本文選題：烤煙 + 種植效率　； 參考：《西南大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：烤煙是一種典型的農業(yè)經濟作物,是中國大宗出口農產品之一,煙草業(yè)對中國稅收有著極大的貢獻。當前中國煙草業(yè)發(fā)展態(tài)勢良好,但是煙草農業(yè)尚處于高成本、低科技的發(fā)展形勢中,仍存在生產成本偏高、種植效率偏低的問題。此外,煙草業(yè)還是碳排放量較高的行業(yè),從生產到售后都有著眾多的溫室氣體排放,如烤煙種植時大量使用農藥、化肥等會產生較多溫室氣體(如甲烷、氧化亞氮等),煙草工業(yè)部分機械和能源的使用等會產生碳排放,以及售后煙民吸煙過程中也會產生大量碳排放,每一環(huán)節(jié)都對環(huán)境產生影響。中國于2003年正式簽署《煙草控制框架公約》,在全球控煙控碳環(huán)境下,中國因碳排放量大而存在較大的碳減排壓力。在這樣的控煙控碳環(huán)境下,煙草業(yè)要想確保在國民經濟中的地位,實現行業(yè)發(fā)展目標,必須在烤煙種植發(fā)展的改善過程中,兼顧經濟與環(huán)境的協調發(fā)展,注重經濟的可持續(xù)發(fā)展,走低碳經濟之路。那么,如何才能確保中國烤煙種植走低碳環(huán)保經濟之路,實現持續(xù)平穩(wěn)發(fā)展的目標?在實現經濟與環(huán)境協調發(fā)展目標時,烤煙種植效率與碳排放效率各自呈現什么狀況?兩效率變動趨勢間存在何種關系?哪些因素能夠促進烤煙種植效率?哪些因素能夠有效減少碳排放效率?通過對以上問題的研究,有助于中國烤煙種植業(yè)適應農業(yè)經濟發(fā)展新形勢、確保中國烤煙種植走低碳經濟環(huán)保之路、實現持續(xù)平穩(wěn)發(fā)展。綜上,基于對以上問題的思考,本文旨在考察相同因素對中國烤煙種植效率和碳排放效率是否存在不同影響,從而為中國烤煙種植管理提供參考依據,最終對中國烤煙種植效率和碳排放效率進行有效控制�；谝陨涎芯磕康�,本文首先對國內外已有研究進行梳理,分析中國烤煙種植研究現狀和可進一步研究的問題。其次根據中國烤煙種植業(yè)歷年數據,依托于DEA-Malmquist指數分析實證分析其種植效率和碳排放效率,總結出中國烤煙種植效率和碳排放效率基本特點與演變規(guī)律;再次在此基礎上,結合靜態(tài)Tobit模型和動態(tài)GMM模型深入分析中國烤煙種植效率及其碳排放效率的影響因素;最后根據前述實證研究結果為烤煙種植業(yè)管理和持續(xù)健康發(fā)展對策制定提供參考意見。本文的主要研究結論如下:1.中國烤煙種植效率增長主要受技術進步和政策調控影響。本文通過對烤煙種植效率的測算發(fā)現,種植效率呈現周期性波動,周期為兩年,并且以2.9%的平均速度增長;通過對種植效率分解發(fā)現,技術進步是影響種植效率的主要動力,技術進步呈增長狀的省份種植效率也增長,技術進步下降的省份種植效率也呈下降狀。除了技術進步外,政策調控也對烤煙種植效率具有極大影響,種植效率基本都跟隨著政策要求而波動。2.碳排放效率也存在波動現象,但未形成周期性波動。通過對碳排放效率測算發(fā)現,碳排放效率存在無周期的波動,在研究期間大部分時候碳排放效率都在相對下降,只有4年出現效率增長。3.促進農民增收、提供政策支持、強化防災減災體系能有效提高種植效率并降低碳排放效率。通過實證分析對比分析發(fā)現,首先,烤煙產值增加能有效抑制碳排放效率,而財政支農資金的增加不僅能促進種植效率提升,還能有效降低碳排放效率,是一個兩全其美的可控因素;其次,受災面積的增加不但會降低種植效率,同時還會提高碳排放效率,而碳排放的增加會導致自然災害的增加,最終陷入惡性循環(huán);最后,增加修理維護支出能有效促進種植效率提升,而增加農膜使用量則對種植效率無顯著作用,卻會導致碳排放效率的增加。最后,本文建議完善烤煙種植技術研發(fā)與推廣機制,提高種植技術效率;采取差異化管理,針對性調控各省效率;加大財政支農力度,有效實現效率管理;加強烤煙農業(yè)防災減災體系,促進烤煙種植良性發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Flue-cured tobacco is one of the typical agricultural economic crops and one of the major export agricultural products in China. Tobacco industry has a great contribution to China's tax revenue. At present, China's tobacco industry has a good trend of development, but tobacco agriculture is still at high cost. In the development situation of low science and technology, there are still high production costs and low planting efficiency. In addition, tobacco industry is still in the low development situation. Grass industry or high carbon emissions industry, from production to after sale, there are many greenhouse gas emissions, such as the large amount of pesticides used in the planting of flue-cured tobacco, chemical fertilizer will produce more greenhouse gases (such as methane, Nitrous Oxide, etc.), and the use of some machinery and energy in the tobacco industry will produce carbon emissions, as well as in the process of smoking after smoking. In 2003, China formally signed the tobacco control framework convention. In the global control of tobacco control, China has a large carbon emission reduction pressure under the global control of carbon control environment. In such a control of carbon control environment, the tobacco industry wants to ensure its status in the national economy and realize the industry. The development goal must be in the process of improving the development of flue-cured tobacco planting, taking into account the coordinated development of economy and environment, paying attention to the sustainable development of the economy and reducing the carbon economy. What is the relationship between the efficiency of flue-cured tobacco planting and the efficiency of carbon emissions? What is the relationship between the two efficiency changes? What factors can promote the efficiency of tobacco planting? Which factors can effectively reduce the efficiency of carbon emissions? Through the study of the above problems, it will help the Chinese tobacco planting industry to adapt to the new situation of agricultural economic development and ensure that the Chinese tobacco planting industry is able to adapt to the new situation of agricultural economy. On the basis of the above problems, this paper aims to investigate whether the same factors have different effects on the efficiency of tobacco planting and the efficiency of carbon emissions in China, so as to provide reference for the management of Chinese flue-cured tobacco planting, and finally to the efficiency of tobacco planting and carbon in China. On the basis of the above research purposes, this paper first combed the existing research at home and abroad, analyzed the current situation of Chinese flue-cured tobacco planting and the problems that could be further studied. Secondly, based on the years data of the Chinese flue-cured tobacco planting industry, it is based on the DEA-Malmquist index to analyze the efficiency of planting and the efficiency of carbon emissions. The basic characteristics and evolution rules of Chinese flue-cured tobacco planting efficiency and carbon emission efficiency were summarized. On the basis of this, the influence factors of tobacco planting efficiency and carbon emission efficiency in China were analyzed in combination with static Tobit model and dynamic GMM model. Finally, according to the previous empirical research, the management of tobacco planting industry and sustainable healthy development were made. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1. the growth of Chinese flue-cured tobacco planting efficiency is mainly influenced by technological progress and policy regulation. Through the calculation of the efficiency of flue-cured tobacco planting, this paper finds that the planting efficiency has a periodic fluctuation, the cycle is two years, and the average rate of growth is 2.9%; the efficiency of planting is decomposed by the planting efficiency. It is found that technological progress is the main driving force that affects planting efficiency, the growing efficiency of the provinces with technological progress is increasing, and the efficiency of planting in provinces with declining technology is also decreasing. In addition to technological progress, policy regulation also has a great influence on the efficiency of tobacco planting, and the efficiency of planting is basically fluctuating with the policy requirements of.2. The carbon efficiency is also fluctuating, but there is no periodic fluctuation. Through the calculation of carbon emission efficiency, it is found that there is a periodic fluctuation in the efficiency of carbon emission. In the period of the study, the efficiency of carbon emission is falling relatively. Only 4 years' efficiency increase.3. promotes farmers' income increase, provides policy support, and strengthens the system of disaster prevention and reduction. It can effectively improve the efficiency of planting and reduce the efficiency of carbon emission. First, the increase in output value of flue-cured tobacco can effectively inhibit the efficiency of carbon emission, and the increase of financial support can not only promote the efficiency of planting, but also effectively reduce the efficiency of carbon emission. The increase will not only reduce the efficiency of planting, but also increase the efficiency of carbon emissions, but the increase of carbon emissions will lead to the increase of natural disasters and eventually fall into a vicious cycle. Finally, the increase of maintenance expenditure can effectively promote the efficiency of planting, while increasing the use of the membrane has no significant effect on the efficiency of planting, but it will lead to carbon emission efficiency. In the end, the paper proposes to improve the research and development and popularization mechanism of flue-cured tobacco planting technology, improve the efficiency of planting technology, adopt differential management, regulate the efficiency of various provinces, strengthen the financial support for agriculture, effectively realize the efficiency management, strengthen the system of disaster prevention and disaster reduction and promote the benign development of tobacco planting.

【學位授予單位】：西南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X712;F326.12

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