本文選題：西南低渦 + 移動(dòng)路徑��； 參考：《中國(guó)氣象科學(xué)研究院》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：西南低渦是對(duì)我國(guó)降水天氣有重要影響的中小尺度天氣系統(tǒng)。目前國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)于西南渦的發(fā)生發(fā)展、三維結(jié)構(gòu)、溫濕結(jié)構(gòu)等研究較多,但對(duì)于西南低渦預(yù)報(bào)路徑研究甚少。我國(guó)已經(jīng)建立基于GRAPES-Meso中尺度模式區(qū)域集合預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)(GRAPES-REPS),然而目前缺乏一種適用于格點(diǎn)分析資料的西南低渦識(shí)別方法,也尚不清楚模式對(duì)西南低渦這類中尺度系統(tǒng)的集合預(yù)報(bào)效果,尚未針對(duì)西南低渦集合預(yù)報(bào)中的不確定性構(gòu)造更為合理的擾動(dòng)初值。為了系統(tǒng)地研究GRAPES區(qū)域集合預(yù)報(bào)對(duì)西南低渦的預(yù)報(bào)能力,本文首先設(shè)計(jì)了一種適應(yīng)于高分辨率格點(diǎn)分析資料的西南低渦識(shí)別方法,并通過(guò)一系列的檢驗(yàn)來(lái)驗(yàn)證該方法的合理性及有效性。利用該方法開(kāi)展GRAPES區(qū)域集合預(yù)報(bào)(GRAPES-REPS)對(duì)西南低渦移動(dòng)路徑預(yù)報(bào)檢驗(yàn)評(píng)估,并通過(guò)分析西南低渦強(qiáng)度、降水等方面的內(nèi)容整體評(píng)估GRAPES-REPS對(duì)西南低渦的預(yù)報(bào)效果。由于西南低渦是淺薄的中低層天氣系統(tǒng),本文在ETKF初值擾動(dòng)方案中增加觀測(cè)空間垂直層次,以解決中低層觀測(cè)信息不足的問(wèn)題,并設(shè)計(jì)了五組投影矩陣觀測(cè)變量組合對(duì)比試驗(yàn),試圖通過(guò)改進(jìn)ETKF初值擾動(dòng)方法來(lái)提高GRAPES區(qū)域集合預(yù)報(bào)對(duì)西南低渦的預(yù)報(bào)技巧。得到了以下主要結(jié)論:本文所設(shè)計(jì)的識(shí)別方法(HVW識(shí)別方法)能夠有效識(shí)別出高精度格點(diǎn)資料中的西南低渦過(guò)程,與格點(diǎn)實(shí)況的吻合率達(dá)87.5%,并減少了格點(diǎn)實(shí)況主觀分析的空?qǐng)?bào),與天氣圖實(shí)況對(duì)比,該方法命中率接近80%,充分說(shuō)明了該方法能夠有效捕捉西南低渦,驗(yàn)證了西南低渦HVW識(shí)別方法技術(shù)的有效性與合理性。隨著數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)逐步轉(zhuǎn)向精細(xì)化預(yù)報(bào),海量數(shù)據(jù)涌現(xiàn),該方法的應(yīng)用可以極大地減輕預(yù)報(bào)員的分析工作量。對(duì)西南低渦集合預(yù)報(bào)的檢驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn)GRAPES模式對(duì)西南低渦預(yù)報(bào)的命中率較高,但四川盆地九龍地區(qū)空?qǐng)?bào)較多�？刂祁A(yù)報(bào)和大部分集合成員對(duì)低渦生成時(shí)間預(yù)報(bào)偏早,對(duì)消亡預(yù)報(bào)偏晚。對(duì)西南低渦移動(dòng)路徑在24h預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)效內(nèi)較合理,24h預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)效之后存在不同程度的偏北,集合預(yù)報(bào)平均的移動(dòng)路徑誤差明顯小于控制預(yù)報(bào),體現(xiàn)出明顯優(yōu)勢(shì)。對(duì)西南低渦中心渦度值預(yù)報(bào)偏大,位勢(shì)高度值預(yù)報(bào)偏低。東移型西南低渦移動(dòng)路徑偏北,導(dǎo)致降水落區(qū)偏北,而停滯型西南低渦降水則表現(xiàn)出略偏西的特征。對(duì)ETKF初值擾動(dòng)方案改進(jìn)試驗(yàn)的分析結(jié)果表明,ETKF初值擾動(dòng)方案中增加觀測(cè)空間垂直層次能夠顯著提高預(yù)報(bào)效果。此外,五組觀測(cè)變量選擇對(duì)比試驗(yàn)的分析結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),隨著參與計(jì)算的變量的增加,α達(dá)到穩(wěn)定所需的時(shí)間更長(zhǎng),放大因子的最終狀態(tài)更小。對(duì)變量在整個(gè)模擬區(qū)域的均方根誤差和離散度的分析發(fā)現(xiàn),Test-1(U、V)的組合是最優(yōu)的,Test-2是次優(yōu)的方案。對(duì)一次典型的西南低渦過(guò)程的路徑預(yù)報(bào)分析發(fā)現(xiàn),增加投影矩陣的觀測(cè)變量使西南低渦中心的預(yù)報(bào)更加集中,徑預(yù)報(bào)的誤差也進(jìn)一步減小;對(duì)降水的分析發(fā)現(xiàn),增加觀測(cè)空間垂直層次試驗(yàn)(Test-1)對(duì)降雨落區(qū)偏北有所改善;增加投影矩陣觀測(cè)變量會(huì)使貴州中部的降水概率值有進(jìn)一步提高,然而也會(huì)導(dǎo)致強(qiáng)降水概率預(yù)報(bào)大值區(qū)偏北。結(jié)合路徑預(yù)報(bào)和降水落區(qū)預(yù)報(bào)兩方面來(lái)看,Test-5對(duì)路徑預(yù)報(bào)誤差最小,對(duì)降水概率預(yù)報(bào)值最大;Test-1、2路徑誤差略遜于Test-5,對(duì)降水落區(qū)預(yù)報(bào)優(yōu)于Test-5。
[Abstract]:The southwest vortex is small and medium scale weather system has an important impact on China's precipitation. At home and abroad for the development of the southwest vortex, the three-dimensional structure of the temperature and humidity structure, but the study on the prediction of vortex path. Little Southwest China has established a scale model of regional GRAPES-Meso ensemble prediction system based on (GRAPES-REPS), however the current lack of a recognition method for the southwest vortex lattice analysis data, it is not clear the ensemble model of this kind of scale system of Southwest Vortex in the southwest vortex, has yet to set forecast uncertainty in the structure is more reasonable. The initial disturbance in order to study the GRAPES ensemble prediction ability of southwest region the vortex, we designed a suit of Southwest Vortex identification method in high resolution lattice analysis data, and through a series of tests to check This method is reasonable and effective. To carry out the GRAPES region by using the method of ensemble prediction (GRAPES-REPS) test on the southwest vortex moving path prediction, and through the analysis of the southwest vortex intensity, precipitation forecast and other aspects of the overall assessment of the GRAPES-REPS of the southwest vortex. Because of the southwest vortex is low layer shallow weather system, the disturbance the initial increase in ETKF observed vertical space level scheme, in order to solve the problem of low layer observation information, and observation variable combination were compared between the five groups of projection matrix design, tries to change into the ETKF initial perturbation method to improve the GRAPES regional ensemble forecast skill of southwest vortex. The main conclusions are as follows: the identification method the design (HVW recognition method) can effectively identify the southwest vortex lattice in the process of high precision data, lattice live with The rate of up to 87.5%, and reduce the empty newspaper lattice live subjective analysis, and comparison of the method of live weather map, the hit rate of nearly 80%, which indicates that this method can effectively capture the southwest vortex, verified the technology of southwest vortex HVW recognition method is effective and reasonable. With the numerical prediction gradually turned to the fine forecast of mass the emergence of data, this method can reduce the workload of the forecaster greatly. Inspection of the southwest vortex ensemble found GRAPES mode on the southwest vortex prediction hit rate is higher, but the Kowloon area of Sichuan basin. The prediction and control of more space at most of the collection members of the vortex generation time forecast earlier, to forecast late death on the southwest vortex moving path in the 24h forecast period is reasonable, after the 24h forecast period there are different degrees of North, set the moving path is obviously less than the average forecast error The control prediction reflects the obvious advantage of the southwest vortex center. The vorticity value forecast is too large, the geopotential height prediction is low. The southwest vortex moving eastward moving path leading to precipitation area north, north, and southwest vortex stagnation type precipitation is characterized by somewhat to the West. The analysis results of ETKF initial perturbation scheme to improve the test show that the ETKF initial perturbation scheme in observation space increased vertical level can significantly improve the prediction effect. In addition, five groups of observation and analysis of variable selection results of comparison tests found that with the increase in the calculation of the variables, alpha stable reach required a longer period of time, the final state is smaller. The amplification factor variables in the root mean square error of the whole the simulation area and dispersion analysis, Test-1 (U, V) of the combination is the best, Test-2 is suboptimal. The path prediction of a typical southwest vortex process analysis, Increase the projection matrix of the observed variables to the southwest vortex center forecast is more concentrated, size of the forecasting error is further reduced; found on precipitation analysis, increase the observation space level test (Test-1) on the vertical rainfall in North has improved; increase the projection matrix of observation variables will make the probability of precipitation in central Guizhou have further improved however, can also lead to strong precipitation probability forecast value of large areas of North. Combining the path prediction and precipitation area forecast of two in terms of Test-5 on track prediction error, the maximum value of precipitation probability forecast; Test-1,2 path error in Test-5 Chalvexun, for rainfall forecast is better than that of Test-5.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)氣象科學(xué)研究院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：P456.7

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