本文選題：南四湖流域 + 水環(huán)境�。� 參考：《濟(jì)南大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著南四湖流域經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷發(fā)展,流域水環(huán)境質(zhì)量發(fā)生了顯著的變化。本文利用南四湖流域2001-2015年間水環(huán)境與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù),分析了流域典型污染物排放量和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展變化趨勢(shì),并建立了南四湖流域水環(huán)境-經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。以主成分分析原理和環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)度理論為基礎(chǔ),建立了南四湖流域水環(huán)境-經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度模型,并對(duì)南四湖流域各市水環(huán)境-經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度變化進(jìn)行分析。最后基于對(duì)環(huán)境庫(kù)茲涅茨曲線的實(shí)證分析,探究南四湖流域水環(huán)境質(zhì)量與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系,并根據(jù)研究結(jié)果提出了水環(huán)境與經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展建議。主要研究成果如下:(1)南四湖流域生活廢水排放量在2001-2011年低于工業(yè)廢水排放量,而2011年之后超過工業(yè)廢水排放量,成為南四湖流域水環(huán)境污染的主要來源。生活污水排放量呈現(xiàn)不斷增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì),且增幅越來越大,而工業(yè)廢水排放量在2001-2010年不斷增加,2010年之后開始逐漸減少。(2)2001-2015年濟(jì)寧市水環(huán)境與經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)度在初級(jí)協(xié)調(diào)到高級(jí)協(xié)調(diào)之間變化,水環(huán)境-經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度總體上都處于協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展階段;棗莊市水環(huán)境與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展協(xié)調(diào)度經(jīng)歷了從中級(jí)協(xié)調(diào)到高級(jí)協(xié)調(diào),而后不斷惡化至瀕臨失調(diào),近年來又回到中高級(jí)協(xié)調(diào)的“V”型變化趨勢(shì);菏澤市水環(huán)境-經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展協(xié)調(diào)度經(jīng)歷了從輕度失調(diào)到趨近協(xié)調(diào),而后又倒退到輕度失調(diào)的狀態(tài)的倒“V”型變化過程。(3)對(duì)比濟(jì)寧、棗莊和菏澤三個(gè)市的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與水環(huán)境質(zhì)量變化趨勢(shì)曲線,可以看出濟(jì)寧市和棗莊市的水環(huán)境-經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度明顯高于菏澤市。菏澤市近年來經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展非常迅猛,造成水環(huán)境質(zhì)量快速下降,污染逐步加重,屬于經(jīng)濟(jì)優(yōu)先,水環(huán)境滯后型。(4)各水環(huán)境指標(biāo)與人均GDP的環(huán)境庫(kù)茲涅茨曲線實(shí)證分析中,只有工業(yè)廢水排放量與人均GDP的擬合曲線呈現(xiàn)顯著的倒“U”型曲線,且工業(yè)廢水排放量的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)出現(xiàn)在人均GDP達(dá)到4832.29美元,對(duì)應(yīng)時(shí)間為2012年。工業(yè)COD排放量和工業(yè)氨氮排放量隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)呈現(xiàn)不斷下降的趨勢(shì)。(5)生活廢水排放量隨著人均GDP的增長(zhǎng)呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢(shì),對(duì)應(yīng)的生活氨氮排放量也是處于上升趨勢(shì)。生活廢水排放量和生活氨氮排放量目前處于環(huán)境庫(kù)茲涅茨曲線的前半部分,還沒有達(dá)到拐點(diǎn)�？墒侨绻患皶r(shí)采取有效的控制措施,未來有可能對(duì)南四湖水環(huán)境造成嚴(yán)重的危害。
[Abstract]:With the economic development of the Nansihu River basin, the water environment quality of the basin has changed significantly. Based on the index data of water environment and economic development in Nansi Lake Basin from 2001 to 2015, this paper analyzes the discharge amount of typical pollutants and the trend of economic development, and establishes an evaluation index system for the coordinated development of water environment and economy in Nansi Lake basin. Based on the principle of principal component analysis (PCA) and the theory of environmental and economic coordination, a model of coordination degree between water environment and economic system in Nansi Lake basin is established, and the variation of coordination degree of water environment and economic system in each city of Nansi Lake basin is analyzed. Finally, based on the empirical analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve, the relationship between the water environmental quality and the economic development in the Nansihu Basin is explored, and suggestions for the coordinated development of the water environment and the economy are put forward according to the results of the study. The main research results are as follows: (1) the discharge of domestic wastewater in Nansihu Basin was lower than that of industrial wastewater in 2001-2011, but after 2011, it exceeded the discharge of industrial wastewater, which became the main source of water pollution in Nansihu Lake Basin. Domestic sewage discharge shows a growing trend, and the increase is increasing. However, the discharge of industrial wastewater increased from 2001 to 2010, and began to decrease gradually after 2010. The degree of coordination between the water environment and the economy in Jining from 2001 to 2015 changed from primary coordination to high-level coordination. The degree of coordination between water environment and economic system is generally at the stage of coordination and development; the degree of coordination between water environment and economic development in Zaozhuang City has experienced from intermediate coordination to high-level coordination, and then continues to deteriorate to be on the verge of maladjustment. In recent years, the trend of "V" type of coordination has been returned, and the degree of coordination between water environment and economic development in Heze City has experienced from mild maladjustment to approaching coordination. And then retrograde to the inverted "V" type change process of mild maladjustment.) comparing the trend curves of economic development and water environment quality in three cities, Jining, Zaozhuang and Heze, It can be seen that the coordination degree of water environment-economic system in Jining and Zaozhuang is obviously higher than that in Heze. In recent years, the economic development of Heze City is very rapid, resulting in the rapid decline of water environment quality, the gradual aggravation of pollution, which belongs to the economic priority, and the water environment lagging type. 4) in the empirical analysis of each water environment index and the environmental Kuznets curve of per capita GDP, Only the fitting curve of industrial wastewater discharge and per capita GDP showed a significant "U" curve, and the turning point of industrial wastewater discharge occurred when the per capita GDP reached 4832.29 US dollars, corresponding time was 2012. Industrial COD emissions and industrial ammonia-nitrogen emissions showed a decreasing trend with the economic growth. 5) the domestic wastewater emissions increased with the increase of per capita GDP, and the corresponding ammonia-nitrogen emissions were also in an upward trend. The discharge of domestic wastewater and ammonia nitrogen is in the first half of the environmental Kuznets curve and has not reached the inflection point. However, if effective control measures are not taken in time, it may cause serious harm to the water environment of Nansihu Lake in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：濟(jì)南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F127;X52

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