本文選題：省際貿(mào)易 + 投入產(chǎn)出模型��； 參考：《北京建筑大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：貿(mào)易為區(qū)域之間的二氧化碳排放轉(zhuǎn)移創(chuàng)建了相應(yīng)的傳輸機(jī)制,伴隨貿(mào)易所產(chǎn)生的不僅有資本和貨物的流動,而且還包括生產(chǎn)過程中所隱含的碳排放的流動。隨著貿(mào)易規(guī)模的不斷擴(kuò)大和能源使用需求的增長,貿(mào)易中的隱含碳流動對中國二氧化碳排放的影響日益顯著,應(yīng)該看到,貿(mào)易的快速發(fā)展是以嚴(yán)峻的環(huán)境污染形勢為代價的。為了應(yīng)對當(dāng)前嚴(yán)峻的環(huán)境危機(jī),中國制定了2020年和2030年碳排放的總量和強度控制目標(biāo),國家目標(biāo)已下達(dá)至省級層面,因此必須合理確定各省區(qū)的碳減排責(zé)任,一方面需考慮各個地區(qū)實際的碳排放量,另一方面,伴隨產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生的省區(qū)之間碳排放的空間轉(zhuǎn)移也是必須要考慮的重要因素。本文基于國內(nèi)外貿(mào)易隱含碳的研究成果,用定量分析和空間分析的方法對我國30省區(qū)市的隱含碳以及省區(qū)之間貿(mào)易隱含碳排放轉(zhuǎn)移在不同時期的變動情況作出了研究與分析,并提出了促進(jìn)我國碳減排的政策建議,主要研究結(jié)論如下:(1)2002年至2010年,中國碳足跡數(shù)量上逐步增加,空間布局上呈現(xiàn)出明顯的“東—中—西”依次降低的梯度發(fā)展格局,碳足跡總量較高的省份多為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展程度較快的省份,主要分布于我國東部沿海區(qū)域,中西部地區(qū)碳足跡總量較低。(2)人均碳排放量不斷攀升,由2002年的3.44噸CO2上升到2010年的5.98噸CO2,增幅達(dá)74%,且人均碳足跡的區(qū)域差異逐步縮小,與之相反,我國碳排放強度呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢。2002年至2010年中國的隱含碳排放強度空間分布變化較小,三個階段的共同規(guī)律是碳排放強度最高的地方集中在北方地區(qū),其次是中部地區(qū),東部和南部沿海地區(qū)最低。(3)中國省際貿(mào)易隱含碳轉(zhuǎn)移規(guī)模大比例增加,省區(qū)之間產(chǎn)業(yè)貿(mào)易往來對各省的隱含碳排放有顯著的影響。2002—2010年,16個省份的省際貿(mào)易隱含碳差額模式保持不變。其中,黑龍江、云南、上海等9個省區(qū)一直是省際貿(mào)易隱含碳赤字,遼寧、江蘇、吉林、重慶、浙江、湖北、四川7個省區(qū)一直是省際貿(mào)易隱含碳盈余。(4)省際間貿(mào)易隱含碳排放轉(zhuǎn)移呈現(xiàn)明顯的階段性特征。2002年中國隱含碳流動規(guī)律是由南部沿海、京津區(qū)域和東北地區(qū)向北部沿海、西北地區(qū)和中部地區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)移;2002年-2007年,中國各省貿(mào)易隱含碳主要由北部沿海、東部沿海及東北地區(qū)、西北地區(qū)向東部沿海和京津地區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)移;2007年-2010年,中國碳排放轉(zhuǎn)移的空間分布格局發(fā)生了顯著的變化,隱含碳開始向中西部地區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)移,該階段隱含碳的主要流入地區(qū)是西北和西南地區(qū)。
[Abstract]:Trade creates a corresponding transport mechanism for the transfer of carbon dioxide emissions between regions, which is accompanied not only by the flow of capital and goods, but also by the flow of carbon emissions implied in the production process. With the expansion of trade scale and the increase of energy demand, the impact of implied carbon flow in trade on China's carbon dioxide emissions is increasingly significant. It should be seen that the rapid development of trade is at the cost of severe environmental pollution. In response to the current severe environmental crisis, China has set targets for the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions by 2020 and 2030. The national target has been reached at the provincial level, so it is necessary to reasonably determine the responsibilities of the provinces and regions for reducing carbon emissions. On the one hand, it is necessary to consider the actual carbon emissions from different regions, on the other hand, the spatial transfer of carbon emissions between provinces and regions that accompany the trade in products and services is also an important factor to be considered. Based on the research results of implied carbon in trade at home and abroad, this paper studies and analyzes the change of implied carbon in 30 provinces, autonomous regions and cities of China and the transfer of implied carbon emissions between provinces and autonomous regions in different periods by means of quantitative analysis and spatial analysis. The main conclusions are as follows: from 2002 to 2010, the amount of China's carbon footprint gradually increased, and the spatial distribution showed a gradient pattern of "east-center-west" decreasing in turn. The provinces with higher total carbon footprint are the provinces with faster economic development, mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas of China, and the total carbon footprint in the central and western regions is low. From 3.44 tons of CO2 in 2002 to 5.98 tons of CO2 in 2010, an increase of 74%, and the regional differences in the per capita carbon footprint gradually narrowed. The spatial distribution of implied carbon emission intensity in China from 2002 to 2010 is small. The common rule of the three stages is that the highest carbon emission intensity is concentrated in the northern region, followed by the central region. The eastern and southern coastal areas are the lowest.) the scale of implied carbon transfer in China's inter-provincial trade has increased by a large proportion. Industrial trade between provinces has a significant impact on the implied carbon emissions of each province. From 2002 to 2010 the implied carbon balance model of interprovincial trade in 16 provinces remains unchanged. Among them, nine provinces, such as Heilongjiang, Yunnan, Shanghai, and so on, have always been the implied carbon deficit in inter-provincial trade, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Jilin, Chongqing, Zhejiang, Hubei, The implied carbon emissions transfer of inter-provincial trade in Sichuan Province has always been the implied carbon surplus of inter-provincial trade. (4) the implied carbon emissions transfer in inter-provincial trade shows obvious stage characteristics. In 2002, the law of implied carbon flow in China was from the southern coast, the Beijing-Tianjin region and the northeast region to the northern coast. From 2002 to 2007, the trade implied carbon in the provinces of China was mainly transferred from the northern coast, the eastern coast and the northeast region, the northwest region to the eastern coast and Beijing and Tianjin areas; from 2007 to 2010, Significant changes have taken place in the spatial distribution pattern of carbon emission transfer in China. The implied carbon began to transfer to the central and western regions. The main inflow areas of implied carbon in this stage are northwest and southwest regions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京建筑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F724;X196

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