本文關(guān)鍵詞：深圳市極端氣候時空特征及其災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估　出處：《中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 極端氣候 災(zāi)害風(fēng)險 時間序列分析 氣象插值 深圳

【摘要】：深圳是我國典型快速城市化地區(qū),城市化發(fā)展帶來了人口集聚與城市擴張,加上深圳地處我國南部沿海,是氣候變化影響的重要區(qū)域,通過對深圳市開展極端氣候的時空分異與災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估研究,對于市域尺度防范極端氣候帶來的危害,完善城市可持續(xù)發(fā)展的防御體系具有重要意義。本文基于深圳市1953-2015共63年的氣象數(shù)據(jù),借助R語言的RclimDex1.0軟件進(jìn)行極端溫度和極端降水指數(shù)計算,利用線性趨勢法和局部加權(quán)回歸進(jìn)行時間序列分析,通過氣象插值軟件ANUSPLIN進(jìn)行空間分異可視化計算,運用ArcGIS10.3平臺,分析2004年至2015年各極端氣候指數(shù)時空變化。依據(jù)歷史氣象數(shù)據(jù)闡述極端風(fēng)的特征。而后,基于IPCC極端氣候管理的理論及深圳市60多年的極端氣候特征,構(gòu)建由危險性、暴露度及脆弱性的深圳市極端氣候災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估框架和指標(biāo)體系,分別對深圳市極端溫度、極端降水、極端風(fēng)災(zāi)害進(jìn)行災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估,依據(jù)歷史災(zāi)情數(shù)據(jù)和社會關(guān)注度的AHP法確定各類災(zāi)害的權(quán)重,得到極端氣候災(zāi)害風(fēng)險等級。主要研究結(jié)論如下:(1)極端氣候指數(shù)及其曲線擬合表明1953-2015年極端高溫和極端低溫均為上升趨勢,氣候變暖,近10幾年城市變暖減緩;極端降水的頻率和強度有下降趨勢,持續(xù)時間上升顯著。極端降水強度、頻率近十幾年有所抬頭。極端高溫西高東低,極端降水方面,東北部頻率較高、持續(xù)時間長,西北部強度大。2004年至2015年,日最高氣溫極高值在非山區(qū)降低,呈現(xiàn)出明顯的地形差異;降水頻率幾乎全境增加,降水強度部分地區(qū)降低,非山區(qū)持續(xù)時間增加。影響深圳市的極端風(fēng)以熱帶氣旋影響最大,且集中在夏季,近年來熱帶氣旋影響時間有延長的趨勢,空間上主要集中在沿海和高地以及龍崗區(qū)的部分區(qū)域。(2)深圳市極端氣候災(zāi)害風(fēng)險集中在深圳西北光明新區(qū)、西南新安和南山街道、中部、東北龍城和坑梓等街道及東部部分地區(qū)。其中,除中部地區(qū)(包括鹽田)、東部葵涌、大鵬部分區(qū)域,極端降水和極端風(fēng)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險起主要作用外,其他地區(qū)為極端溫度和極端降水風(fēng)險起主導(dǎo)作用。西北部、西南部分地區(qū)、東北部龍城、坑梓、坪山等區(qū)域,高危險性和高暴露度占主導(dǎo);深圳中部地區(qū),高暴露和高脆弱為主;東部葵涌、大鵬等地區(qū)距離海洋較近,以高危險高脆弱為主。
[Abstract]:Shenzhen is a typical rapid urbanization area in China. Urbanization brings population agglomeration and urban expansion, plus Shenzhen is located in the southern coastal area of China, which is an important area affected by climate change. Through the research on the spatial and temporal differentiation and disaster risk assessment of extreme climate in Shenzhen, it can prevent the harm caused by extreme climate on the city scale. It is of great significance to perfect the defense system of urban sustainable development. This paper is based on the meteorological data from 1953 to 2015 in Shenzhen. The extreme temperature and precipitation index are calculated by R language RclimDex1.0 software, and the time series analysis is carried out by using linear trend method and local weighted regression. Through the meteorological interpolation software ANUSPLIN to carry on the spatial differentiation visualization computation, uses the ArcGIS10.3 platform. The spatial and temporal variations of extreme climatic indices from 2004 to 2015 were analyzed. The characteristics of extreme winds were described based on historical meteorological data. Based on the theory of IPCC extreme climate management and the extreme climate characteristics of Shenzhen for more than 60 years, the risk assessment framework and index system of extreme climate disasters in Shenzhen are constructed by risk, exposure and vulnerability. The disaster risk assessment of extreme temperature, extreme precipitation and extreme wind disaster is carried out, and the weight of all kinds of disasters is determined according to the historical disaster data and the AHP method of social concern. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) the extreme climate index and its curve fitting show that the extreme high temperature and extreme low temperature are rising trend and the climate is warming from 1953 to 2015. In recent 10 years, urban warming has slowed down; The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation have a downward trend, and the duration is increasing significantly. The intensity of extreme precipitation, the frequency of which has been rising in recent ten years, the extreme high temperature, high temperature, high east and low, and extreme precipitation, the frequency of northeast is relatively high. From 2004 to 2015, the maximum daily temperature decreased in non-mountainous areas, showing a significant difference in topography. The frequency of precipitation increased almost all over the country, the intensity of precipitation decreased in some areas, and the duration of non-mountainous area increased. The extreme wind affecting Shenzhen City was the most affected by tropical cyclones, and concentrated in summer. In recent years, there is a tendency to prolong the time of tropical cyclone, mainly concentrated in coastal and highland areas and some regions of Longgang District.) the risk of extreme climate disasters in Shenzhen is concentrated in Guangming New area, northwest of Shenzhen. Southwest Xinan and Nanshan streets, Central, Northeast Longcheng and Hang Zi streets and parts of the east. Among them, the central region (including Yantian, East Kwai Chung, part of Dapeng). Extreme precipitation and extreme wind disaster risk play a major role, other areas for extreme temperature and extreme precipitation risk play a leading role. Northwest, southwest part of the region, northeast Longcheng, Pengzi, Pingshan and other regions. High risk and high exposure; In the central part of Shenzhen, high exposure and high vulnerability are dominant; East Kwai Chung, Dapeng and other areas close to the sea, to high risk and high vulnerability.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：P429;P463.3

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