本文關(guān)鍵詞： 臺(tái)風(fēng) 云量 數(shù)值模擬 云方案 對(duì)比分析　出處：《中國氣象科學(xué)研究院》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：GRAPES模式中新引進(jìn)云方案后,已有前人做了一些評(píng)估工作,但考慮到臺(tái)風(fēng)云系的特殊性和海表與地表差異,針對(duì)臺(tái)風(fēng)云系和海域上空云系卻并未做專門研究。本文首先用GRAPES_Meso模式對(duì)2015年13號(hào)臺(tái)風(fēng)蘇迪羅進(jìn)行了數(shù)值模擬,從臺(tái)風(fēng)生成發(fā)展、成熟和登陸減弱三個(gè)階段對(duì)模擬云量和云高(相當(dāng)黑體溫度,TBB)與實(shí)況資料進(jìn)行了初步對(duì)比分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)了一些問題,然后針對(duì)發(fā)現(xiàn)的問題或不足,再通過一些數(shù)值試驗(yàn)試著對(duì)云方案進(jìn)行了部分改進(jìn)和調(diào)整,初步得到以下幾點(diǎn)結(jié)論:1)GRAPES模式較好地再現(xiàn)了臺(tái)風(fēng)“蘇迪羅”從生成發(fā)展到成熟再到登陸的過程,模擬的臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑與實(shí)況吻合較好,臺(tái)風(fēng)強(qiáng)度的變化趨勢也得到了較好模擬再現(xiàn)。2)改進(jìn)云方案之前,總的看來,模式較好地模擬出了蘇迪羅云系整體范圍,但模擬存在的不足主要體現(xiàn)在:(a)總云量和高云量明顯較實(shí)況(再分析)云量偏強(qiáng),范圍偏大;(b)模擬云高較實(shí)況偏低。3)針對(duì)上述兩個(gè)問題,對(duì)GRAPES模式的云量方案進(jìn)行修改和完善,重點(diǎn)解決模式模擬的總云量和高云量偏多偏強(qiáng)和云頂高度偏低的問題,并同時(shí)對(duì)1513號(hào)臺(tái)風(fēng)蘇迪羅和1614號(hào)臺(tái)風(fēng)莫蘭蒂進(jìn)行了改進(jìn)前后的對(duì)比數(shù)值試驗(yàn)。4)數(shù)值試驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明,(a)對(duì)臺(tái)風(fēng)發(fā)展階段和成熟階段的模擬效果看,改進(jìn)前和改進(jìn)后三個(gè)高度的云量均有不同程度的減弱,覆蓋范圍也相應(yīng)有所減小,其中高云量的減弱最明顯,改進(jìn)后高云量和總云量與實(shí)況更加吻合。改進(jìn)后TBB即亮溫較改進(jìn)前稍有降低,即改進(jìn)后模擬的云頂更高,更加接近衛(wèi)星實(shí)況。(b)對(duì)于處于消散階段的臺(tái)風(fēng)即登陸臺(tái)風(fēng),其強(qiáng)度迅速減弱,改進(jìn)前和改進(jìn)后三個(gè)高度的云量均有不同程度的減弱,其中高云量的減弱更明顯,改進(jìn)后高云量和總云量與實(shí)況更加吻合。中低云量改進(jìn)效果不是很理想。改進(jìn)后TBB即亮溫較改進(jìn)前稍有降低,即改進(jìn)后模擬的云頂有少許提高,與實(shí)況云高更加接近。(c)改進(jìn)后的TBB均方根誤差在不同區(qū)域有不同程度的減小,整體預(yù)報(bào)效果略有提升。5)總之,盡管改進(jìn)云方案對(duì)臺(tái)風(fēng)云系三個(gè)階段的改進(jìn)效果不統(tǒng)一,但總體上改進(jìn)后的云方案模擬效果更好,尤其是改進(jìn)后總云量、高云量和云高明顯與實(shí)況更加接近。
[Abstract]:After the new cloud scheme was introduced into the GRAPES model, some evaluation work has been done, but considering the particularity of typhoon cloud system and the difference between sea surface and surface, The typhoon cloud system and the cloud system over the sea area have not been specially studied. In this paper, the GRAPES_Meso model is used to simulate typhoon No. 13 Sudiro on 2015 and to develop from the generation of typhoon. In the three stages of maturation and weakening of landfall, the simulated cloud amount and cloud height (quite blackbody temperature) are compared with the actual data, and some problems are found, and then the problems or deficiencies are pointed out. Through some numerical experiments, the cloud scheme has been partially improved and adjusted, and the following conclusions have been obtained preliminarily: 1 / 1 grapes model is a good reappearance of the process of typhoon Sudiro from generation to maturity to landfall. The simulated typhoon track is in good agreement with the actual situation, and the variation trend of typhoon intensity is also well simulated. 2) before the cloud scheme is improved, the overall range of Sudiro cloud system is well simulated by the model. However, the shortcomings of the simulation are mainly reflected in the fact that the total cloud amount and high cloud amount of the simulation are obviously stronger than those of the real (reanalysis), and the range of the simulated cloud height is lower than that of the real ones. 3) in view of the above two problems, we modify and perfect the cloud cover scheme of the GRAPES model. Focus on solving the model simulation of the total cloud amount and high cloud amount on the strong side and cloud top height on the low side, At the same time, the comparative numerical test of 1513 typhoon Sudiro and 1614 typhoon Moranti before and after improvement. 4) numerical test results show that the simulation effect of typhoon development stage and mature stage is seen. Before and after the improvement, the cloudiness of the three heights decreased in varying degrees, and the coverage decreased accordingly, among which the decrease of high cloud cover was the most obvious. The improved TBB is slightly lower than that before the improvement, that is, the simulated cloud top is higher, which is closer to the satellite reality. The intensity of the cloud decreased rapidly, and the cloudiness of the three heights decreased in varying degrees before and after the improvement, among which the decrease of high cloud cover was more obvious. The improved high cloud cover and total cloud cover are more consistent with the actual conditions. The improvement effect of low and medium cloud cover is not very satisfactory. The improved TBB (brightness temperature) is slightly lower than that before the improvement, that is, the simulated cloud top is slightly increased after the improvement. The root-mean-square error (RMS) of the improved TBB is reduced in different regions, and the overall prediction effect is slightly improved. 5) in short, although the improved cloud scheme is not uniform in the three stages of the wind and cloud system, But the simulation effect of the improved cloud scheme is better, especially the total cloud amount, high cloud cover and cloud height are more close to the actual situation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國氣象科學(xué)研究院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：P458.124

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