【摘要】：在采用城鄉(xiāng)二分法估算區(qū)域范圍內(nèi)多個城市地表熱島強(qiáng)度(Surface Urban Heat Island,SUHI)時,如何選擇城鎮(zhèn)化影響最小的周邊鄉(xiāng)村背景是一個技術(shù)難點,提出了一種基于地形、土地利用、植被覆蓋和城市夜間燈光指數(shù)來確定鄉(xiāng)村背景的SUHI估算方法,并建立了基于SUHI和熱島比例指數(shù)(Urban Heat Island Proportion Index,UHPI)的城市熱島強(qiáng)度定量評估方法。利用上述方法,基于長時間序列MODIS和NOAA衛(wèi)星資料,開展了京津冀城市群11個平原城市熱島時空變化分析與評估,并開展了社會經(jīng)濟(jì)驅(qū)動因子對城市熱島大小的影響評估研究,同時結(jié)合未來京津冀一體化發(fā)展提出相應(yīng)參考建議。研究結(jié)果表明:(1)建立的SUHI估算方法能有效監(jiān)測城市群熱島年/季和晝/夜變化,近5年(2010—2014)年均SUHI≥3℃的熱島總面積1926km~2,但在熱島最強(qiáng)的夏季白天可達(dá)7386 km~2(占行政區(qū)域面積的5.8%);排名前四的分別是北京(2351 km~2)、天津(1883km~2)、唐山(889 km~2)和石家莊(611 km~2),顯示出超大、特大城市及資源性城市貢獻(xiàn)了大部分城市群熱島面積;各中心城區(qū)平均SUHI和UHPI分別為3.0℃和0.61,熱島評估達(dá)到較嚴(yán)重等級以上的城市占到73%,表明當(dāng)前城市群整體熱島處于嚴(yán)峻現(xiàn)狀;(2)1994、2004年和2014年夏季白天城市群強(qiáng)熱島面積分別為190、1975、4539 km~2,各中心城區(qū)平均SUHI分別為1.2、2.6、3.2℃,UHPI分別為0.29、0.58和0.69,熱島評估等級分別為"一般"、"較嚴(yán)重"和"嚴(yán)重"等級,反映了20年來京津冀城市群熱島迅速增強(qiáng)增大事實;(3)各城市年均熱島面積增加2—86 km~2/a,強(qiáng)熱島面積增加主要發(fā)生在超大城市,北京、天津強(qiáng)熱島區(qū)之間的最短空間距離從1994年的94 km逐步縮減到2014年的52 km,未來存在形成"京津區(qū)域熱島群"的可能,建議在京津之間建立"綠色生態(tài)屏障"來消除這種可能性;(4)城鎮(zhèn)人口數(shù)、國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值和用電量都極大地影響著京津冀城市熱島大小,擬合模型決定系數(shù)R2分別為0.9097、0.912和0.9661,意味著在未來京津冀一體化城市發(fā)展中可采取控制城市人口規(guī)模、減少能源消耗等措施減緩熱島效應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:In estimating the surface urban heat island intensity (suri) of many cities in a region by using the urban-rural dichotomy, it is a technical difficulty to select the surrounding rural background which has the least influence on urbanization. A new method based on terrain and land use is proposed. A suhi estimation method for determining the rural background by vegetation cover and urban night light index is proposed. A quantitative evaluation method of urban heat island intensity is established based on the urban heat island ratio index (UHPI) and the urban heat island ratio index (UHPI). Based on the long time series MODIS and NOAA satellite data, the temporal and spatial changes of urban heat islands in 11 plain cities of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration were analyzed and evaluated, and the impact of socio-economic driving factors on the size of urban heat islands was evaluated. At the same time, combined with the future development of integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the corresponding reference suggestions are put forward. The results show that: (1) the proposed suhi estimation method can effectively monitor the annual / seasonal and daytime / night variations of urban heat islands. In the past five years (2010-2014), the total area of the heat island was 1 926 km / m ~ 2 with an average annual SUHI 鈮，

本文編號：2138287