本文選題：手足口病 + TSIR模型��； 參考：《青島大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：手足口病主要是由腸道病毒71型和柯薩奇病毒A16引起的傳染病,發(fā)病人群主要以5歲以下人群為主,手足口病已經(jīng)成為了我國重要的公共衛(wèi)生挑戰(zhàn)。2015年,我國的手足口病發(fā)病報告人數(shù)為1767931人,死亡人數(shù)為114人。為研究手足口病的傳播,需要研究不同齡組的感染力和手足口病的接觸率。重慶作為中國西南地區(qū)唯一的直轄市,與西南地區(qū)的其他省市相比有較大的人口密度,具有典型的中國東南方發(fā)病率季節(jié)性模式,即每年會有兩個高峰,分別在每年的春季和每年的冬季。重慶市手足口病的患病人群主要以6歲以下兒童為主,占93%,發(fā)病最多的人群在2-3歲。安徽省六安市2008年手足口病暴發(fā)前各年齡組的感染力相同,而暴發(fā)后不同年齡組的感染力不同,因此重慶市手足口病不同年齡組的感染力可能不同。本文基于重慶市2008年第17周~2011年第52周手足口病分年齡組的數(shù)據(jù),使用催化模型計算了重慶市手足口病的感染力,利用時間序列易感者-感染者-康復(fù)者(time series susceptible infected recovered(TSIR))模型計算了重慶市手足口病隨時間變化的接觸率,分析了學(xué)校假期及氣候因素(包括平均氣溫、相對濕度、降水量、光照時數(shù))對接觸率季節(jié)性的影響。研究結(jié)果表明:1)不同年齡組的手足口病的感染力不同,3-4歲感染力最大,在成人中,35-39歲的感染力最大;2)重慶市手足口病的接觸率呈年季節(jié)性;3)氣候因素對接觸率的變化沒有影響;寒暑假期間接觸率的增加,意味著在重慶手足口病社區(qū)的接觸率高于在學(xué)校的接觸率。手足口病的控制措施應(yīng)著重于幼兒,特別是3-4歲兒童暑假期間在社區(qū)的防護(hù)。
[Abstract]:Hand, foot and mouth disease is mainly caused by enterovirus 71 and Coxsackie virus A16. The majority of patients are under 5 years old. Hand, foot and mouth disease has become an important public health challenge in China in 2015. The number of HFMD reported in China was 1767931 and the death toll was 114. In order to study the spread of HFMD, it is necessary to study the infectivity of different age groups and the exposure rate of HFMD. As the only municipality directly under the Central Government in southwest China, Chongqing has a large population density compared with other provinces and cities in the southwest, and it has a typical seasonal pattern of incidence in southeast China, that is, there are two peaks per year. In spring and winter, respectively. The prevalence of HFMD in Chongqing was mainly children under 6 years old (933%). The infectious power of each age group before the outbreak of HFMD in Lu'an City of Anhui Province in 2008 was the same, but the infectious power of different age groups was different after the outbreak, so the infectious power of different age groups of HFMD in Chongqing may be different. Based on the age group data of HFMD in Chongqing from the 17th week of 2008 to the 52nd week of 2011, the infectious force of HFMD in Chongqing was calculated by using catalytic model. The time series susceptible infected recovered time series susceptible infected model was used to calculate the exposure rate of hand, foot and mouth disease over time in Chongqing, and the school vacation and climate factors (including mean temperature, relative humidity, precipitation) were analyzed. The seasonal effect of light on the contact rate. The results showed that the infectivity of HFMD in different age groups was the highest in 3-4 years old, and the highest in adults aged 35-39 years. 2) the exposure rate of HFMD in Chongqing was seasonal 3) the climatic factors had no effect on the exposure rate. The increase of exposure rate during winter and summer vacation means that the exposure rate of HFMD communities in Chongqing is higher than that in schools. Hand-foot-mouth disease control measures should focus on young children, especially 3-4-year-old children during summer vacation in the community protection.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：O175

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