本文選題：碳排放 + 灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度��； 參考：《吉林財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：吉林省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展主要依托重工業(yè),存在能源消耗大,環(huán)境污染嚴(yán)重等問題,產(chǎn)生這種現(xiàn)象既有歷史原因,也有現(xiàn)實(shí)原因。從歷史上看,吉林省作為東北老工業(yè)基地,在新中國建設(shè)時(shí)期要為中國經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)打下堅(jiān)實(shí)基礎(chǔ),但是隨著社會(huì)的發(fā)展,過去粗放式的發(fā)展模式不僅不能給這個(gè)老工業(yè)省份帶來活力,反而會(huì)形成阻礙,吉林省碳排放量無法得到有效控制。從現(xiàn)實(shí)上看,吉林省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展落后,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不合理,高新技術(shù)發(fā)展緩慢,只有通過消耗大量能源,才能維持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),導(dǎo)致碳排放問題日益嚴(yán)重,對(duì)吉林省的可持續(xù)發(fā)展十分不利�？梢�,解決吉林省碳排放問題迫在眉睫,而研究碳排放的影響因素則是降低碳排放的關(guān)鍵所在,所以本文著重對(duì)碳排放的影響因素進(jìn)行分析,希望能對(duì)政府機(jī)關(guān)制定節(jié)能減排政策提供支持。本文首先界定了碳排放的概念和碳排放水平的衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn),確定了碳排放核算的方法,在此基礎(chǔ)上計(jì)算出吉林省碳排放總量,并進(jìn)一步分析了吉林省碳排放總量、人均碳排放量以及碳排放強(qiáng)度的現(xiàn)狀。然后,構(gòu)建STIRPAT模型,利用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度測(cè)量所有相關(guān)指標(biāo)與碳排放總量的相關(guān)程度,從而找出人均財(cái)富、人口、社會(huì)科技進(jìn)步三方面中關(guān)聯(lián)度最強(qiáng)的指標(biāo),利用這些指標(biāo)建立嶺回歸模型,獲得最終的長(zhǎng)期彈性系數(shù)。同時(shí),利用Tapio模型對(duì)人均財(cái)富、人口、社會(huì)及科技進(jìn)步與碳排放量之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行短期分析,并獲得短期彈性系數(shù)。結(jié)合分析長(zhǎng)期和短期彈性系數(shù)得到以下結(jié)論:第一,吉林省人口指標(biāo)對(duì)碳排放有長(zhǎng)期顯著影響,且人口指標(biāo)與碳排放變動(dòng)方向一致;第二,人均財(cái)富對(duì)碳排放的長(zhǎng)期影響程度最弱,當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展時(shí),人均財(cái)富與碳排放呈同方向變化,經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯或衰退時(shí),人均財(cái)富與碳排放呈反方向變化;第三,社會(huì)科技進(jìn)步對(duì)碳排放有長(zhǎng)期負(fù)向影響,但其發(fā)展速度較慢。根據(jù)上述結(jié)論分析吉林省碳排放存在的主要問題之后,提出以下建議:第一,吉林省要大力推動(dòng)科技進(jìn)步,提高能源利用效率;第二,促進(jìn)社會(huì)發(fā)展,宣傳低碳生活,從人民生活習(xí)慣入手,減少碳排放量;第三,大力發(fā)展第三產(chǎn)業(yè),實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化。
[Abstract]:The economic development of Jilin Province mainly depends on heavy industry, which has many problems, such as high energy consumption and serious environmental pollution. This phenomenon has both historical and practical reasons. Historically, Jilin Province, as an old industrial base in Northeast China, must lay a solid foundation for China's economic construction in the period of new China's construction, but with the development of society, In the past, the extensive development model not only can not bring vitality to this old industrial province, but will form a hindrance, and the carbon emissions of Jilin Province cannot be effectively controlled. In reality, the economic development of Jilin Province is backward, the industrial structure is unreasonable, and the development of high and new technology is slow. Only by consuming a large amount of energy can economic growth be maintained, and the problem of carbon emissions become increasingly serious. It is unfavorable to the sustainable development of Jilin Province. Therefore, it is urgent to solve the problem of carbon emissions in Jilin Province, and the key to reduce carbon emissions is to study the influencing factors of carbon emissions, so this paper focuses on the analysis of the influencing factors of carbon emissions. I hope to provide support to government agencies to formulate energy conservation and emission reduction policies. Firstly, this paper defines the concept of carbon emission and the measurement standard of carbon emission level, determines the method of carbon emission accounting, calculates the total carbon emission of Jilin Province, and further analyzes the total carbon emission of Jilin Province. Current status of per capita carbon emissions and carbon intensity. Then, the STIRPAT model is constructed, and the correlation degree between all the related indexes and the total carbon emission is measured by using the grey correlation degree, so as to find out the strongest correlation index among the three aspects of per capita wealth, population, and social scientific and technological progress. The ridge regression model is established by using these indexes, and the final long-term elastic coefficient is obtained. At the same time, Tapio model is used to analyze the relationship between wealth, population, social and technological progress and carbon emissions in the short term, and the short-term elasticity coefficient is obtained. Combined with the analysis of long-term and short-term elastic coefficient, the following conclusions are obtained: first, the population index of Jilin Province has a significant long-term impact on carbon emissions, and the population index is consistent with the change direction of carbon emissions; second, The long-term impact of per capita wealth on carbon emissions is the weakest. When the economy is stable, the per capita wealth and carbon emissions change in the same direction, and when the economy is stagnant or declining, the per capita wealth and carbon emissions change in the opposite direction; third, Progress in social science and technology has a long-term negative impact on carbon emissions, but its development rate is slow. Based on the above conclusions, the main problems of carbon emissions in Jilin Province are analyzed, and the following suggestions are put forward: first, Jilin Province should vigorously promote scientific and technological progress and improve energy use efficiency; second, promote social development and promote low-carbon living. Starting with people's living habits, reducing carbon emissions; third, vigorously developing the tertiary industry and rationalizing the economic structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：X321

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