Snow is one of the most active and sensitive natural elements in the surface coverage, and can have an impact on many aspects of human activity and natural environment. The excess of snow and snow can trigger a series of snow and snow disasters, so our country is also one of the high-hair areas of the snow disaster. For the grassland and pastoral area, the snow disaster is the main natural disaster in the spring and spring, can cause the herbage to be buried, the livestock feed is difficult, the frostbite death, the herdsmen's life is difficult, and the development of the animal husbandry economy is greatly threatened. For other regions, sudden and large-scale snow disasters have caused serious damage to the industries such as water supply heating, electric power communication, transportation and other industries, such as agriculture, forestry, fishing and the like, and has a great impact on the local economic construction and the people's life. Therefore, the study of the snow disaster and the comprehensive evaluation of the risk of the snow disaster are very necessary and important. In this paper, based on the Northeast China, a number of data such as the weather, the landform, the social economy, the history and the snow disaster are collected and sorted, and the comprehensive evaluation model of the risk of the snow disaster is constructed by using the GIS technology and the method, and the risk of the snow disaster in the region is comprehensively evaluated and analyzed. The countermeasures and suggestions for disaster prevention and reduction are put forward. The main content is: (1) the index system and the construction process of the comprehensive evaluation model of the risk of the snow disaster; (2) the spatial distribution of the snow disaster weather index and the inter-annual change trend and the spatial distribution characteristics of the potential snow disaster risk; and (3) the frequency and the intensity of the historical snow disaster, The spatial distribution characteristics of the risk of history and snow disaster; (4) the calculation model and the spatial distribution characteristics of the disaster risk of the snow disaster; (5) the basic and spatial distribution of the exposure, the vulnerability and the disaster response capacity of the region, The calculation model and the spatial distribution characteristics of the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body; (6) the classification of the risk grade of the snow disaster, the comprehensive evaluation result, and the countermeasures and suggestions for disaster prevention and reduction in the specific area. The results are as follows: (1) The region with high potential risk of the snow disaster is distributed in the mountainous areas such as the Great, the Xiaoxing 'an Mountains and the Changbai Mountain, and the snow is more and the snow is deep in these areas; the relatively low area is distributed in the south-east of Inner Mongolia, the central and western parts of the Songnen-Liaohe Plain and the large part of the Liaodong Peninsula. The drop in snow in these areas is less likely to form a snowstorm. In the past 53 years, the extreme nature of the weather has led to a high risk of a snowstorm in the entire region. (2) The Hulunber Plateau is the region with the highest snow disaster frequency and intensity in the northeast region. The region of Changbai Mountain is the second. The snow disaster in the two regions is frequent, the disaster is serious, the history and snow disaster risk is relatively high, the Songnen-Liaohe Plain and the Xiaoxing' an Mountain area are not prone to snow disasters, The risk of historical snow disaster is relatively low. (3) The region with the highest risk of the snow disaster is the Hulunber Plateau, especially the grassland and pastoral area; the higher area is in the southeast of the northeast, including the south of Heilongjiang, the south-central of Jilin, the north-east of Liaoning and the like; and there are two areas with the lowest risk. The area of the Songnen Plain and the western part of Liaoning are the core of the white city of Jilin, respectively. (4) The exposure, sensitivity and disaster response capacity of the comprehensive disaster-bearing body are the highest, including the south-west of Heilongjiang, the central part of Jilin and the north of Liaoning and the southern part of the peninsula, which are densely populated and economically developed. The exposure, sensitivity and disaster relief ability of the disaster-bearing body are both high; the population is scarce and the economy is backward due to the exposure of the disaster-bearing body, the sensitivity and the disaster relief ability are low, and the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body is the lowest due to the exposure, the sensitivity and the disaster relief ability of the disaster-bearing body. (5) The regions with high risk of snow disaster include the Hulunber Plateau, the south of Heilongjiang, the south-east of Jilin and the north of Liaoning. The region with higher risk is distributed around the high-risk area, and is distributed in the south-east and the western part of the Northeast. The region is far greater than the very high-risk area; the region with low risk (lower and very low) is distributed in the mountainous area of the northern part of the northeast, the east of the Daxing 'an Mountains and the west of the Songnen-Liaohe Plain, especially in the Daxing' an Ling area, The risk of snow disaster in the border area of the three provinces and the west of Liaoning and the western part of Liaoning province is the lowest. (6) The disaster prevention and control of the Northeast China includes the meteorological forecast, the early warning and the emergency management of the snow disaster, the input of the disaster prevention and reduction of the snow disaster, the awareness of disaster prevention and self-help of the whole people, and the establishment and establishment of the comprehensive insurance system of the snow disaster. In addition, different areas should also focus on the planning arrangements for their actual situations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：P429
本文編號：2351185
[Abstract]:Snow is one of the most active and sensitive natural elements in the surface coverage, and can have an impact on many aspects of human activity and natural environment. The excess of snow and snow can trigger a series of snow and snow disasters, so our country is also one of the high-hair areas of the snow disaster. For the grassland and pastoral area, the snow disaster is the main natural disaster in the spring and spring, can cause the herbage to be buried, the livestock feed is difficult, the frostbite death, the herdsmen's life is difficult, and the development of the animal husbandry economy is greatly threatened. For other regions, sudden and large-scale snow disasters have caused serious damage to the industries such as water supply heating, electric power communication, transportation and other industries, such as agriculture, forestry, fishing and the like, and has a great impact on the local economic construction and the people's life. Therefore, the study of the snow disaster and the comprehensive evaluation of the risk of the snow disaster are very necessary and important. In this paper, based on the Northeast China, a number of data such as the weather, the landform, the social economy, the history and the snow disaster are collected and sorted, and the comprehensive evaluation model of the risk of the snow disaster is constructed by using the GIS technology and the method, and the risk of the snow disaster in the region is comprehensively evaluated and analyzed. The countermeasures and suggestions for disaster prevention and reduction are put forward. The main content is: (1) the index system and the construction process of the comprehensive evaluation model of the risk of the snow disaster; (2) the spatial distribution of the snow disaster weather index and the inter-annual change trend and the spatial distribution characteristics of the potential snow disaster risk; and (3) the frequency and the intensity of the historical snow disaster, The spatial distribution characteristics of the risk of history and snow disaster; (4) the calculation model and the spatial distribution characteristics of the disaster risk of the snow disaster; (5) the basic and spatial distribution of the exposure, the vulnerability and the disaster response capacity of the region, The calculation model and the spatial distribution characteristics of the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body; (6) the classification of the risk grade of the snow disaster, the comprehensive evaluation result, and the countermeasures and suggestions for disaster prevention and reduction in the specific area. The results are as follows: (1) The region with high potential risk of the snow disaster is distributed in the mountainous areas such as the Great, the Xiaoxing 'an Mountains and the Changbai Mountain, and the snow is more and the snow is deep in these areas; the relatively low area is distributed in the south-east of Inner Mongolia, the central and western parts of the Songnen-Liaohe Plain and the large part of the Liaodong Peninsula. The drop in snow in these areas is less likely to form a snowstorm. In the past 53 years, the extreme nature of the weather has led to a high risk of a snowstorm in the entire region. (2) The Hulunber Plateau is the region with the highest snow disaster frequency and intensity in the northeast region. The region of Changbai Mountain is the second. The snow disaster in the two regions is frequent, the disaster is serious, the history and snow disaster risk is relatively high, the Songnen-Liaohe Plain and the Xiaoxing' an Mountain area are not prone to snow disasters, The risk of historical snow disaster is relatively low. (3) The region with the highest risk of the snow disaster is the Hulunber Plateau, especially the grassland and pastoral area; the higher area is in the southeast of the northeast, including the south of Heilongjiang, the south-central of Jilin, the north-east of Liaoning and the like; and there are two areas with the lowest risk. The area of the Songnen Plain and the western part of Liaoning are the core of the white city of Jilin, respectively. (4) The exposure, sensitivity and disaster response capacity of the comprehensive disaster-bearing body are the highest, including the south-west of Heilongjiang, the central part of Jilin and the north of Liaoning and the southern part of the peninsula, which are densely populated and economically developed. The exposure, sensitivity and disaster relief ability of the disaster-bearing body are both high; the population is scarce and the economy is backward due to the exposure of the disaster-bearing body, the sensitivity and the disaster relief ability are low, and the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body is the lowest due to the exposure, the sensitivity and the disaster relief ability of the disaster-bearing body. (5) The regions with high risk of snow disaster include the Hulunber Plateau, the south of Heilongjiang, the south-east of Jilin and the north of Liaoning. The region with higher risk is distributed around the high-risk area, and is distributed in the south-east and the western part of the Northeast. The region is far greater than the very high-risk area; the region with low risk (lower and very low) is distributed in the mountainous area of the northern part of the northeast, the east of the Daxing 'an Mountains and the west of the Songnen-Liaohe Plain, especially in the Daxing' an Ling area, The risk of snow disaster in the border area of the three provinces and the west of Liaoning and the western part of Liaoning province is the lowest. (6) The disaster prevention and control of the Northeast China includes the meteorological forecast, the early warning and the emergency management of the snow disaster, the input of the disaster prevention and reduction of the snow disaster, the awareness of disaster prevention and self-help of the whole people, and the establishment and establishment of the comprehensive insurance system of the snow disaster. In addition, different areas should also focus on the planning arrangements for their actual situations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：P429
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