發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-19 22:00

  本文選題：土地利用格局 + 景觀格局��； 參考：《西安科技大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái),隨著社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的提高,土地利用格局發(fā)生了明顯變化,自2009年天水市劃入關(guān)中-天水經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)后,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展致使大量耕地被占用,土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)合理性降低,因此,天水市土地生態(tài)安全存在一定風(fēng)險(xiǎn),科學(xué)判斷與預(yù)測(cè)土地生態(tài)安全程度具有一定的應(yīng)用價(jià)值。本文利用2005、2010和2015年天水市土地利用數(shù)據(jù),借助ArcGIS軟件進(jìn)行土地利用類型面積統(tǒng)計(jì)和分析。在此基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建CA-Markov模型預(yù)測(cè)了 2020年土地利用格局。運(yùn)用景觀生態(tài)學(xué),計(jì)算并分析了天水市在研究期間的景觀格局指數(shù)及生態(tài)服務(wù)價(jià)值總量。構(gòu)建研究區(qū)PSR模型,結(jié)合研究區(qū)實(shí)際情況及各景觀指數(shù)建立指標(biāo)體系進(jìn)行2005-2020年土地生態(tài)安全評(píng)價(jià),得到以下結(jié)論:(1)2005、2010和2015年天水市優(yōu)勢(shì)土地利用類型為耕地、林地、草地及建設(shè)用地。草地和建設(shè)用地變化較為活躍,變化幅度最大時(shí)分別達(dá)到1.3%和4.8%。耕地、林地變化較為平穩(wěn),變化幅度基本在0.5%左右。變化趨勢(shì)不明顯的土地利用類型為未利用地和水域。耕地減少部分主要轉(zhuǎn)移到林地、草地和建設(shè)用地;林地主要轉(zhuǎn)移到了草地;草地和未利用地的一部分主要轉(zhuǎn)移到耕地、林地和建設(shè)用地;建設(shè)用地和水域轉(zhuǎn)出較少。(2)利用CA-Markov模型模擬2020年天水市土地利用格局,以此分析未來(lái)5年土地利用格局變化趨勢(shì)以及2005-2020年景觀格局變化與生態(tài)價(jià)值總量,得出2015-2020年天水市土地利用變化趨勢(shì)穩(wěn)定,耕地和未利用地面積不斷減少,林地、草地和建設(shè)用地面積持續(xù)增加。景觀碎度高,各景觀要素之間趨向團(tuán)聚化。林地與草地面積增加使生態(tài)環(huán)境價(jià)值總量呈上升趨勢(shì),但人均生態(tài)環(huán)境價(jià)值減少,其主要原因是人口數(shù)量增長(zhǎng)。(3)借助PSR模型進(jìn)行2005-2020年天水市土地生態(tài)安全評(píng)價(jià),結(jié)果顯示,土地生態(tài)環(huán)境壓力指標(biāo)數(shù)值2005-2015年增加,而2015-2020年有所下降;土地生態(tài)環(huán)境狀態(tài)指標(biāo)數(shù)值處于增加趨勢(shì);土地生態(tài)環(huán)境響應(yīng)指標(biāo)數(shù)值先下降后上升�？傮w土地生態(tài)安全等級(jí):2005、2010年為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)級(jí),2015年為敏感級(jí),2020年達(dá)到良好級(jí)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the improvement of the level of social and economic development, the pattern of land use has changed obviously. Since Tianshui City was classified into Guanzhong Tianshui Economic Zone in 2009, the economic development has resulted in a large amount of cultivated land being occupied, and the rationality of land use structure has been reduced. Therefore, there are certain risks in land ecological security in Tianshui City, and scientific judgment and prediction of land ecological security degree have certain application value. In this paper, the land use data of Tianshui City in 2005 and 2015 are used to analyze the land use type area with the help of ArcGIS software. On this basis, CA-Markov model was constructed to predict the land use pattern in 2020. Based on landscape ecology, the index of landscape pattern and the total value of ecological service in Tianshui city were calculated and analyzed. The PSR model of the research area was constructed, and the index system was established to evaluate the land ecological security from 2005 to 2020 in combination with the actual situation of the study area and the landscape index. The following conclusions were obtained: the dominant land use types of Tianshui city in 2010 and 2015 were cultivated land and forest land. Grassland and construction land. The change of grassland and construction land was active, and the range of change was 1.3% and 4.8% respectively. The change of cultivated land and woodland is steady, the range of change is about 0.5%. The types of land use which have no obvious change trend are unused land and water area. The decrease of cultivated land is mainly transferred to woodland, grassland and construction land, woodland to grassland, part of grassland and unused land to cultivated land, woodland and construction land; CA-Markov model was used to simulate the land use pattern in Tianshui City in 2020, so as to analyze the change trend of land use pattern in the next five years and the change of landscape pattern and the total ecological value in 2005-2020. It is concluded that the trend of land use change in Tianshui City from 2015 to 2020 is stable, the area of cultivated land and unused land is decreasing, and the area of woodland, grassland and construction land continues to increase. The landscape fragmentation is high and the landscape elements tend to agglomerate. The increase of forestland and grassland area makes the total value of ecological environment increase, but the value of ecological environment per capita decreases. The main reason is that the population increase. The main reason is that the PSR model is used to evaluate the ecological security of land in Tianshui City from 2005 to 2020. The results show that: 1. The value of land eco-environmental pressure index increased from 2005 to 2015, but decreased in 2015-2020; the index value of land ecological environment state increased; the value of land ecological environment response index decreased first and then increased. The overall land ecological security level is 1: 2005, 2010 is the risk level, 2015 is the sensitive level, and 2020 is good.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F301.2;X826

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本文編號(hào)：1774900