發(fā)布時間：2018-06-15 20:32

  本文選題：水資源 + 生態(tài)足跡　； 參考：《山西師范大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：水不僅是人類社會生存發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)性自然資本,更是一個國家經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要戰(zhàn)略性資本,也是影響生態(tài)環(huán)境的重要因素。伴隨人類社會的不斷進步與國家經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展,水資源的供需矛盾越來越突出,目前,水資源危機已成為影響人類社會生存與發(fā)展的重要生態(tài)因子,在水資源貧乏的國家和區(qū)域表現(xiàn)更為嚴重。山西是我國嚴重缺水的典型省份,水資源特點為總量少,地區(qū)分布差異較大。隨著水資源供求矛盾加劇,地下水過度開采,居民節(jié)水意識薄弱,以及水資源的不合理利用,水污染和水生態(tài)環(huán)境日益惡化,嚴重威脅到人們的用水安全。因此必須科學規(guī)劃水資源利用狀況,提高居民節(jié)水意識,加大水污染治理,提高水資源重復(fù)利用率,實現(xiàn)水資源的可持續(xù)利用。本文運用水資源生態(tài)足跡,污染水生態(tài)足跡和生態(tài)承載力模型,對山西省2005-2015年的水資源利用狀況進行全方位分析,并結(jié)合水資源可持續(xù)利用的各項評價指標,綜合分析了山西省水資源可持續(xù)發(fā)展與利用的狀況。在此基礎(chǔ)上,利用迪氏指數(shù)分解法(LMDI模型)解析了山西省用水生態(tài)足跡變化的驅(qū)動因素。最后,通過曲線回歸預(yù)測法擬合了山西省用水生態(tài)足跡和污染水生態(tài)足跡的預(yù)測模型,并對山西省2016-2020年用水狀況進行預(yù)測。研究結(jié)果表明:(1)2005-2015年我國的人均用水生態(tài)足跡為0.7371 hm2/人,山西省僅為0.3084hm2/人,不到全國平均水平的一半,這說明山西省用水量遠遠低于全國用水量;整體上看,山西省總用水生態(tài)足跡呈逐年上升趨勢。其中,農(nóng)業(yè)用水生態(tài)足跡所占的份額最多,為59.87%;其次為工業(yè)用水生態(tài)足跡,占總用水生態(tài)足跡的21.75%。(2)2005-2015年山西省平均水資源生態(tài)承載力為0.0358 hm2/人,僅占全國的2.75%,這說明山西省的水資源極度匱乏。水資源生態(tài)承載力總體呈上升趨勢,2013年人均水資源生態(tài)承載力達到最大值,為0.0595 hm2/人,最小值出現(xiàn)在2011年,為0.0208hm2/人。在山西11個地級市中,水資源生態(tài)承載力最大的是晉城市,為0.930 hm2/人,最小的是太原市僅為0.0139 hm2/人,兩者相差達66倍之多,說明山西省水資源生態(tài)承載力的地區(qū)差異較大。(3)山西省多年人均污染水生態(tài)足跡整體呈下降趨勢,平均值為0.4909 hm2/人,高于其人均用水生態(tài)足跡的平均值;2010-2015年山西省污染水消耗一直處于生態(tài)赤字狀態(tài),污染水生態(tài)壓力指數(shù)都大于1,水資源現(xiàn)有供給量無法滿足污水達標排放后自然凈化的水資源需求量,這說明污染水生態(tài)足跡已經(jīng)成為導(dǎo)致山西省水資源危機不可忽略的因素之一。由此可見,地區(qū)的水資源生態(tài)足跡賬戶的劃分應(yīng)該主要考慮:水質(zhì)型(污染型)用水賬戶和結(jié)構(gòu)型(資源型)用水賬戶,這種水資源生態(tài)足跡的賬戶劃分方法更符合水資源匱乏的實際情況。(4)山西省2005-2015年平均水資源生態(tài)赤字為0.274 hm2/人,總體呈上升趨勢;水資源生態(tài)壓力指數(shù)遠高于臨界值1,說明山西省水資源狀況一直處于極度匱乏的狀態(tài);平均水資源負載指數(shù)為15.69,屬于Ⅰ級,說明全省水資源消耗量大于供給量,威脅水資源的可持續(xù)利用,說明山西省水資源開發(fā)潛力小,需要大規(guī)模從省外調(diào)水才能滿足山西省的用水需求。萬元GDP產(chǎn)業(yè)用水生態(tài)足跡值為0.1363 hm2/a,占全國的48.89%,并且整體呈逐年下降趨勢,這與山西省近年來大力發(fā)展綠色經(jīng)濟,調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)布局,加大水污染治理和提高水資源重復(fù)利用的科技投入有重要關(guān)系。(5)通過迪氏指數(shù)分解法研究表明,山西省水資源變化的驅(qū)動因子包括經(jīng)濟效應(yīng),技術(shù)效應(yīng),結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)和人口效應(yīng)。經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)、人口效應(yīng)和結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)的分解值都大于零,對山西省水資源生態(tài)足跡的增長起到推動作用,不利于山西水資源的可持續(xù)利用與發(fā)展。技術(shù)效應(yīng)的分解值小于零,對山西省水資源生態(tài)足跡的增長起到抑制作用,同時對山西水資源的可持續(xù)利用與發(fā)展起到積極作用。(6)通過曲線回歸預(yù)測法篩選出山西省水資源生態(tài)足跡的最優(yōu)曲線估計模型為:y=0.114-0.016*(x-2004)+0.004*(x-2004)+0.0000198*(x-2004)3,相關(guān)系數(shù)R2=0.867;污染水生態(tài)足跡的最優(yōu)曲線估計模型為:y=1902.385-2.373*(x-2009)-8.006*(x-2009)2,相關(guān)系數(shù)R2=0.988。結(jié)果顯示,未來五年山西省總用水生態(tài)足跡和污染水生態(tài)足跡呈下降趨勢。
[Abstract]:Water is not only the basic natural capital for the survival and development of human society, but also an important strategic capital for the economic development of a country. It is also an important factor affecting the ecological environment. With the continuous progress of the human society and the rapid development of the national economy, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources becomes more and more prominent. At present, the water resource crisis has become an impact. The important ecological factors for the survival and development of human society are more serious in countries and regions with poor water resources. Shanxi is a typical province of serious water shortage in China. The characteristics of water resources are small and regional distribution is different. With the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources, groundwater exploitation, weak awareness of water saving and water resources Unreasonable use, water pollution and the worsening ecological environment of water, seriously threaten people's water safety. Therefore, we must scientifically plan the utilization of water resources, improve the consciousness of water saving, increase the control of water pollution, improve the reuse rate of water resources, and realize the sustainable utilization of water resources. The model of state footprint and ecological carrying capacity is used to make a comprehensive analysis of the water resources utilization in Shanxi province for 2005-2015 years. Combined with the evaluation indexes of the sustainable utilization of water resources, the status of the sustainable development and utilization of water resources in Shanxi province is analyzed. On this basis, the LMDI model is used to analyze Shanxi province. The driving factors of the change of ecological footprint of water use. Finally, the prediction model of the ecological footprint of water use and the ecological footprint of polluted water in Shanxi province is fitted by the curve regression prediction method, and the water use status of Shanxi province for 2016-2020 years is predicted. The results show that (1) the ecological footprint of water per person in China is 0.7371 hm2/ in 2005-2015 years and Shanxi province only For 0.3084hm2/ people, less than half of the national average, this shows that the water consumption of Shanxi is far below the national water consumption. Overall, the ecological footprint of total water use in Shanxi province is increasing year by year. Among them, the ecological footprint of agricultural water use is 59.87%, followed by the ecological footprint of industrial water, accounting for 21.7 of the ecological footprint of total water use. The average water resources ecological carrying capacity of Shanxi Province in 5%. (2) 2005-2015 years is 0.0358 hm2/ people, accounting for only 2.75% of the country. This shows that the water resources in Shanxi province are extremely scarce. The ecological carrying capacity of water resources is on the rise. In 2013, the ecological carrying capacity of water resources per person reached the maximum value of 0.0595 hm2/ people, the minimum value appeared in 2011, for 0.0208hm2/ people. Among the 11 cities in Shanxi, the largest ecological carrying capacity of water resources is Jincheng, which is 0.930 hm2/ people, and the smallest is 0.0139 hm2/ people in Taiyuan. The difference between the two is more than 66 times, indicating that the regional differences in ecological carrying capacity of water resources in Shanxi province are large. (3) the ecological footprint of the polluted water in Shanxi province for many years is decreasing, the average value is 0.4909 hm2/ people are higher than the average ecological footprint of water use per capita. In 2010-2015 years, the pollution water consumption in Shanxi has been in the state of ecological deficit, and the ecological pressure index of polluted water is more than 1. The current supply of water resources can not meet the natural purification of water resources after the discharge of the standard sewage, which shows that the ecological footprint of polluted water has become a good result. One of the factors that lead to the water resource crisis in Shanxi province can not be ignored. Therefore, the division of the ecological footprint accounts of water resources in the region should be mainly considered: water quality (polluted) water account and structural (resource type) water account. The method of dividing the account of the ecological footprint of this water resource is more in line with the actual situation of water shortage. (4) mountain The average water resource ecological deficit of 2005-2015 years in western province is 0.274 hm2/ people, and the total water resource ecological pressure index is far higher than the critical value of 1, which indicates that the water resources in Shanxi province is in a state of extreme shortage, and the average water resource load index is 15.69, which belongs to grade I, indicating that the water resources consumption of the province is greater than the supply and threatens the water. The sustainable utilization of resources shows that the development potential of water resources in Shanxi province is small. It is necessary to meet the demand of water use in Shanxi Province on a large scale. The ecological footprint value of the 10000 yuan GDP industrial water use is 0.1363 hm2/a, accounting for 48.89% of the whole country, and the overall trend is declining year by year. This is with Shanxi province to develop green economy and adjust the industry in recent years. There is an important relationship between increasing water pollution control and improving water resources reuse. (5) through the dedi decomposition method, the research shows that the driving factors of the change of water resources in Shanxi province include economic effect, technical effect, structure effect and population effect. The economic effect, population effect and structural effect are all greater than zero, The growth of the ecological footprint of water resources in Shanxi province has played a driving role, which is not conducive to the sustainable utilization and development of water resources in Shanxi. The decomposition value of the technical effect is less than zero, which plays an inhibitory role in the growth of the ecological footprint of water resources in Shanxi Province, and plays a positive role in the sustainable utilization and development of water resources in Shanxi. (6) through the curve regression analysis The optimal curve estimation model of the ecological footprint of water resources in Shanxi province is: y=0.114-0.016* (x-2004) +0.004* (x-2004) +0.0000198* (x-2004) 3, correlation coefficient R2=0.867; the optimal curve estimation model of the ecological footprint of polluted water is y=1902.385-2.373* (x-2009) -8.006* (x-2009) 2, correlation coefficient R2=0.988. results show, the future five years mountain The total ecological footprint of water and the ecological footprint of polluted water showed a downward trend.
【學位授予單位】：山西師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TV213.4;X22

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