發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-18 20:51

  本文選題：江西省 + 城市化��； 參考：《江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：眾所周知,水環(huán)境是占據(jù)著生態(tài)環(huán)境中非常重要的地位,同時(shí),也是保障人們生命安全和促進(jìn)社會(huì)走向健康發(fā)展的必要基礎(chǔ)。城市化的一步步發(fā)展,讓國(guó)家的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)取得了很大的進(jìn)步,然而發(fā)展的同時(shí)也給生態(tài)環(huán)境帶來(lái)了隱患,其中就包括水環(huán)境。近幾年我國(guó)各大城市水質(zhì)明顯下降,頻繁發(fā)生一系列水污染突發(fā)事件等問(wèn)題,引起我國(guó)政府和社會(huì)各界的密切關(guān)注。因此,從本質(zhì)上分析和理解水環(huán)境安全的內(nèi)涵,降低水環(huán)境所造成的安全隱患對(duì)城市進(jìn)展的妨礙,同時(shí),對(duì)水環(huán)境與城市化之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行深入研究,合理配置社會(huì)及自然資源,對(duì)城市化以及國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)健發(fā)展具有一定的正向作用。本文以江西省為例,系統(tǒng)綜述了國(guó)內(nèi)外城市化與水環(huán)境問(wèn)題研究進(jìn)展、江西省水環(huán)境現(xiàn)狀、水環(huán)境評(píng)價(jià)內(nèi)容、方法以及標(biāo)準(zhǔn)后,參照國(guó)內(nèi)外社會(huì)普遍采用的“壓力-狀態(tài)-響應(yīng)”模型,依照江西省近年來(lái)的具體實(shí)情,本文構(gòu)建出了江西省水環(huán)境安全評(píng)價(jià)體系,總共由3層27個(gè)指標(biāo)組成。使用了包括綜合應(yīng)用熵值法、函數(shù)評(píng)價(jià)法和綜合指數(shù)法在內(nèi)的一系列方法對(duì)江西省水環(huán)境安全狀況進(jìn)行了評(píng)估。結(jié)果表明:江西省水環(huán)境安全度的變化呈現(xiàn)出波浪式上升趨勢(shì),2006年至2009年間,江西省水環(huán)境安全處于第Ⅳ級(jí),即“中下”等級(jí)。2010年至2015年間,江西省水環(huán)境安全處于第Ⅲ級(jí),即“中”等級(jí),除個(gè)別年份有波動(dòng)外,江西省綜合安全整體處于改善上升趨勢(shì)。在綜合分析江西省2006—2015年間的水環(huán)境安全狀況后,本文參照灰色預(yù)測(cè)理論,采用GM(1,1)模型,以2006—2015年水環(huán)境安全度為原始數(shù)據(jù),經(jīng)精度檢驗(yàn),證明模型合格后,對(duì)江西省2016—2020年水環(huán)境安全度變化趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè),結(jié)果表明:江西省水環(huán)境綜合安全度在未來(lái)五年中呈現(xiàn)總體上升趨勢(shì)。自2016年起,預(yù)測(cè)江西省水環(huán)境綜合安全度將一直保持在“良”以上的較高水平,并于2019年正式進(jìn)入“優(yōu)”等級(jí)。社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)、生態(tài)環(huán)境、水環(huán)境三大系統(tǒng)綜合安全度曲線均呈正線上升趨勢(shì)。在2018年左右,社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)安全度預(yù)測(cè)曲線將同水環(huán)境系統(tǒng)綜合安全度預(yù)測(cè)曲線出現(xiàn)交叉情況,2018年后社會(huì)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)安全度預(yù)測(cè)曲線將位于水環(huán)境綜合安全度預(yù)測(cè)曲線上方。說(shuō)明社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)安全度的變化對(duì)于綜合安全度呈正向關(guān)系并且社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)安全度的發(fā)展快于綜合安全度的發(fā)展。最后,針對(duì)存在的問(wèn)題,結(jié)合江西省水環(huán)境安全現(xiàn)狀及趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)值,提出江西省水環(huán)境問(wèn)題治理及保護(hù)對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:As we all know, the water environment occupies a very important position in the ecological environment, at the same time, it is also the necessary foundation to ensure the safety of people's lives and promote the healthy development of the society.With the development of urbanization, great progress has been made in the social economy of our country. However, the development also brings hidden trouble to the ecological environment, including the water environment.In recent years, the water quality of the major cities in China has declined obviously, and a series of water pollution emergencies have occurred frequently, which has aroused the close attention of our government and all walks of life.Therefore, the connotation of water environment safety is analyzed and understood in essence, and the hindrance to the progress of city caused by water environment is reduced. At the same time, the relationship between water environment and urbanization is deeply studied.Rational allocation of social and natural resources has a positive effect on urbanization and the steady development of national economy.Taking Jiangxi Province as an example, this paper systematically summarizes the research progress of urbanization and water environment problems at home and abroad, the present situation of water environment in Jiangxi Province, the contents, methods and standards of water environment evaluation.Referring to the "pressure-state-response" model commonly used in domestic and foreign society, and according to the actual situation of Jiangxi Province in recent years, a water environment safety evaluation system of Jiangxi Province is constructed, which consists of 27 indexes.A series of methods, including entropy method, function evaluation method and comprehensive index method, are used to evaluate the water environment safety in Jiangxi Province.The results show that the change of water environmental safety in Jiangxi Province shows a wave-like upward trend. From 2006 to 2009, the water environmental safety of Jiangxi Province is in the fourth grade, that is, the "middle and lower" level. From 2010 to 2015, the water environmental safety in Jiangxi Province is in the third level.In other words, the level of "medium", except for the fluctuation in individual years, the overall comprehensive security in Jiangxi Province is on the rise.Based on the comprehensive analysis of the water environment safety in Jiangxi Province from 2006 to 2015, this paper, referring to the grey prediction theory, adopts the GM-1) model and takes the water environment safety degree from 2006 to 2015 as the original data. After the accuracy test, the model is proved to be qualified.The variation trend of water environmental safety in Jiangxi Province from 2016 to 2020 is predicted. The results show that the comprehensive safety degree of water environment in Jiangxi Province will increase in the next five years.Since 2016, it has been predicted that the comprehensive safety of water environment in Jiangxi Province will remain at a high level above "good" and will officially enter the "excellent" level in 2019.The comprehensive safety curves of social economy, ecological environment and water environment all show a positive upward trend.In 2018 or so, the prediction curve of social and economic system safety degree will cross with the comprehensive safety degree prediction curve of water environment system. After 2018, the prediction curve of social economic system safety degree will be located above the water environment comprehensive safety degree forecast curve.It shows that the change of the security degree of the social economic system is positively related to the comprehensive security degree and the development of the security degree of the social economic system is faster than that of the comprehensive security degree.Finally, in view of the existing problems, combined with the present situation and trend forecast value of water environment safety in Jiangxi Province, the countermeasures and suggestions for water environmental problems treatment and protection in Jiangxi Province are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：X824;F299.27

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 秦鵬;孫國(guó)政;秦植海;鐘好青;楊一凡;高健;;基于多元聯(lián)系數(shù)的水環(huán)境安全評(píng)價(jià)模型[J];數(shù)學(xué)的實(shí)踐與認(rèn)識(shí);2016年02期

2 余廣彬;朱茂杰;;城市化過(guò)程中環(huán)境污染效應(yīng)的研究進(jìn)展[J];安徽農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué);2015年29期

3 黃賓;;杭州城市化發(fā)展與水環(huán)境承載的關(guān)系研究[J];資源節(jié)約與環(huán)保;2015年08期

4 王建春;王琳;徐祥功;任麗軍;;濟(jì)南市城市化與水環(huán)境安全耦合協(xié)調(diào)分析[J];城市環(huán)境與城市生態(tài);2015年04期

5 馬朝;;城市化進(jìn)程對(duì)水文效應(yīng)影響分析及水文環(huán)境改善策略研究[J];國(guó)土與自然資源研究;2015年02期

6 黃賓;胡其昌;李霄;;城市化與水環(huán)境的耦合問(wèn)題研究——以杭州市為例[J];浙江水利水電學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2015年01期

7 梁艷芹;;論城市化對(duì)水文環(huán)境的影響——以石家莊城區(qū)為例[J];地下水;2014年05期

8 王吉蘋;薛雄志;;九龍江流域城市化進(jìn)程與水資源耦合關(guān)系的定量辨識(shí)[J];廈門大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2014年04期

9 鄒進(jìn);張友權(quán);潘鋒;;基于二元水循環(huán)理論的水資源承載力質(zhì)量能綜合評(píng)價(jià)[J];長(zhǎng)江流域資源與環(huán)境;2014年01期

10 薛亮;邱國(guó)玉;;快速城市化進(jìn)程中的西安水資源與水環(huán)境問(wèn)題[J];北方環(huán)境;2013年09期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 劉，

本文編號(hào)：1770034