本文選題：《巴黎協(xié)定》 + 國際環(huán)境智庫　； 參考：《中國人口·資源與環(huán)境》2017年09期

【摘要】：2016年《巴黎協(xié)定》的正式生效是全球環(huán)境治理的重要里程碑,是國際社會(huì)在應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的艱難進(jìn)程中邁出的重要一步,標(biāo)志著全球環(huán)境治理從此進(jìn)入履約階段。本文基于賓夕法尼亞大學(xué)智庫與公民社會(huì)項(xiàng)目(TTCSP)公布的《2015年全球智庫指數(shù)報(bào)告》,選取其中排名前十位的國際環(huán)境智庫的研究報(bào)告和環(huán)境領(lǐng)域中代表性學(xué)者的相關(guān)論文,對(duì)國外學(xué)術(shù)界有關(guān)《巴黎協(xié)定》履約前景的分析進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)梳理,并對(duì)此做出簡要評(píng)述。文章在肯定《巴黎協(xié)定》有力推進(jìn)國際氣候治理進(jìn)程的同時(shí),也指出在新的國際形勢(shì)之下,尤其是在英國正式啟動(dòng)脫歐進(jìn)程和特朗普新任美國總統(tǒng)后,其履約過程中更是存在著協(xié)定之內(nèi)和協(xié)定之外的眾多挑戰(zhàn)和不確定性,本文的基本結(jié)論如下:首先,協(xié)定之內(nèi)面臨著協(xié)定締約方國內(nèi)批準(zhǔn)程序上的挑戰(zhàn);國家自主貢獻(xiàn)的實(shí)現(xiàn)與發(fā)展中國家能力建設(shè);2℃溫升目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)前景;審評(píng)和盤點(diǎn)的效力評(píng)估;碳市場機(jī)制能否有效運(yùn)行。其次,協(xié)定之外面臨著英國脫歐的潛在氣候政策變化及影響;美國氣候政策的可能變化及其影響。基于對(duì)以上智庫報(bào)告和相關(guān)研究論文的分析,筆者對(duì)《巴黎協(xié)定》的履約前景得出幾點(diǎn)看法:(1)正視國際氣候合作的機(jī)遇與挑戰(zhàn);(2)對(duì)具體議題的落實(shí)需充滿信心;(3)理性冷靜看待英美氣候政策的可能變化;(4)鼓勵(lì)環(huán)境類國際組織之外的非國家行為體展開通力合作。對(duì)此,我們應(yīng)正視履約中的挑戰(zhàn)與不確定性,做好充分的應(yīng)對(duì)之策,確保履約進(jìn)程的順利完成�？傊�,《巴黎協(xié)定》的履約前景不容樂觀,國際社會(huì)任重道遠(yuǎn)。
[Abstract]:< > the 2016 Paris agreement came into effect is an important milepost in global environmental governance, is an important step towards the international community in the difficult process of climate change in the sign of global environmental governance entered the performance stage. In this paper, University of Pennsylvania think-tank and civil society based on the project (TTCSP) announced the global think tank index report > <2015 related papers, the representative scholars study selected among the top ten of the international environment and think tanks in the field of the environment, the analysis on the "Paris agreement > performance prospects in foreign academic circles systematically, and this article will make a brief review on the Paris agreement." > promote the international climate governance process at the same time also, pointed out that under the new international situation, especially from Europe and Trump officially launched the process of the new president of the United States in the UK, the compliance process is There is agreement within and outside the agreement many challenges and uncertainties, the basic conclusions of this paper are as follows: firstly, facing the agreement within the parties to the agreement on the challenges of domestic ratification procedures; the national independent contribution of implementation and capacity building in developing countries; realize the prospect of 2 DEG C temperature rise goals; inventory review and assess the validity of the carbon market; the mechanism can run effectively. Secondly, the agreement outside facing the potential climate policy change and influence of a British exit; may change US climate policy and its influence. The analysis report of think tanks and related papers based on the performance of the "Paris agreement" prospects that several points of view: (1) to face the opportunities and challenges international cooperation on climate change; (2) the specific issues need to be implemented with confidence; (3) changes may look cool climate policy common reason; (4) encourage environmental class international organizations outside The state actors are going to cooperate. In this regard, we should face up to the challenges and uncertainties in the performance and make full responses to ensure the successful completion of the performance process. In conclusion, the prospect of the implementation of the Paris agreement is not optimistic, and the international community has a long way to go.

【作者單位】： 北京大學(xué)國際關(guān)系學(xué)院;
【基金】：北京大學(xué)-樂施會(huì)合作項(xiàng)目“后馬拉喀什國際氣候治理機(jī)制創(chuàng)新研究”(批準(zhǔn)號(hào):BO2016)
【分類號(hào)】：P467;X321
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本文編號(hào)：1739733